Think Tanks and
Knowledge Generation
Risks and Rewards of
Working with the Federal
Government
Daniel S. Gaylin
Executive Vice President
May 15, 2011
Israel Democracy Institute Conference,
“What Do Think Tanks Do” Jerusalem
NORC Core Principles
Broad array of stakeholders
Long tradition of research
in the public interest
Excellence
• Highest academic and
methodological standards
• Ideological independence
and transparency
• Commitment to dissemination
Non-partisan, objective,
evidence based
Collegiality
Innovation
• Collaborative and open
partnerships
• Leadership in methods
and tools
• Interdisciplinary approach,
learning culture
• Breakthrough technologies
• Public discourse
• Flexible business and
funding models
2
Close Affiliate of the
University of Chicago
3
Economics and Population Studies
4
Violence, Criminal Justice and the Law
5
Health and Health Care
6
Early Childhood and Education
7
Security, Energy, and the Environment
8
International Development
Ghana Impact Evaluation
9
Academic Research Centers:
“Yes but does that work in theory?”
Center for in Science, Technology,
Engineering, and Mathematics
Cultural Policy Center
• Evidence Generation, Knowledge Accumulation, and
Principled Judgments
• Factors that Affect STEM Education and Learning
• Cultural Infrastructure
• Factors Affecting the Participation of Underrepresented
Groups in STEM Education and Research Careers
• Policies that Affects the Arts, Humanities and Cultural Heritage
Center for Excellence in
Survey Research
• Cutting-edge Statistical and Methodological Research on
Problems of Design and Sampling
• Execution and Analysis of Surveys
• Geospatial Mapping
• Humanities and Arts Indicators
• Arts Participation
Center for Education Research
• Sociology of Education
• Post-Secondary Education
• Education Policy and Quantitative Research Methods
• Mathematics Education
Center for Study of Politics
and Society
Population Research Center
• Societal and Religious Change and Models to Explain It
• Health
• Survey Research Methodology through Experiments and
Design Innovations
• Cross-national Research on Socio-demographic Sub-groups
• Poverty and Inequality
Center on Demography &
Economics of Aging
• The Social Context of Aging
• Biobehavioral Pathways
• Children, families, and marriage
• Method and Tools in Demographic Research
Center for the Study of
Social Organizations
• Social Networks in Various Social Contexts
• Health Care Research
• Behaviors and Social Structures Influencing STD Transmission
• Human Sexuality
• Social Relationships, Living Arrangements and Family
• Subjective Well-being
10
Think Tanks: Two Paths to
Knowledge Generation
Path1 : Focus on Private Funding
Cons
Pros
• Seen as clean
and unbiased
• Allows for
subjective
scholarship
• Smaller pot
• Often comes
with strings
• Potentially
diminishes
opportunities
for impact
• Less risk of
co-option
11
Think Tanks: Two Paths to
Knowledge Generation
Path 2 : Focus on Federal Funding
Cons
Pros
• Large pot
• Many highly
relevant
opportunities
• Increased
opportunity
for impact
• Increased risk
of bias
• Decreases
perceived
independence
• Subjective
scholarship is
more difficult
• Reduced
academic
freedom
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Path 2: Avoiding the Pitfalls
Ensure bipartisan
representation
among senior
scholars
Publish/disseminate
findings of all
projects regardless
of funder
Maintain a tradition of independent,
transparent scholarship
Multi-year studies
that develop into
objective knowledge
sources
Create Centers of Excellence with
acknowledged expertise
Expand and diversify the
consumers of data and research
Convene experts
on controversial
results
Diversify funding base: public
sector (branches), private funds
Conduct methods
research to
advance the state of
the science
FOIA is a key tool to
preserve independence
Use multiple funding
sources for
complementary or
replication studies
Avoid projects that
appear to promote
a political policy
agenda
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Data Knowledge Informed Decisions
Key Research Areas, Central Core
Conceptualization/Design
6
Data Collection
6
Advanced Methods & Analysis
6
Evaluation and Assessment
6
Policy Recommendations
6
Defining Knowledge Gaps
6
Knowledge and Discourse
6
14
General Social Survey: Tracking the Public’s
Attitudes on Key Social Issues for 40 Years
Trends of Attitudes toward
Sexual Behavior, 1973-2010
Trends of Free Speech, 1972-2010
Trends of Approving of Gender Equality,
1974-2010
100
100
%
90
80
%
A
l
l
o
w
i
n
g
90
100
A 80
l
w 70
a
y 60
s
70
%
90
F
o
r
50
W
r
o 40
n
g 30
60
50
20
40
30
Atheist
Communist
Racist
Militarist
10
Extra-marital sex
Teenage sex
Homosexual sex
Pre-marital sex
0
1972 1973 1974 1975 1977 1978 1982 1983 1985 1986 1988 1989 1990 1991 1993 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Year
20
Homosexual
10
Muslim Extremist
Trends in Overall and Domestic
Welfare Spending, 1973-2010
0
1972 1973 1974 1976 1977 1980 1982 1984 1985 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1993 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Year
80
70
G
e
n
d
e
r
60
50
40
E
q
u
a
l
i
t
y
Working mother OK for preschool children
Female working outside home?
Female in politics?
Working mother warm?
30
20
10
0
1974 1975 1977 1978 1982 1983 1985 1986 1988 1989 1990 1991 1993 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Year
50
S
45
u
p
p 40
o
r 35
t
Trends in Confidence in
Executive Branch of Federal Government
by Party Identification, 1973-2010
60
Nixon (1969-1974)
%
W
i
t
h C 40
o
G n
r f
e i
30
a d
t e
n
D c
e e 20
a
l
o
f
Domestic Social Spending
30
Trends in General and Marital Happiness,
1973-2010
f
o
25
r
S 20
p
e 15
n
d 10
i
n 5
g
100
General Happiness
Marital Happiness
0
Democratic
50
Overall Spending
Republican
90
1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1980 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1993 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Year
G.W. Bush (2001-2009)
Ford (1974-1977)
80
%
G.H.W. Bush (1989-
70
Carter (1977-1981) Reagan (1981-1989)
Obama (2009- )
Clinton (1993-2001)
Trends in Financial Satisfaction and
Satisfaction with Work, 1972-2010
V
e 60
r
y
50
H
40
a
p
30
p
y
20
10
10
0
0
1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1980 1982 1983 1984 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1993 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1980 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1993 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Year
Year
15
Florida Ballots Project: All Branches
of Government…and the Press
November 12, 2001
Study of Disputed Florida
Ballots Finds Justices Did
Not Cast the Deciding Vote
By FORD FESSENDEN and JOHN M. BRODER
A comprehensive review of the
uncounted Florida ballots from
last year's presidential election
reveals that George W. Bush would
have won even if the United States
Supreme Court had allowed the
statewide manual recount of the
votes that the Florida Supreme
Court had ordered to go forward.
16
Access to Information:
Possibility Frontier
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Optimizing Information Access:
Data Enclave
Optional facility
surveillance/User
authentication
Locked down thin client with
minimal software, hardware
authentication and selfmonitoring mechanisms
Network connection control
(fixed IP, no DNS resolution,
etc.)
•Access
sensitive data
per use
agreement
•Statistical
software
available for
analysis
•Interact with
other
researchers
•Receive
information
from data
producers
•Perform
computation
ally intensive
tasks
•Configure
environment
2-factor authentication
(optionally biometric)
Internet
Data
Area
Enclave Security & Support
Center monitors activity and
provide remote assistance
and system maintenance
Collaborative
Area
Customized
Virtual
Machine
DE Security/support Team
Data Enclave Desktop
(Windows Environment)
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Information Access: the Data Enclave as
An Illustration of Think Tank Impact
• Context: Commission investigates the
causes, domestic and global, of the 2008
financial and economic crisis.
• Issue: hedge fund data very sensitive,
difficult to obtain:
• risk of legal challenges
• incomplete reporting.
• funds given the “option”: enclave or subpoena
• Challenge: How to preserve firms’
confidentiality while also providing
analytically useful data and results?
• Solution: Data Enclave becomes “honest
broker” between private sector and
government
19
Advising (and learning from) Other
Think Tanks
Activities
• Training in research tools and effective
communication
• Strengthening institutional management
Short-Term Outcome
• Improved think tank performance
• Better informed public
Long-Term Outcome
• Improved efficiency of government
spending
• Improved government decision making
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Data Liberación!  (Inter)national
Indicators for the General Public
Source: State of the USA analysis of OECD data
21
Assisting the Executive Branch in
its Reports to the Legislative Branch
Medicaid and CHIP Payment
Commission (MACPAC) was created by
the Affordable Care Act of 2010.
Reviews Medicaid and CHIP operations
and financial status; makes policy
recommendations to Congress
This was Commission’s first report, as
required by the new legislation
Received widespread bipartisan
approval, notable given current climate
on Capitol Hill
22
Associated Press/NORC Center
for Public Affairs Research
Maximized Public Relevancy
Global Dissemination
STUDIES:
High Social Value
Objective, Non-Partisan
Journalistic Impact
Methodological/Scientific Rigor
Deep Subject Matter Expertise
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Please get in touch: gaylin-dan@norc.org
Thank You!