Franchising Complexity:
how to profit from transcending the linear
paradigm in education
Authors:
Carmen Costea,
Constantin Popescu,
Alexandru Tasnadi
Academy of Economic Studies
Bucharest Romania
Sponsors for this research:
GIACS 12380/2005 and IDEA II 774/2007
Email of correspondence: cecostea@ase.ro
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The Complexity of the Living Entity
a national funded project through IDEA II 774/2005
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The world is changing. So changes our attitude and expectations requiring
new approaches of
life and profit. Profit seen in different challenging ways
(money, experience, knowledge)
Ancient Chinese Science – Feng-Shui - promoted the Profit of Life (as a space
harmony with the environment) under the Law of Heaven and Earth knowledge.
We easily identify there the feedback value of own thoughts.
The goal of Feng-Shui, as practiced today, is to situate the human built
environment on spots with good qi, while areas not suitable for human
settlement should remain in their natural state.
These unusual tools have reliable correspondents in the western
management practices, life, finances and personal relationships.
Every day life teaches us, a lesson that science has only recently acknowledged,
that life is complex. From pseudo science to alternative approach, from
placebo effect to self-motivation the oriental and western theories praise
formally and eloquently the need of durable development as fulfilment
and harmony, a better life inside a sounder society and environment (as a
living entity) where people need to learn, think and consider, the role of the
community and the value of being.
People have reacted in very different ways towards the alleged benefits of
these unusual tools that have reliable correspondents into the management
practices, on one's life, finances or relationships.
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1.
As a
teacher:
what you
get is what
you teach
2. As a
business
owner:
what you
get is what
you finance
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Consequences of a long run of development
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We are in the situation to rethink both Science and Development of Life under a
new approach, of education: Uni-dimensional vs Multi-dimensional
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This is why we promote a new way of considering the real meaning of education and
analyse it, under the label of “E” Theory (of sound education, effusiveness,
social emancipation, elegance of thinking and economic emergence).
We sustain a new philosophy of life and action within economies and societies. This
does not exclude at all, the ancient knowledge and experience.
People need to learn, think and consider, the role of the community and the
value of being.
This is the high time for universities to take the challenges from the dominant
mindset, to the new ways of learning and understanding the complex approaches of
education based on mutual obligation. Moreover, they have the obligation to share
and disseminate this knowledge too.
Franchising the knowledge (SHAPE THE CHANGE)
This new perspective = Capitalizing the added value by PRO-ACTIVE autogovernance : agility, flexibility, versatility, adaptability
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Characteristics of the new type of education
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Opportunity/scoping
Commitment to action
Self motivation and assumed
responsibility
Constant innovation
Flawless execution
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Good learning
Good jobs
Good quality of employers
(Family) spousal coverage
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Look in: Enhance CI practices
Look out: Learn about best of
others
Look ahead :Opportunity
/Scoping
Take action: Move execute, and
raise the bar
Trends:
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Status spheres: traditional, transient,
online, eco, giving, participative
Premiumization
Snack culture
Online Oxygen
Eco-ionic
Brand Butlers
Make it yourself
Crowd mining
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From the linear educational system to the non linear
educational system
Et
Linear Paradigm
Et+1
Non-linear Paradigm
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Risks
Oportunities
Rules
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Multi-culturalism
Labor migration
Networks (transport,
internet)
Sensors : Education, Society, Environment
Standards:
New ASSETS
helping to reconsider the
value and economic
approaches based on
institutional and
ideological needs for
changements
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Use Technology to make educational inroads by Xcellence of Science
Networking
 Perform Distributed measurements - portable interrogators, using fiber
optics applied to map temperature changes in classes (interferometry,
difraction and spectrometry, photonic crystals or other optical switches
 Manipulate light makes sense in using new sensors to develop applied
science at societal level
 Well versed in spotting advantages to be able to identify opportunities
A solution could refer to several different types of the first short cycles.
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Efficiency seems not be shared by all
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More analyzes,
New indicators
capitalized
returned added value
The key....
Consumption - not only a
concept or a culture
a measurable integrated
culture underlining the
trends, the risk of
authenticity, external
assets integrated in the
world economy.
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A potential model
♦ It may permit to emphasise the relationships between quantities (Objectives), of
different dimensions, in connection with other quantities (parameters), important in
higher education according Bologna Convention.
♦ Each quantity is defined such as to be easily understood its physics dimensions
and easily quantified for the later development and the use of the physical model
by sociologists and economists.
♦ A temporary quasi stability is supposed (small relatives values of the derivatives)
in the evolution: of population number, of its age and education distribution and of
its academic behaviour, during education.
♦ The model will only be exploited qualitatively.
♦ Later on, this model may be developed as to include yearly and specific
variations and fed with quantified values of the considered quantities, get upon
field studies or literature research.
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Potential Conclusions: right “E” approaches, strategies, behaviour
Data sources:
National Office of Statistics
National Commission of Economic Forecasting
Ministry of Education and Research
Institute of Academic Education
Ministry of Finance
Ministry of Labour
Ministry of Home Affairs
NGOs Report
Governmental Agencies
Corporate
Family
State
Model
Iterative fluctuation,
Trajectory
Fixed points
Attractors
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A possible MODEL to be applied
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♦ Let us consider the Environment we refer to (region, country, state, federation, union) as having
a population of P members and a class population of PE , representing that part of
population born along one year, at an age corresponding to the normal age of enrolment in
Higher Education (HE).
 Let pe , equal to [1]
pe = Pe / P
be referred to as the proportion of population at the normal age of enrolment in HE.
 Let Sne be the number of newly enrolled students in the HE institutions of the considered
Society, during one academic year. Sne , the number of newly enrolled students, may include
initial students and adult students.
 The quantity a, equal to: [2]
a = Sne / Pe , could be defined as the rate of access to
enrolment in HE (shortly – academic access).
* model
presented by prof Radu Chisleag Politechnica University of Bucharest at ENEC Pitesti March 2008
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♦
Therefore, Sne, is equal to:
[3] Sne = a * Pe = a * pe * N.
Let d (0 < d < 1) be the dropout rate for one year of study.
Let f (0< f < 1) be the failure rate during one year of study.
Let Sbe be defined as the total number of students at the beginning of
the first academic year.
♦
Because of the dropout, the total number of students remaining enrolled
at the end of that academic year, Seed , is
[4] Seed = (1 - d) * Sbe
♦
Because of a still present rate of failure at the beginning of the new year,
the total number of students at the beginning of the first year becomes:
[5] Sbe = [1 + f(1-d)] * Sne = [1 + f(1-d)] * a * Pe = [1 + f(1-d)] * a * pe * N.
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♦ Now, considering the effects of
the dropout and failure, in the first
approximation, the number of equivalent students at the end of one year of study,
Seedf , is equal to:
[6] Seedf = (1-d) * [1 + f(1-d)] * Sne = (1-d) * [1 + f(1-d)] * a * pe * N ,
smaller than the number of totally financed students in that year of study.
♦
The number of students graduating during one academic year, Sg , is smaller
than Sne (at the beginning of the cycle), due to the dropout (here considered of
constant rate, for each of the T years of study):
[7 a] Sg = Sne * (1-d)T < Sne .
♦ If the dropout rate, d, be small (like for prestige universities), we might approximate
equation [7 a] with:
[7 b] Sg = ~ Sne * (1-T d) .
♦ The rate of access to graduation, ag , may be defined as:
[8]
ag = Sg / Pe = Sg / peN = a * (1-d)T < a .
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♦ For a T years cycle, because of failures, the average actual duration of study of
a graduate is not more T , but Ta , approximately equal to:
[9 a ] Ta =T * (1+f)R > T,
where R is the number of yearly failures permitted by the existing academic
regulations.
♦ For a small failure rate, f, we may write a linear relationship for [9 a]:
[9 b]
Ta = ~ T * (1 + R * f).
♦ For a cycle of T years normal length, the number of financed years of study per
graduate, Tfg , is no more T but, considering the both rates of failure f and of dropout d
(that means the financing of students who are failing and/or not graduating)
covered by the society (public funding), is:
[10 a] Tfg = T * (1+f)R * (1-d)-L,
where L is the length in years the dropouts be financed by the education system.
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 We have to accept that, in democratic societies, where there is required that all
students have to comply with the same academic standards and the admission
selection is based mainly upon merit (and even upon excellence for a few
universities), an increase in the academic access rate, a, would probably mean an
increase in both f, the rate of failure and d, the dropout rate.
 More, because the increase in the academic access a is meant to address not only
initial but adult students, the new segment of the adult students are to probably do more
non-academic work during studies, than the initial students, as to ensure the living
expenses for them and sometimes for their dependants, and be academically less
performant (due to lack of continuity, too) this, again, meaning an increase in both
failure, f , and dropout d rates, when increasing a .
 Consequently, Tfg is rather strongly increasing with the increase of a and
correspondingly, ag / a are, in turn, decreasing when a is increasing.
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The total number of students enrolled and financed in a T-year cycle, Sc is :
[12]
Sc = Sg * Tf g > Sg * Ta > Sg * T
 Thus, enlarging democratic access to higher education (essentially accompanied by
the increasing in failure and dropout rates), means increasing of Sc and Tfg and
consequently, a larger relative increase in the number of teachers than of the rate of
access.
 Thus HE may be considered as a generator of demand of services (of education)
and consequently a generator of jobs, not only a consumer of public resources.
Therefore, the perception of the social effect of increasing the rate of access might,
eventually, be positive.
 Let c be referred as the unit cost and defined as the average cost of one year of
study for one student enrolled in that cycle. It has to be mentioned here that, this cost of
educating one student during one academic year, c = c(a), is probably to increase
itself with the increase of a, because of the new investments in equipment, buildings
and human resources (educators) necessary to offer more students higher education than
the actual academic infrastructure permits.
 But, in that Societies where the actual academic capacities are not entirely used,
the fixed expenses might not increase and c(a) might slightly decrease with a, at least
until the maximum existing capacities are reached.
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 The Society’s Budget
necessary to run a cycle, B , is:
[13] B = Sc * c = Sg * Tf g * c = Sg * c * T * (1+f) R * (1-d)-L =
= ~ Sg * c * T * (1 + R * f) * [1 + L * d]
= ~ ag * T *c * (1+ R * f) * [1 + L * d] * pe * N
 The cost per graduated student would be:
[14] B / Sg = ~ c * T * (1+ R * f)*[1 + L * d] = c * Tfg ,
much larger than c * T and fast increasing with f, d, c (and with a and ag).
Thus, the decision to increase access to a cycle of Higher Education, without other
measures, will require an increase in the Budget for running a cycle, the relative increase of
B being much important than the relative increase of the access to that cycle of HE, this
correlation generating a large effort for the public budget.
 This conclusion is to be completely understood by the politicians deciding a larger
democratic access to higher education and by the members of the Society who are paying
taxes but benefiting, too, from such a decision, not to consider here the workers abroad, not
contributing to the education budget at home.
 But, usually, Parliaments and/or Governments do not easily accept the increase of
quota of higher education in the public budget, in spite of the possibility of so generating
new jobs in education with a low specific investment (the investment for creating and
maintaining a job in HE being much smaller than in the major part of new industries).
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The deduced relationship [13] clearly explains one feature of the essence of Bologna
Declaration: no increase in the academic access is possible in the actual budgetary frame,
without a structural reform of Higher Education.
 To run all three cycles: I
(B.Sc.); II (M: Sc.) and III (PhD.) (O = I , II, III), the necessary
Budget for higher education, BHE , would be:
[15]
BHE = BI + BII + BIII = pe*N*[(Tfg*ag*c)I + (Tfg*ag*c)II + (Tfg*ag*c)III] =
= pe * N* O[ T * (1+f)R * (1-d)T-1 *ag*c ]O
~ = pe * N* cO{ T * (1+ R * f) * [1 + (T-1) d] *ag*c }O
 The component parentheses differ significantly between them by:
•
•
•
•
•
•
extensive parameters:
e1) rate of access to higher education, a;
e2) duration of study T ;
e3) eventually, by the number of cycles O, financed for one individual and by
intensive parameters:
i1) failure rate, f ,
i2) dropout rate, d , (f and d influencing the rate of access to graduation ag );
i3) unit cost per year of study, c.
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 An increase in every one of these parameters results in an increase of the
budget for Higher Education.
jiLet F be the total yearly Funding of Higher Education, where FP ,
comes from Public sources; FC comes from private sources (Companies );
FU comes from the direct revenues of the universities due to services done
by them (including taxes).
Then:
[16] F= FP + FC + FU,
In the major part of EU members, F, the Funding of higher education is
ensured mainly by public contribution, with the exception of a part of doctoral costs
and a small part of master costs, which are covered by private companies.
In all Central and East European (CEE) former communist countries,
the Public Funding, only, practically, counts.
A balanced budget of the HE means:
[17] BHE = F
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 For the needs of this model, the academic excellence, E, might be defined as the quality and
the quantity of the new personal knowledge and abilities acquired by a graduate of a cycle, by the
new knowledge and new types of products generated by one student of a cycle during his or her
graduation studies.
 Sociological and psychological investigations have shown that E is very fast increasing (some
would say quasi-exponentially) with the:
•
Quality and the volume of the basic knowledge K;
•
Intelligence and Emotional quotient Q
•
Creativity, G,
•
Motivation, M,
•
Desire to win, V
•
Habit to work, L;
 Training for research age, A (for small A), A being the time span since starting academic
education and being generated the first genuine results.
•  Supplementary investment, I, for training for excellence (investment in equipment; supervising;
organising competitions . . . )
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 When expressed as a function of the previous parameters, the Excellence becomes
[18]
E = Emref * exp (bKK + bQQ + bGG + bMM + bVV + bLL + bAA + b
II), where Emref is a reference value of academic excellence, corresponding to some
defined levels of values for the considered parameters (for example, to the minimum
requirements for enrolment) and bj are system constants to be determined.
 This function E is a very sharply increasing one with the increase of each of the
parameters determining the Excellence.
 It may be found in sociological and psychological reports that the intensity (value) of
all parameters K, . . . , I, are Maximum decreasing when going further from the top
values among the members of a society, that is with increasing the rate of access to
higher education, a, especially in democracies, where the education is free and the
selection is based upon merit. In a first approximation, that leads to a relationship of the
form:
[19] E = E MREF * exp (-a)
where EMREF is a high reference value of academic excellence, to be found
considering, for example, the top 10-4 * N segment of the population of the considered
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Society.
 Because of the negative derivative of E with respect to a, the
increasing of the democratic access, a, will induce the
decreasing of the average individual academic excellence, in
spite of the necessary increasing funding.
 Nevertheless, the Society’s cumulated academic excellence,
ET, the total quantity of new knowledge and new types of
products generated by higher education will be slightly improved,
but at a higher unit cost, the newly generated cumulated academic
excellence obtained by enlarging academic access being more
expensive, larger the increase in access be.
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WHAT IT HAS TO BE DONE to increase the access a to Higher Education, subject to
social restrictions (and referred based upon the mentioned relationships implied in the
developed model) ?
Relations [13] and [16] gives some hints how to increase a (an intensive
parameter) without increasing the quota of the budget of HE in the Society’s
budget: to reduce the values of the other extensive parameters and to reduce
the values of the intensive parameters.
 But, until very recently, the actual structural reform proposed by politicians
has been a rather, extensive one. The major recommendations done and actions
taken are mainly concerned with acting upon the extensive parameters, the
intensive factors being applied to, rather partially and rarely, only as auxiliary
ones when changing the extensive factors.
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1. Public education/Private education
2. Education/Research
 A new purpose - to study the dependence educational parameters on
the macro-economic and social indicators of Romanian universities and
the possibility of forecasting their values for the incoming years.
 An application of this work can be the identification of the best
geographical regions for best education as a new idea of a revenue, since
Romanian universities are still under-ranked, especially in the field of
economic
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