DEMOGRAPHICS DATA TABLE
LESSON 1
Lesson 1: Step 1
Country
Birthrate
Death
Rate
Population
Growth
2005
Population
Growth
2050
Relative place
in Transition
Social
Factors 1
Social
Factors 2
USA
China
Egypt
India
Italy
Mexico
Nigeria
Lesson 1: Step 2
Country
Sketch Shape of Pyramid: Prediction
USA
China
Egypt
India
Italy
Mexico
Nigeria
Answer Lesson 1 Questions on Analysis page
Shape of Pyramid: Simulation
Social
Factors 3
LESSON 2
Lesson 2: Step 1
Nigeria
Birth rate
Death rate
Population growth
Default
Prediction
+ 5 years
+15 years
-5 years
Sketch of Nigeria using USA birth and death rates:
Lesson 2: Step 2
Italy
Birth rate
Death rate
Population growth
Prediction
+ 5 years
+15 years
-5 years
Simulated 2
Simulated 3
Answer Lesson 2 Questions on Analysis Page
LESSON 3
Lesson 3: Step 1
Egypt
Birth rate
Death rate
Prediction
Population Growth
Simulated 1
0%
0%
Lesson 3: Step 2
Country
Pyramid
Prediction
Pyramid
Simulation
Predicted
Birthrate
Predicted
Death
Rate
USA
Mexico
Answer Lesson 3 Questions on Analysis Page
Predicted
Population
Growth
Simulated
Birthrate
Simulated
Death Rate
Simulated
Population
Growth
DEMOGRAPHICS ANALYSIS QUESTIONS
LESSON 1 Demographic Transition
Step 1
1. How do you suppose living conditions differ between the country furthest along in the demographic
transition, compared to the country earliest in the transition?
2. How would living conditions in these two countries affect both birth and death rates?
3. Think of three social factors that contribute to lower birth rates in the countries farther along.
4. Describe how these social conditions might be encouraged to emerge in less developed countries?
5. In general, how do the concepts of "early, middle, and late demographic transition" relate to the concepts
of "first, second, and third world countries"?
Step 2
6. How does the shape of the population pyramid differ from most developed to least developed country?
7. Those in the population who are in the "prime of life" (roughly aged 20-60, depending on local
conditions), support the populations younger and older than themselves. How might this impact the
quality of life in countries with the various shapes of demographic pyramids?
8. Countries that are now "late" in the demographic transition, generally began it earlier than other
countries, or, as with China, pursued the transition more aggressively. The USA is fairly late in the
transition. What do you suppose its demographic pattern was like 100 years ago?
9. What about China 100 years ago?
For Your Consideration
10. Based on what you know of these and other countries, what factors might prompt women to have fewer
children, later in life?
LESSON 2 Population Momentum
Step 1
1. Describe how and why, the pyramid shape changed?
2. How does an increase or decrease in the average childbearing age group change the population?
3. Why do "first world" countries tend to have older childbearing women than "third world" countries?
Step 2
4. Did the pattern of population change match your prediction? If not, why not?
5. Compare the final population pyramid for Italy to the one you sketched of Nigeria. How do they
compare, and why are they similar or different?
6. How are Italy's numbers different from Nigeria's? What do you think accounts for the difference?
7. Many Western European countries are giving monetary incentives to employees who have multiple
children. Why would they do this?
8. How would a baby boom change Italy's demographics?
For Your Consideration
9. Based on what you have learned in this section, what causes the time lag for these populations to reach
stability?
LESSON 3 Social Impacts
Step 1
1. How close was your prediction to the actual model parameters that gave you a 0% growth rate?
2. What factors did you use to make your prediction?
3. What would Egypt have to do in order to reach a zero growth rate?
4. What kinds of challenges might the Egyptian government face in trying to implement these measures?
5. How does Egypt's replacement level that would bring it to zero growth compare to that of the United
States and to that of Mexico?
6. What might account for the similarities/differences among the three?
Step 2
7. What are the most obvious differences between these two countries?
8. What might account for these differences?
9. In this lab, the USA and Mexico are the only countries listed that are physically adjacent. They
experience direct and fairly constant one-way migration, a factor not taken into account by this
simulation. Imagine that a significant percentage of the Mexican population between the ages of 15 and
25 is migrating permanently to the USA. How would this change the shape of the pyramid?
10. What would Mexico have to do in order to maintain a zero population growth?
11. Faced with mounting population pressure and the resultant drain on natural resources, many other
growing populations feel this urge to migrate, and other dwindling nations already import labor. Where
are the major sources and destinations of this population growth differential in the world today?
12. What is the expected result of a nation whose population is outstripping its resources and ability to feed
its people, yet is not allowed to migrate peaceably?
For Your Consideration
13. In "third world" countries, what could be done to slow population growth?
14. How might that be enforced?
15. What are the more effective ways of maintaining a near zero population growth?
16. Due to population momentum, any policy change is slow to effect population growth rates. With this in
mind, how do you imagine population pressures will shape relationships between countries in the
21st century?
17. How might the culture of an aging population differ from that of a culture more highly populated by
children?
18. From what you have previously read in the text, what kinds of issues do both cultures have in common,
and what might be done to attend to these issues?