PREMIER MINISTRE
International Social Security Association
World Social Security Forum
www.strategie.gouv.fr
(Moscow, Tuesday 11 September 2007)
Demographic changes
–
Impact on the
world of work
Julien Damon
Head of the Departement of Social Affairs
Associate Professor - Sciences-Po (Paris)
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SUMMARY
A world with a population…
… still growing, notably in the less developped countries ;
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… ageing everywhere, especially in the developped countries,;
… in the course of feminization and urbanization.
Consequently for the world of work :
… more employment injuries and occupational diseases to come ;
… financial and political trade-offs between social risks ;
… new types of global inequality.
Illustration : the Care Drain
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The world of work will be a world of
Developing Countries
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World Population (in Billions): 1950-2050
Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision.
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World Population Clock
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2005
More
Developed
Countries
Natural
Increase per World
Less
Developed
Countries
Year
80,794,218
1,234,907
79,559,311
Day
221,354
3,383
217,971
154
2
151
Minute
Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.
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An ageing world
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The old Europe…
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… and the ageing old Europe
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Trends in Urbanization, by Region
85
82
76
Urban Population
74
Percent
61
55
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54
53
47
42
37
37
29
17
15
World
Africa
Asia
1950
2000
Latin America
and the
Caribbean
More
Developed
Regions
2030
Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision (medium scenario), 2004.
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Urbanization : the 2007 tipping point
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More and more women
in the labour force
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But still a very important
glass ceiling…
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The global mamy boom
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A consequence of ageing :
which equipments and which benefits to favour ?
The case of France
35
28,4
32,3
5,4
5,2
26,6
24,8
22,8
25
20
19,1
18,1 18,3 17,2 18,2
17,5
16,2 16,3 16,8
20,1 20,5 20,7
15
9,5
10
9
8,8
8,7
8,3
7,8
6,9
6,9
6,7
6,2
6,2
6,3
6
5,8
5,6
5,4
5,4
5,3
5,2
5
0
19
50
19
55
19
60
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
20
30
20
35
20
40
20
45
20
50
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30
29,9
32
31,1 31,6
Population aged from 0 to 4
Population more than 60 years old
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision, 2004.
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Association Between Fertility
and Female Labor Force Participation
Worldwide, female labor force participation tends to be higher in countries with lower fertility rates
Female Labor Force
Participation Rate 2004
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100
Djibouti
80
Philippines
60
Turkey
40
20
0
0
1
2
Total Fertility Rate 2000-2004
3
4
5
6
7
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005; International
Labor Organization, Yearbook of Labor Statistics 2006.
8
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Association Between Fertility
and Female Labor Force Participation
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But in the OECD countries fertility rates tend to
be higher in countries with higher female labor force participation
Source: OECD
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Employment Injury
and Occupational Diseases
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2005 Global Estimates
ILO World Day for - Safety and Health at Work 2007
About 2.2 million people die every year from occupational
accidents and disease
• 270 million workers suffer non fatal injuries
• 160 million workers suffer short
or long-term illnesses from work-related causes
Total cost = 4% of the world’s gross domestic product
Yet most accidents are preventable
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Employment Injury and
Occupational Diseases in France
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The new repartition of diseases
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After the brain drain,
the coming care drain
Labour force projection for developed countries with and without migration
Projected population aged 15-64 (medium variant)
With
migration
(Millions)
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900
800
700
600
2000
100
million
Without
migration
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
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And not to be forgotten…
Population Living on Less Than US$2 per Day
2002
78
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Percent
75
50
41
23
World
South Asia
Sub-Saharan
Africa
East Asia
and the
Pacific
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2006.
20
Latin America Middle East
and the
and North
Caribbean
Africa
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Thank you for
your attention