Sexual Offenders: What the
Research Reveals
Franca Cortoni, Ph.D., C.Psych.
School of Criminology
University of Montreal
Association Paroling Authorities International
Audio Conference
May 28, 2008
Sexual Offenders
Understanding Recidivism
Risk Assessment
Treatment
Circles of Support & Accountability
Female Sexual Offenders
Conclusions
Understanding Recidivism
(aka - Not all male sexual
offenders are the same!!!)
Average International
Recidivism Rates – Male S.O.
Average follow-up of 5 years

13.5% sexual (N = 23,494)

25.5% any violent (N = 13,427)

35.5% any recidivism (N = 18,167)
Hanson & Morton (2003)
Sexual Recidivism by Type of Victims
Follow-up = 15 years
Adult Victims (N=1,038)
24%
Intrafamilial (N = 1,099)
vs.
Extrafamilial (N = 2,798)
13%
Girl Victims (N = 1,572)
vs.
Boy Victims (N = 706)
16%
25%
35%
Harris & Hanson (2004)
Evaluation of Risk of
Sexual Recidivism
“The prototypical sexual
recidivist is not upset or lonely;
instead he leads an unstable,
antisocial lifestyle and ruminates
on sexually deviant themes”
(p.1158; Hanson & Morton-Bourgon, 2005)
Why Risk Assessment?



Evaluation informs on the level of risk
posed by the offender & informs on when
the offender may be most at risk of
reoffending
Informs on treatment needs
Provide strategies for supervision to
promote the effective management of the
offender’s risk.
Types of Risk of Recidivism



General recidivism (i.e., non-violent and
non-sexual)
Violent recidivism (may or may not
include sexual recidivism)
Sexual recidivism
Evaluation of Risk of Sexual
Recidivism


Evaluation of risk of sexual recidivism
always take into consideration static &
dynamic risk factors
Risk factors are individual characteristics
that increase or decrease the probability
of recidivism
Static Risk Factors


Historical factors that have been
demonstrated to relate to recidivism
potential.
These are non-changeable aspects of
the offender.
Dynamic Risk Factors


Factors associated with recidivism but
that are amenable to change.
These are the issues that are addressed
in treatment.
Dynamic Risk Factors (cont.)

Stable: Enduring changeable characteristics
linked to the offending behavior.

Acute: Rapidly changing changeable
characteristics; may indicate that a reoffense
will occur within a short period of time

Some factors may be both stable and acute
Established Static Risk Factors for
Sexual and Violent Recidivism
among Sexual Offenders


Young
Single


No current romantic relationship
Total criminal history
Hanson & Morton-Bourgon, 2004
Established Risk Factors for Violent
Recidivism among Sexual Offenders






Antisocial orientation
History of rule violation
History of violent crime
Lifestyle instability
Substance abuse
Cluster B Personality Disorders
(antisocial, narcissistic, borderline)
Hanson & Morton-Bourgon, 2004
Factors Unrelated to Violent Recidivism
among Sexual Offenders

Psychosis, major mental illness

Internalizing psychological disorders

Depression; anxiety
Hanson & Morton-Bourgon, 2004
Established Risk Factors for
Sexual Recidivism
Sexual criminal history



Prior sexual offences
 Early onset of sexual crimes
 Diverse sexual crimes
Victim characteristics
 Unrelated
 Strangers
 Male
Non-contact sexual offences
Hanson & Morton-Bourgon, 2004
continued…
Sexual deviance

Any deviant sexual interest
 Children
 Paraphilias

Sexual preoccupations

Attitudes tolerant of sexual assault
Hanson & Morton-Bourgon, 2004
continued…
Lifestyle instability / general criminality
 History
of rule violation (lack of
compliance with supervision)
 Antisocial
attitudes
 Antisocial
traits

Impulsivity, hostility
Hanson & Morton-Bourgon, 2004
continued…
Relationship Issues:
 Problematic
intimate relationships
(conflict with intimate partner)
 Emotional
identification with children
Hanson & Morton-Bourgon, 2004
Factors Not Related to Sexual
Recidivism

Victim empathy

Denial/minimization of sexual offence

Lack of motivation for treatment

Internalizing psychological problems

Anxiety; depression; low self-esteem

Sexually abused as a child

Sexual intrusiveness (e.g., intercourse)
Hanson & Morton-Bourgon, 2004
Risk Assessment Tools:
Specific Examples
The STATIC-99 – Static Factors





Young Age (- 25 y.)
Never married
Non-sexual violence
in index offence
Prior non-sexual
violent convictions
Prior sexual offences





Prior sentencing
dates
Non-contact sexual
offences
Stranger victims
Unrelated victims
Male victims
Hanson & Thornton, 1999
The STABLE: Dynamic Factors
•
Intimacy Deficits
•
Significant Social Influences
•
Attitudes supportive of Sexual Assault
•
Sexual Self-regulation
•
General Self-regulation
•
Lack of Cooperation with Supervision
Hanson & Harris (2000 & ongoing)
The ACUTE: Dynamic Factors







Substance Abuse
Emotional Collapse
Collapse of Social Supports
Hostility*
Sexual Preoccupation*
Victim Access*
Rejection of Supervision*
Hanson & Harris, 2000 & ongoing
Are Acute Factors specifically useful in
predicting recidivism?
Yes – all acute factors related to recidivism,
but most powerful:
 Sexual
 Victim
Preoccupation
Access
 Hostility
 Rejection
of Supervision
Hanson, Harris, Scott, & Helmus, 2007
Treatment
Treatment
Current standards:
•
Treatment is based on behavioural strategies,
including cognitive-behavioural, social learning,
modelling, and skill building.
Goals of Treatment:
1.
2.
3.
To address in treatment the dynamic risk factors
leading to the sexually offending behavior
To understand the behavioral progression to the
offense
To develop a self-management plan
Treatment Targets
•
Cognitive issues : Schemas about themselves; others;
and the world (includes attitudes; beliefs; distortions of
the offending behavior & victims)
•
Sexual Self-Regulation (including arousal management)
•
General Self-Regulation
•
Intimacy & Relationships
•
Emotions Management
•
Social & Interpersonal Functioning
•
Understanding of behavioural progression & selfmanagement strategies
Behavioral Progression



A predictable series of events &
situations
Combined with cognitive & emotional
states
That leads to sexual offending
A Self Management Plan Should…




…establish positive goals incompatible with offending
…develop management & coping strategies for internal &
external risk factors
…ensure cognitive & emotional components are present
…ensure strategies to deal with deviant arousal are
included if necessary

…include a support network

…be concrete but generalizable.
Treatment Effectiveness
Treatment Effectiveness


In the Canadian correctional system, research
shows that treated sexual offenders (of all risk
levels) consistently demonstrate a 50% reduction
in reoffending
International research on the effectiveness of
treatment for sexual offenders also shows similar
reductions when treatment is based on current
standards.
33
International Findings - ATSA
Collaborative Database
Overall Effect of Treatment
60
50
40
Treated
Control
30
20
10
0
Sexual
Any
Reductions in both
sexual recidivism
(17% to 10%) and
general recidivism
(51% to 32%) found
when current
treatments are
evaluated with
credible designs
The Importance of Completing
Treatment
Recidivism & Treatment Attrition


ATSA Collaborative Database (Hanson et al.,
2002):
18 studies found the same results:
 offenders
who start but fail to complete
treatment have consistently higher rates of
recidivism than those who completed or
refused treatment.
Managing the risk in the
community:
Circles of Support &
Accountability
(CoSAs)
Circles of Support & Accountability
Core member
Volunteers
Professionals
CoSAs Mission Statement
To substantially reduce the risk of
future sexual victimization of
community members by assisting
and supporting released men in
their task of integrating with the
community and leading responsible,
productive, and accountable lives.
Are CoSAs Effective?
Study 1: Wilson, Pricheca, & Prinzo (2005)
Sexual Recidivism
Expected sexual
recidivism
CoSAs (N=60)
5.00% (3)
Control (N=60)
16.67% (10)
28.33% (17)
26.45% (16)
Study 2: Wilson, Cortoni & Vermani (2007)
Sexual Recidivism
Follow-up= 4.5 years
Follow-up = 3 years
CoSAs (N=47)
Control (N=47)
2.13% (n=1)
12.77% (n=6)
Female Sexual Offenders
Female Sexual Offenders



Tremendous advances in the knowledge of risk
assessment for adult male sexual offenders.
In contrast, little is known about risk
assessment & treatment of female sexual
offenders.
Not only are the risk factors unknown, but there
has been little research on the recidivism base
rates for female sexual offenders.
Proportion of Sexual Offenders who
are Women
Two general sources of information from 5 countries:
1) Official police or Court reports of offender gender
2) Victimization surveys


Overall, results showed that women appear to be
responsible for approximately 4% to 5% of all sexual
offences
These indicate a ratio of approximately 20 male to 1
female sexual offenders based on both official reports
and victimization surveys
Cortoni & Hanson (2005)
Average International Recidivism
Rates of Female Sexual Offenders



The sexual recidivism rate of 1.0% after 5
years (3/306)
The violent recidivism rate (including sexual)
of 6.3% (12/191)
The general recidivism rate (including sexual
& violent) of 20.2% (68/337)
Cortoni & Hanson (2005)
Canadian Recidivism Study
61 women convicted of sexual offenses

7.56 years follow-up (.08 - 22.14 y.)

32.8% re-offended (N=20)

7 / 20 committed a violent offense

2 / 7 committed a new sexual offense
Williams & Nicholaichuk (2001)
Tentative Risk Factors of Female
Sexual Offenders **



Prior sexual offences
Acted alone (no male accomplice )
Unrelated victim
** Difficult to provide clear empirical evidence
** Must pay attention to general risk factors
among female offenders in addition to those
for sexual recidivism since no other method
of risk assessment
Conclusions:
Putting it all Together!
Risk Assessment: Points to Remember




Risk is not a static state. It fluctuates with
changes in dynamic risk factors.
Actuarial risk level provides the long term
potential of recidivism.
Dynamic risk factors provide indications of
problematic areas that can be addressed to
manage the risk.
Acute risk factors provide indications about
when sexual recidivism may occur.
Start with the Right Information:

Gather all relevant facts – look for:






static risk
dynamic risk
targeting of dynamic risk factors in treatment
& outcome re: dynamic risk factors, skills
indicators of manageability of risk
community support
indicators of deterioration
Reviewing Risk Information:

Consider long-term (static) risk

Consider dynamic risk factors in individual case

Consider risk for non-sexual recidivism separately

Apply weight to actuarial and structured
empirically based assessments - not to
unstructured clinical judgment of risk (i.e., based
on traditional models of psychopathology)
Reviewing Treatment Results:

Consider treatment outcome:



successful completion versus drop-out
consider the offender’s understanding of
his/her risk & of his self-management plan
consider the offender’s ability to
implement his plan (is his release plan
congruent with his self-management
plan?)
Recommendations - Management

Consider presence & extent of dynamic risk factors in
individual cases

Consider the offender’s willingness (look for behavioural
indicators) to work cooperatively to manage his/her risk

Consider past history with supervision – evidence of
adherence to conditions?


Apply greater weight to presence & extent of acute risk
factors (rather than static risk potential) if purpose is
post-suspension review.
In this context, pay particular attention to victim access;
hostility; rejection of supervision; & sexual preoccupation.
Thank you!
* For full description of the functioning of COSAs, see:
Circles of Support & Accountability: An Evaluation of the Pilot Project
in South-Central Ontario. Wilson, R.J., Picheca, J., & Prinzo (2005).
Research Report R-168. Correctional Service Canada.
Available at: www.csc-scc.gc.ca (on main page left menu, click on
Research; select Research Reports; scroll to R-168).