WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE
September 28, 2015
WEEKLY QUOTE
A BIT MORE OPTIMISM AS SEPTEMBER ENDS
“Sometimes life is
going to hit you in
the head with a
brick. Don’t lose
faith.”
- Steve Jobs
DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS FOR AUGUST HOME SALES
WEEKLY TIP
How many of us
think about saving
first, spending
second? Most
households save or
invest whatever is
left after monthly
expenses. Would our
savings (and wealth)
grow faster if we saw
things the other way
around?
WEEKLY RIDDLE
Take a letter out of
it, and it stays put
and the same;
remove all the
letters from it and it
still stays put and
stays the same.
What is it?
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index advanced slightly in the past couple of weeks,
rising to a final September mark of 87.2 from its initial reading of 85.7. Regardless, this was the index’s
poorest final monthly reading since October 2014. It did surpass the expectations of analysts polled by
Bloomberg, who expected a final number of 86.5.1
New home buying increased 5.7% during the month of August, and the sales pace was the strongest
measured by the Census Bureau since February 2008. This put new home sales up 21.6% year-over-year.
On the other hand, National Association of Realtors data showed resales slumping 4.8% last month.2
DURABLE GOODS ORDERS RETREAT 2.0%
The August reduction matched the consensus forecast at Briefing.com. Beneath the headline number,
core durable goods orders (excluding the transportation category) were flat in August.3
Q2 GDP REVISED UP TO 3.9%
This is 0.2% better than the previous estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Household
consumption grew at a 3.6% annual pace in Q2 – double what it was in Q1. Residential construction grew
at a 9.3% pace in the quarter, business investment at a 5.2% rate.1
A DOWN WEEK FOR EQUITIES
Last week saw the major U.S. indices pull back. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average settled at
16314.67, the S&P 500 at 1,931.34 and the Nasdaq Composite at 4,686.50. On the week, the Dow lost
0.43%, the S&P 1.36%, and the Nasdaq 2.92%.4
THIS WEEK: August consumer spending figures arrive Monday along with NAR’s latest pending home
sales index. Tuesday, the July Case-Shiller home price index and the Conference Board’s September
consumer confidence index appear, along with earnings from Barracuda Networks, Costco, and Diamond
Foods. Wednesday brings ADP’s September job-change report and quarterly results from Paychex; also,
Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen speaks at a banking conference in St. Louis. On Thursday, Wall Street
will watch September’s ISM factory PMI, the September Challenger job-cut report and the latest initial
jobless claims figures. The Labor Department issues its September employment report Friday.
Performance Data
Last week’s riddle:
Brittany carried a load
of wood in a
wheelbarrow, yet the
wood was neither
straight nor crooked.
How could this be?
Last week’s answer:
She was carrying a
load of sawdust.
9/25/2015
DJIA
NASDAQ
Russell 2000
S&P 500
Barclays US Agg Bond
MSCI EAFE
MSCI EM PR USD
1 Week
YTD
4 Week
1 Year
3 Year
5 Year
(0.43)
(6.78)
4.33
(1.36)
9.28
11.27
(2.92)
(1.05)
3.99
4.92
14.55
14.50
(3.47)
(5.95)
1.83
2.46
11.68
12.35
(1.35)
(4.77)
3.59
0.28
12.59
13.32
(0.24)
0.77
0.13
2.49
1.62
3.11
(3.09)
(4.49)
(3.01)
(8.78)
5.01
4.14
(4.91)
(17.48)
0.08
(23.06)
(7.65)
(5.61)
Sources: Morningstar. Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested in directly.
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Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC.
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Citations.
1 - bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-25/economy-in-u-s-picked-up-on-consumer-spending-construction [9/25/15]
2 - housingwire.com/articles/35142-new-home-sales-climb-57-in-august [9/24/15]
3 - briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2015/09/21-25 [9/25/15]
4 - markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/usmarkets/usmarkets.asp [9/25/15]
5 - markets.wsj.com/us [9/25/15]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F25%2F14&x=0&y=0 [9/25/15]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F25%2F14&x=0&y=0 [9/25/15]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F25%2F14&x=0&y=0 [9/25/15]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F24%2F10&x=0&y=0 [9/25/15]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F24%2F10&x=0&y=0 [9/25/15]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F24%2F10&x=0&y=0 [9/25/15]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F26%2F05&x=0&y=0 [9/25/15]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F26%2F05&x=0&y=0 [9/25/15]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F26%2F05&x=0&y=0 [9/25/15]
7 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [9/25/15]
8 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [9/25/15]