VAAL RIVER SYSTEM TARIFF:
PRESENTATIONWater
TITLE Requirement
DWS Long-term
Scenarios
Presented by:
Name Surname
Directorate
Presentation
to Rand
Water Forum
Date
Venue: Rand Water
Tendayi Makombe on behalf of Seef Rademeyer
14 October 2015
1
Integrated Vaal River System
Existing Transfer Schemes
Proposed Transfer Schemes
Mokolo Catchment
Transfers relevant to VRESS
Vaal Catchment
Crocodile Catchment
Linkages with Crocodile & Mokolo
Growth areas
Mokolo Catchment
Urban
Mining
Proposed Transfer
Crocodile West Catchment
Vaal Catchment
Treated Urban
Return Flows
Continental divide
Transfer from Vaal River
via. Rand Water System
3
Lephalale Water Balance
Mokolo Crocodile Water Augmentation Project (Phase 2)
Water Requirements and Water Availability
250
Lephalale water transfer
requirements (July 2012)
With 15 and 20%
conveyance losses
200
Volume (million m3/a)
150
100
50
Critical period
0
2014
Water available in the
Crocodile for transfer
Transfer to Lephalale
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
Water available_Alternative Scenario
Water available_Base Scenario
Water transfer requirements (20% conveyance losses)
Water Transfer requirements (15% conveyance losses)
2042
2044
• Water in Crocodile after supplying Lephalale
Lephalale Water Requirment Projection
120
100
80
60
mcm/a
40
20
0
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
-20
-40
-60
Additional Surplus available_Alternative Scenario
Additional Surplus available_Base Scenario
2044
2046
2048
2050
6
Implications of AMD
RUSTENBURG
Vaal
Barrage
Vaal
Bloemhof Dam
Katse
Mohale
Proposed
Polihali Dam
Acid Mine Drainage Management Option
•
2012: Mines voids filling (no mine water discharge)
•
2014: AMD neutralisation, discharge and dilution
•
2021: AMD desalination and reuse
7
Bloemhof Dam Storage
AMD: Benefits of desalination
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2012
Excessive Spills &
Wastage
99
%
100 %
99.5
%
2016
2020
No desalination
2024
Desalinate AMD
8
Bloemhof Dam Storage
Boxplots derived from 1000 sequences
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2012
Excess
Storage
2028
2032
Months
2036
2040
2044
2048
(Planning Year: May to April)
Desalination and reuse
2016
2020
2024
Boxplots derived from 1000 sequences
2028
2032
Months
2036
2040
2044
2048
(Planning Year: May to April)
COMPLEX ISSUES
• Dynamic area with huge growth in
water requirements and we need to
sustain water for social and economic
activities
• Complex infrastructure system
• Efficient use of scarce resource
important
• All users contribute to the effluent and
complex water quality issues
• We need to ensure there will be
enough water for this important area
9
Background to the Integrated
Vaal River studies
• Various studies were done over many
years
• It culminated in the Vaal River
Reconciliation Strategy Study
• Stakeholders participation in Steering
Committee is continuing
• Strategy is presented at various
stakeholder workshops
10
FUTURE OPTIONS TO RECONCILE
Focus of Vaal Reconciliation Strategy
Study:
• Options for augmentation limited
• Need to balance supply and demand
• Develop strategies (scenario based) to meet
growing water requirements
• Find best reconciliation solution i.t.o.
– Least cost (to end user)
– Long term vision
– Maximize future flexibility
• Involvement of stakeholders
11
Strategic Interventions
Ensuring that sufficient water is available to supply the
future requirements of the Vaal River System requires a
multi pillar strategy:
• Eradication of unlawful water use by 2015 (2014)
• Continue with the Implementation of WC/WDM
(Project 15%) – achieve target savings by 2017 (2015)
• Implement Phase 2 of LHWP by 2023 (May 2024)
(2020)
• Mine water effluent treatment and use by 2020/21
(2018)
• Tshwane Water Augmentation Project (Re-use)
• Plan yield replacement scheme in Orange
• Manage uncertainties: Vaal, Crocodile and Olifants
• Implementation of Integrated Water Quality
Management Plan
12
Rand Water Supply Area Scenarios (2015)
2300
2200
2100
Rand Water Projection
(October 2014)
2000
Water Requirements ( million m3/annum )
1900
1800
1700
Rand Water
(2003)
1600
1500
1400
1300
1200
WC/WDM &
Tshwane Reuse
Historical
Water Use
1100
1000
Dashed lines from
January 2014 SSC
900
800
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Historic water use
RW (2003 Questionnaire)
VR No WC/WDM_Jan14
Years
VR WC/WDM_Jan14
13
RW_Oct_2014
RW_Oct_2014_WDM_Reuse
Water Requirements (2015)
(Net System Water Requirements)
14
Net Water Requirements (million m3/annum)
3800
3600
•
•
High Water Requirements
Unlawful Removed
3400
3200
3000
•
•
•
•
2800
High Water Requirement Scenario
Water Conservation and Demand Management
Unlawful Removed
Re-use (Tshwane)
2600
2400
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
Dotted Lines = January 2014 Analysis
14
2050
Reconciliation Perspective
High with target WC/WDM
Desalination for urban use
•
•
•
•
Yield / Water Requirements (million m3/a)
3800
Unlawful removed
High water requirement
Unlawful removed
WC/WDM
Tshwane re-use
•
•
Re-use (Tshwane )
High water requirement
Unlawful removed
3600
3400
Short term availability due to
current reservoir volumes
LHWP Phase II Yield
(Polihali Dam)
3200
3000
2800
2600
2400
2005
Yield increases due to
desalination of mine water
System
Yield
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
First transfer from LHWP Phase II
15
2050
Reconciliation Perspectives
Water Conservation and Water Demand
Management, eradication of unlawful use,
desalination and re-use of mine water as
well as Tshwane re-use project are all
essential to maintain balance until LHWP
Phase 2 can be implemented
16
Top Management Support
– Approval of long-term AMD management option
– Exert pressure on municipalities to achieve water
saving targets
– Expedite decisions relating LWHP Phase 2
implementation
– Support the re-use initiative by Tshwane
– Approve resources for infrastructure maintenance
activities
– Promote and support development and operational
planning
Total System Storage Trajectory
Mohale Dam
included
VAAL RIVER TARIFF
CALCULATION (2015)
INFORMATION SUPPLIED TO TCTA
19
Scenario Descriptions (1/2)
• Scenario I (Low)
– RW area: High population scenario (in view of 2014/15 actual
use) with WC/WDM implemented and achieved.
– Assume moderate levels of drought restrictions to be
implemented over the medium term
– Assume 85% of deemed unlawful irrigation is removed from
2015 onwards – based on 2014 information
– Eskom tariff scenario April 2015
– All other users as determined for the 2015/16 Annual Operating
Analysis
• Scenario II (Medium)
– Same as Sc I, but …
– Assume some WC/WDM achievement
– Assume minimal levels of drought restrictions to be
implemented over the medium term
20
Scenario Descriptions (2/2)
• Scenario III (High)
– RW area: High population scenario (in view of 2014/15 actual
use) with no further WC/WDM savings implemented
– Assume unlawful irrigation is not removed and stay unchanged
as at 2014 levels
– Eskom high scenario April 2015
– All other users as determined for the 2015/16 Annual Operating
Analysis
21
Water Requirement Scenarios
22
System Balance: Tariff Scenario I
23
System Balance: Tariff Scenario II
24
System Balance: Tariff Scenario III
25
Thank you!
Any Questions?
26