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Under embargo to 11 September 2012 (00.01 GMT)
Contact: Jean Zheng
Phone: +86 21 20896089
Fax: +86 21 58782661
jean.zheng@cn.manpowergroup.com
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Reveals:
Hiring confidence among Chinese employers declines for the second
consecutive quarter but remains positive in Q4 2012
Government to emphasize market stabilization plans to boost growth amid the current downturn
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Employers in the Services and Transportation & Utilities sectors anticipate a strong Q4
hiring pace and report the most optimistic job prospects
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Hiring intentions are the most optimistic in first-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai,
while the hiring pace is expected to slow in Guangzhou quarter-over-quarter and
year-over-year
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Employers in Taiwan, India, Panama and Brazil report the strongest fourth-quarter hiring
plans globally.
11 September 2012 [Shanghai, China]
The fourth quarter 2012 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey report released by ManpowerGroup, the
world leader in innovative workforce solutions, reveals that Chinese employers anticipate a weaker hiring
pace in the last three months of 2012. One out of every five employers plan to increase their payrolls and
nearly half say they will hold on to the staff they have in Quarter 4. The Outlook remains positive in all
industry sectors and regions. China’s Net Employment Outlook2 of +14% (Seasonally Adjusted1) is 5
percentage points weaker quarter-over-quarter, and declines by 7 percentage points year-over-year.
ManpowerGroup interviewed nearly 66,000 employers around the globe, including 4,277 employers in
mainland China, to measure employers’ intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees in
their organizations between October and December 2012. In Q4 2012, 20 percent of Chinese employers
expect to increase their workforces, while only 4 percent plan to decrease the number of employees on
staff.
"We’re seeing markets across the globe downshift,” said Danny Yuan, Managing Director for
ManpowerGroup China. “And we’re seeing little evidence of anything that might fuel a market rebound.
The deepening debt crisis in Europe impacts businesses throughout China, and this might point to a
prolonged slowdown for Chinese businesses. The government is taking steps to boost employer hiring
confidence by confronting sluggish market conditions and rising labor costs. These include further easing
of monetary policies, such as slashing interest rates twice this year. Additionally, employers are exploring
alternative employment models, such as mixed full- and part-time working, to improve employment
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efficiency and reduce labor costs. However, skilled talent and high-end professional talent are still in
great demand, and all stakeholders may need to take more ‘active’ measures such as providing more
relevant training programs in order to gradually solve the structural talent shortage issue.”
Employers in the Services and Transportation & Utilities industry sectors anticipate a
strong Q4 hiring pace and report the most optimistic job prospects
Employers in all six industry sectors ManpowerGroup surveys forecast positive hiring plans during
Quarter 4 2012. However, Net Employment Outlooks decline or remain relatively stable in five sectors in
a quarter-over-quarter comparison.
Employers in the Services and Transportation & Utilities industry sectors report the strongest hiring
intentions with Net Employment Outlooks of +22%, and the Outlook improves 4 percentage points
compared with the previous quarter, while weakening 1 percentage point year-over-year. In the Services
sector, the Net Employment Outlook declines 1 percentage point both quarter-over-quarter and
year-over-year. However, the appetite to hire within the country’s Manufacturing sector stands at the
weakest level in three years as companies struggle with low demand from European markets, in addition
to challenges presented by ongoing wage arbitrage and skills shortages.
Q4 2012 Employment Outlook of 6 Industry Sectors
Net Employment Outlook(%)
FINANCE, INSURANCE & REAL ESTATE
+16%
MANUFACTURING
MINING & CONSTRUCTION
+15%
+10%
SERVICES
+22%
TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES
+22%
WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADE
+13%
Source: Manpower Employment Outlook Survey
Yuan said: “The Intelligent Transportation Development Strategy (2012-2020) issued by China’s Ministry
of Transport is expected to help maintain China’s transportation infrastructure at the leading edge and be
fully implemented by 2020. This ongoing effort will likely fuel employment growth throughout the sector.
Meanwhile, top Chinese leaders have decided to boost domestic demand in the second half of 2012, and
this is expected to help Service sector organizations maintain stable growth.”
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Employers in Beijing report strongest hiring pace, while Chengdu employers forecast
the weakest hiring intentions among the nine regions and cities3.
Employers from the South, North, East, and Central & West regions, as well as five cities, report varying
degrees of positive hiring plans in the fourth quarter of 2012. Among the regions, employers in North and
East anticipate the most active hiring pace and both report Outlooks of +13%. As for cities, employers in
Beijing report the most optimistic hiring intentions and the Outlook stands at a respectable +19%, a 1
percentage point improvement quarter-over-quarter, followed by Shanghai with an Outlook of +16%.
Employers in Chengdu report the weakest hiring intentions with a hopeful Outlook of +10%, a drop of 6
percentage points quarter-over-quarter and a more considerable decline of 14 percentage points from
4Q 2011. In response to growing operational costs in the coastal areas and sluggish overseas demand,
the region’s labor market continues to weaken despite the ongoing transfer of business operations to the
country’s inland and western regions.
Q4 2012 Net Employment Outlook of 9 cities and regions
Net Employment Outlook(%)
BEIJING
+19%
SHANGHAI
+16%
GUANGZHOU
+14%
SHENZHEN
CHENGDU
+12%
+10%
NORTH
SOUTH
EAST
CENTRAL & WEST
+13%
+11%
+13%
+12%
Source: Manpower Employment Outlook Survey
Globally, strongest hiring intentions reported in Taiwan, India, Panama and Brazil
Globally, the ManpowerGroup research shows varying degrees of positive hiring activity in 31 of the 42
countries and territories with the strongest fourth-quarter forecasts coming from employers in Taiwan,
India, Panama and Brazil. Compared to the third quarter, hiring activity is expected to be improved in 11
labor markets and weaken in 24. Compared to one year ago, job prospects weaken in 30 countries and
territories, and improve or remain relatively stable in only nine. Worldwide, employer hiring expectations
are weakest in Greece and Italy.
Employers in each of the eight Asia Pacific countries and territories participating in the Manpower
Employment Outlook Survey report positive fourth-quarter hiring intentions. However, Outlooks decline in
seven of eight countries and territories quarter-over-quarter and drop in all eight year-over-year. Taiwan’s
robust Outlook (+32%) is fueled by expectations of a vigorous labor market in the Services sector where
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nearly half of all employers intend to add to their workforces in the last three months of the year in
response to continuing demand in the Tourism subsector.
The fourth quarter hiring outlook across the 24 Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) countries are
mixed. Hiring activity expected to be relatively stable or improved in 13 of the 24 countries. However,
negative hiring intentions are reported in nine countries. Regional hiring plans are strongest in Turkey,
Romania, Israel and Norway, and weakest in Greece.
Employer hiring plans remain positive across all 10 countries Manpower surveys in the Americas, with
Net Employment Outlooks improving in four countries and declining in four from three months ago. In a
year-over-year comparison, Net Employment Outlooks improve in four countries and decline in five.
Regional hiring expectations are strongest in Panama, Brazil and Peru, and weakest in Argentina.
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is available free of charge to the public through
http://cn.manpowergroup.com/en/meos.html. The next Manpower Employment Outlook Survey will be
released on 11 December 2012 to report hiring expectations for the first quarter of 2013.
Note To Editor
1.
Seasonally adjusted data is a statistical process that allows us to present the survey data without
the effect of fluctuations that normally occur through the course of the year, as a result of seasonal
events such as changes in weather, public holidays, etc. Removal of the seasonal effect gives us
the ability to observe the current labor market trends more meaningfully. All industry sector data
reported above is seasonally adjusted. Regional and city data has not been adjusted to account for
seasonal variation.
2.
The Net Employment Outlook is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an
increase in hiring activity less the percentage of employers who expect to reduce their workforces.
3.
Since Q1 2012, the previous 16 cities surveyed in China are collected into 9 regions and cities. The
five cities include Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Chengdu. The four regions
include North, South, East and Central & West. The North region includes Beijing, Tianjin, Dalian
and Chengdu, while the South region includes Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Xiamen and Changsha. The
East region includes Shanghai, Nanjing, Suzhou and Hangzhou; and the Central & West region
includes Chengdu, Chongqing, Xi’an and Wuhan.
Full survey results for each of the 42 countries and territories included in this quarter’s survey, plus
regional and global comparisons, can be found in the ManpowerGroup Press Room at
http://www.manpowergroup.com/press/meos.cfm. In addition, all tables and graphs from the full report
are available to be downloaded for use in publication or broadcast from the ManpowerGroup Web site at
http://www.manpowergroup.com/press/meos_landing.cfm
About the Survey
The global leader in innovative workforce solutions, ManpowerGroup releases the Manpower
Employment Outlook Survey quarterly to measure employers’ intentions to increase or decrease the
number of employees in their workforce during the next quarter. It is the longest running, most extensive,
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forward-looking employment survey in the world, polling nearly 66,000 employers in 42 countries and
territories. The survey serves as a bellwether of labor market trends and activities and is regularly used to
inform the Bank of England’s Inflation Reports, as well as a regular data source for the European
Commission, informing its EU Employment Situation and Social Outlook report the Monthly Monitor.
ManpowerGroup’s independent survey data is also sourced by financial analysts and economists around
the world to help determine where labor markets are headed.
About ManpowerGroup China
ManpowerGroup™, the world leader in innovative workforce solutions, first entered mainland China
market in 1994. We offer a wide array of workforce solutions and services.
As the leader in professional resourcing and project-based workforce solutions in mainland China, we
provide middle management to C-suite executive search & selection (headhunting) and professional
solutions through the Experis™ brand. We serve more than 4,500 clients, who include foreign-based
multinationals and local companies, and have over 500,000 middle-to-senior candidates in our database.
As one of the largest staffing service providers in Mainland China, Manpower ®, a working brand of
ManpowerGroup, offers services including contingency staffing, payroll, outsourcing, talent cultivating,
workforce solutions and government solutions. We have over 170,000 associates and a self-owned
network of 40 cities, and the services are extended to 100+ cities through cooperation and alliance.
Additionally, we provide talent and career management workforce solutions through the Right
Management® brand, the global leader in talent and career management consulting.
ManpowerGroup China, as a socially responsible organization, also assumed responsibility to build and
operate the Manpower Ningqiang Elementary School in the quake-hit region of Wenchuan.
ManpowerGroup China: www.cn.manpowergroup.com
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