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responsibility for losses or gains made by members trading on their personal accounts based on analysis from HAWKTRADE meetings.

Announcements

Hurricane Sandy Devastates Northeast

Election Update

October Jobs Report

U.S. Earnings

Baidu and China Outlook

More Apple Trouble
Stock markets closed on Mon.,
Tues. as storm hobbles New York

Forced all U.S. Stock exchanges to close for first
time in over 20 years due to natural disaster.

Prompted discussion of having a back-up system
of some kind/ moving the finance district to area
like Arizona.

Millions still without power/ thousands of homes
destroyed.

Estimated costs as high as $60 Billion!
Flat for
Week
RCP Poll Average
States
Obama
Romney
Electoral Votes
Colorad0
Florida
Iowa
Nevada
48.4%
47.7%
48.0%
50.0%
47.4%
49.1%
46.0%
47.3%
9
29
6
6
New Hampshire
Ohio
Virginia
49.2%
49.3%
47.6%
47.4%
46.4%
47.9%
4
18
13
Wisconsin
50.4%
45.0%
10
Prior
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change 114,000
Consensus
Consensus Range
Actual
125,000
30,000 to 168,000
171,000
Unemployment Rate - Level
7.8 %
7.9%
7.8 % to 8.0 %
7.9%
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M
change
0.3 %
0.2 %
0.1 % to 0.3 %
0.0 %
Av Workweek - All Employees
34.5 hrs
34.5 hrs
34.5 hrs to 34.5 hrs
34.4 hrs
Private Payrolls - M/M change
104,000
120,000
104,000 to 167,000 184,000
Fri 23 Nov. 2 | 8:30 AM ET
Santelli Argues over jobs
numbers

Reported earnings on Thursday


Expected earnings: $6.31 Billion, $1.93 per
share
Q3 Profit: $6.1 Billion (down 15%)

Q3 Revenue: $115.43 Billion (down 8.4%)

2.98 million barrels of oil and equivalents per
day, down from 3.01 a year ago
Expected Expected Q3 2011
EPS
Revenue EPS
Q3 2011
Revenue
Q3 2012
EPS
Q3 2012
Revenue
$2.83
$61.3
Billion
$2.69
$56 Billion





$67 Billion $3.92
Reported earnings on Friday
Production fell
Sold oil and gas at lower prices
August refinery fire hurt refining business
Gulf of Mexico operations hurt from Hurricane
Isaac
 Stock price falls on weak earnings
 Closed at 108.37
3.09(2.77%)
 1 year % change:
3.66%
 Beat estimates of $1.95 EPS with earnings of $2.09, but down
from 3Q 2011
 Revenue beat forecasts, but down 8% from 3Q 2011
 Stock closed on Thursday at $91.60 up $.43
 Stock declined on Friday compared to Oil and Gas Industry
Production: 3.96 million barrels day (down 7.5%)
Movement of drilling equipment to areas of higher
concentrations of oil, since it is more profitable
 Production should begin to increase


Company:
Revenue
Net Income
Chevron
$230.56 Billion
$26.63 Billion $13.43
8.07
Exxon
$434.82 Billion
$45.09
Billion
9.51
BP
$376.60 Billion
$17.26 Billion $5.38
7.9
Industry
$120.95 Billion
N/A
10.75


EPS
$9.49
$2.53
P/E
Sluggish global economy has cut demand.
Revenue has decreased due to lower oil and
natural gas prices, and lower production.
Company
E.P.S.
Stock Reaction
Visa
Positive
+3.77%
MasterCard Positive
+1.64%
3.34%
Beat EPS estimate
of $1.50 by $.04 or 2.67%

Posted revenues
of $2.73B against
the $2.52B estimate

Total processed
transactions up

4.1 B cards, firmly
ahead of MasterCard

Beat EPS expectations
of $5.92 by $.25 or 4.22%

Posted revenue of
$1.92B which missed
expectations of $1.94B

Increase in total
Processed transactions


Up to 1.9B cards
1.85%

The Confidence Board index of confidence reached 72.2,
the highest since February 2008. Up from 40.9 a year
ago.

Goal of 90 that is consistent with a healthy economy

“We see extraordinary opportunity for growth in the
payments industry.“ –MasterCard Management
Reporting
Company
Ford Motor
Co (F)
General
Motors Co
(GM)



Surprise Type
Percent
surprise
Stock Reaction
Positive
32.9%
8.01% Up
Positive
55.8%
10.7 % Up
October sales – best in 5 years
Expects high sales level to continue into 2013
Dodge Ram and Caravan sales up big



Surprisingly strong profit
Expecting full year operating loss of $1.5 t0
$1.8 billion in Europe
Targeting return to breakeven levels middecade
 Cutting jobs in Europe
 Reducing fixed costs – target of $500 million

Good not great outlook
Wed 31 Oct 12 | 07:51 AM ET
GM Q3 Earnings Big Beat

Profit trounced expectations
 +33% surprise in EPS


Record high profit margins in North America
Hurt in Europe
 Announced three plant closures


First profit in Asia Pacific/Africa since second
quarter 2011
Margins will decrease, but optimism remains

The company had revenue of 994.6 million
for the quarter, compare to the consensus
estimate of 998.37 million.

Baidu was downgrade by analysts at
Citigroup from a buy rating to sell rating.

Credit Suisse set Baidu price target at 82.
Now traded at 106
5 YR.
156%

Google acquired and merged more than a
hundred companies, in which includes map
analysis, advertising, mobile software, video,
etc.

Baidu mainly focus on search engine, which
includes text search, domain search, music
search, people search, etc.

If Google can be unblocked?


18th National Congress of the
Communist Party of China on Nov.
9, 2012
Unveil the policies and decisionmaking for the next 4 years

China’s manufacturing industry enjoyed an
improvement in trading conditions during October,
with the latest HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index™
coming in at 49.5 – up from 47.9 the previous month.

The upward swing was in part thanks to a rise in new
orders – the first increase for a year.

Although the rate of contraction slowed in October,
the figure of 49.5 still represents the 12thmonth in a
row in which the industry has shrunk.
Only 2 Meetings Left!!
Guest Speaker Next Week
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