Nancy H. Watson
Lawton Chiles High School
APHG Development Committee
NCGE, Memphis
August 2, 2014
*
Predicted population
would outrun food supply,
leading to a decrease in
food per person.
300
250
200
Assumptions
*Populations grow
exponentially.
*Food supply grows
arithmetically.
*Food shortages and chaos
inevitable.
Population
150
Food
100
50
0
1
2
3
Food
2
4
8
16
4
Population
2
4
16
256
* Current thinkers
* Worried about all resources, not just food
*
*
*Pronatalist policy (expansive) – population policies
to increase population growth.
*Antinatalist policy (restrictive) – population
policies to slow population growth by reducing
births
*Demographic momentum – continued population
increase despite reproductive declines due to large
young cohorts.
*Demographic Dividend—the accelerated economic
growth initiated by a decline in fertility and the
resulting shift in the population age structure.
*And Now A video
*With your partner:
*Read through each of the
four case studies
*Summarize each in your
notes, in your own words
*Pro or Anti Natalist?
*What strategies?
*What results?
*
* 1979 – Chinese couples were asked to pledge to have only
one child (after the first UN Population Conference)
* Incentives included
* Free prenatal care
* Rewards – larger houses, larger salaries, promotions
* Better (sometimes free) education for only children
* Paid maternity leave (3 – 6 months)
* Birth control costs paid by the government
* Consequences of more than one child
* Could be demoted or even fired from jobs
* 2nd child cannot be registered, so they do not legally exist
*
* Unexpected consequences:
imbalance in males/females
* After 1984 exceptions for second
child included
* If both parents were only children
* If the first child is disabled
* In rural areas, if the first child is
a girl
* Remarried couples
* Minority couples
* More recently
* If either wife or husband is an
only child
*
* Since 1972 deaths have exceeded births in Germany
* A positive net migration has prevented a more rapid population
decline
* Fertility rates in the former East and West Germany were similar until
the mid 1970’s
* Under Communist rule, East Germany instituted several pro-natalist
policies and fertility rose until reunification.
*
Incentives included:
* A family allowance
* Maternity leave
* Child subsidies
*
* Fertility Rates in West Germany have remained below 1.5
children since 1975
* Lack of confidence in the economic future
* Mothers who leave their children in day care are called “raven mothers”
because ravens abandon their young at an early age.
* To increase the birth rate, the government:
* gives 184 euros per month for a first and second child, 190 euros for a
third, and 215 for a fourth child until each turns 18 (or 25, if still in school)
* Maternity leave spans 14 weeks (6 weeks prior to the birth and eight weeks
after) with a minimum13 euros per day in salary.
* Efforts to raise fertility in Germany (pro-natalist policies) have
been costly and unsuccessful
* With an increase of TFR to just 1.6 and an annual net migration
of 200,000, Germany’s population would decrease to 74.5 million
in 2060 (down from 82.3 million in 2006) with almost a third of
the population being over 65 years of age.
Age and Sex Structure of Germany, 2009 and 2050
* Results:
*
Population Reference Bureau
*
*
* Between 1999 & 2009, Kenya’s population increased by 1
million every year.
* Kenya developed the Vision 2030 plan
* High population growth ≠ sustainable high quality of life
* Antinatalist policies aim to reduce the TFR from 5 in 2009 to 3
by 2030.
* Includes targets for child mortality, maternal mortality, life
expectancy, and other reproductive health measures.
* Input was solicited from public, private, religious, and
governmental leaders to create ownership of the policy.
* The PRB developed multimedia presentations, videos, and
publications to be shared at national and county levels to raise
awareness about family planning.
* Rapid Population growth & more rapid urbanization may be
POSITIVE for Kenya’s future. Kenya is in a position to benefit
from “demographic dividend”
* Kenya has an educated workforce and dynamic service industry
which are key for developing a strong middle class and benefit
from a Demographic Dividend.
* Number of children per family has fallen: 8.1 in 1978 to 3.5 in 2014.
* But demographic momentum continues the population increase
* The fastest growing population groups are 15–64 years –working age!
* Forecast from 22 million working age today to 56 million in 2050.
* Kenyans are living longer
*
*
*Demographic Dividend –accelerated economic growth
initiated by a decline in fertility resulting in a shift in the
population age structure.
*Initiating Demographic Change – rapid fertility
decline through investment in family planning, child
survival, and education of girls
*Improving Health – healthy children do better in
school, resulting in a more highly skilled labor force
*Investing in Education – youth complete school to gain
skills for a changing labor market.
*Implementing Economic & Government Policies – to
foster job growth, invest in labor intensive sectors,
and incentives for foreign direct investment
* Iran has never had more people of reproductive age (about
70% are younger than 35), yet the TFR is just1.4, far below
replacement.
* Most Iranians live in urban areas
* Most are pessimistic about their economic future
* Many fear political instability
* Many are unwilling to bring children into an uncertain world
*
NYTimes
*
* Iran’s population policies have been erratic
* After the 1979 Revolution the birthrate was 3.6, so a “fewer kids,
better lives” campaign was implemented to bring the rate down
* After the Iran-Iraq war the government’s pro-natalist policy and hope
for a better future led to larger families
* Due to the below replacement TFR, Iran has just begun a 14 point
program to double the population by 2050
* Hospital delivery is free
* Longer maternity leave for women
* Gov’t eliminated subsidies for birth control
* Parents with five children are eligible for $1500 bonus (but not many
have been tempted.)
*
* Singapore partnered with Mentos mints for “National Night”
* Rapper for Mentos, “Singapore’s population, it needs some
increasing/So forget waving flags, August 9th we be freaking… I’m a
patriotic husband, you’re my patriotic wife, so let’s do our civic
duty and manufacture life. The birth rate ain’t goin’ spike itself!”
* Singapore’s Urban Redevelopment Authority has limited small onebedroom flats
* Singapore offers $15,000 parental packages for each child, tax
incentives, and extended maternity leave.
* Russia’s policy of “Have a baby, win a fridge, money, or even
a car!” if a baby is born 9 months after September 12 (the
Day of Conception) has had some success.
* Started in 2007, it seemed to still be working.
*
* South Korea “Lights Out” in its offices at 7PM on the
3rd Wednesday of each month – called “Family Day” to
help staff “get dedicated” to childbirth and
upbringing.
* Policies of the 1970’s and 1980’s to promote smaller families are
being reversed
* South Korean government promised to halve tuition fees for
state-run childcare, and
* Began a campaign to weaken the perception that a college
degree is necessary for success
* Cash gifts and incentives are offered to have more than one
child
* Japan suffers from a seriously low birthrate, so college
students at the University of Tsukuba created, Yotaro
* a robot baby to stimulate parental emotions to promote making
a real baby.
*
A class investigation …
• View the PRB: Changing the Population Age Structure and/or Harnessing
the Demographic Dividend
• Assign each group a country experiencing population growth or decline
• Possible countries:
*
*
*
*
*
Niger
Hungary
Indonesia
Bosnia-Hertzegovina
Ethiopia
Bangladesh
Brazil
Australia
Rwanda
Mexico
Thailand
Canada
South Korea
Honduras
Spain
• use the Population Reference Bureau Data Sheet to find the demographic
data to complete the chart.
• analyze the data to predict the population trend of the country and its
potential for realizing the Demographic Dividend.
• Students should create a poster with the Demographic Data, a national
map of the country, two Population Pyramids for the country, and an
analysis of the population policy needed to ensure economic progress.
*Google: PRB Data Sheet 2014
*2nd search result [PDF]
*Populationpyramid.net
*
*
* PRB: Population Bulletin: The World at 7 Billion
* Germany: Beyond the Transition’s End
* PRB:Changing the Population Age Structure & Harnessing the
Demographic Dividend
* NYT: Germany Fights Population Drop. August, 2013.
* Daily Mail: German population plummets as Quarter of men say ‘no’
to kids. August, 2013.
* PRB: Population Dynamics
* New Kenyan Population Policy a Model for Other Countries
* Malawi’s Pathway to a Demographic Dividend
* Fertility Declining in the Middle East and North Africa
* Business Daily: Kenya can turn its rising population into growth tool.
April, 2010
* NYT: Urged to Multiply, Iranian Couples Are Dubious. June, 2014
* Mental Floss: 5 Creative Ways Countries Tried to up Their Birth Rates.
March, 2014