Climate Change:
Transportation’s Role in a National
Initiative
Marilyn A. Brown, Professor, School of Public Policy
Georgia Institute of Technology
Transportation Research Board Conference
Emerging Issues in Statewide and Metropolitan Planning
September 5, 2008
Strategic Energy Institute
Atlanta
Energy is the defining challenge
of our time
• The major driver for
− Climate change
− National security
− Economic competitiveness
− Quality of life
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Economic development has traditionally gone handin-hand with energy consumption
Strategic Energy Institute
Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the Energy Information Administration
CO2 Emissions Per Capita (tCO2)
National carbon footprints illustrate
alternative development pathways
U.S. Carbon Footprint
in 2005 = 20.1 tCO2
= 5.5 tC
GDP Per Capita (PPP)
Strategic Energy Institute
Sources: Steve Koonin, BP (2007): IEA, 2007, Key World Energy Statistics.
U.S. carbon footprints and energy
productivity are being outperformed
Sources: Council on Competitiveness, 2007; IEA, 2007, Key World Energy Statistics.
Strategic Energy Institute
Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions and
Energy are Closely Linked
U.S. GHG Emissions
88% are energy related
U.S. CO2 Emissions
by Energy Sector
(2005)
Other GHGs (2%)
Nitrous Oxide (6%)
Electricity
(39%)
Industry (28%)
Methane (8%)
Transportation
(33%)
Carbon
Dioxide (84%)
Buildings (39%)
Source: EPA. 2007. Inventory of U.S. GHG
Emissions and Sinks: 1990-1995, 2007.
Source: EIA. 2007. Annual Energy
Outlook 2007, Table A18.
Transportation CO2e = 28% Strategic Energy Institute
C-04 07-23-02
Intergovernmental Panel of Climate
Change: Findings on Causes
• Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures
since the mid-20th century is “very likely” due to the observed
increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.
• The global increases in carbon dioxide concentration are due
primarily to fossil fuel use and land-use change, while those of
methane and nitrous oxide are primarily due to agriculture.
Source: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Bases, Summary for
Policymakers by IPCC.
Strategic Energy Institute
CO2 Concentrations & Temperature Change
Note that total temperature change across
Strategic
several ice ages was only about 12oC or about
22oF.
Energy Institute
Intergovernmental Panel of Climate
Change: Findings on Consequences
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
7)
8)
Global warming
Rise in sea levels (0.3 to 0.6m by 2100)…. at a minimum
Tropical cyclones will become more intense
Meridional overturning of Atlantic ocean will decrease
Ocean pH will decrease by 0.14 to 0.35 (already down 0.1)
Snow cover will decrease, permafrost melt, sea ice melt
Extreme events will become more frequent
Rainfall will increase in the high latitudes, decrease in the subtropics
Strategic Energy Institute
Global warming, sea level rise & greater
disruptions are forecast (w/ BAU)
Changes in Tavg from 1600 to 2100
Last time T was 2ºC above 1900 level was 130,000 years ago, and
sea level was 4-6 m higher. Last time it was 3ºC above 1900 level
was ~25 million years ago, and sea level was 20-30 m higher.
Strategic Energy Institute
Billions of metric tons of Carbon per year
Long-Term Goals Require Near-Term
Actions
Relevant
Planning
Window
Relevant
Planning
Window
Emission Trajectories
750ppm
650ppm
550ppm
450ppm
350ppm
Concentration Trajectories
750ppm
650ppm
550ppm
450ppm
350ppm
Emission and concentration trajectories based on current funding profile for
technology investments
Potential carbon reductions based on proposed technology investments
Action period to influence longer-term outcomes
Source: R. Marlay 2007 (DOE)
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And what if hurricanes continue to intensify with global warming?
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Glaciers are retreating
Muir Glacier, Alaska, 1941-2004
August 1941
August 2004
NSIDC/WDC for Glaciology, Boulder, compiler. 2002, updated 2006. Online glacier
photograph database. Boulder, CO: National Snow and Ice Data Center.
Strategic Energy Institute
Sea ice is shrinking
Extent of Arctic summer ice in
1979 (top satellite image) and in
2003 (lower satellite image).
The North Polar ice cap is sea
ice -- it’s floating and so does
not change sea level when it
melts. But the reduced
reflectivity when the ice is
replaced by water amplifies the
warming effect of greenhouse
gases.
Greenland (at the right) is
covered with a thick sheet of
land ice. If this melts, sea level
rises.
Strategic Energy Institute
NASA photograph
Confronting this global disruption…
There are only three options:
• Adaptation, meaning measures to reduce the adverse
impacts on human well-being resulting from the
changes in climate that do occur.
…« manage the unavoidable
• Mitigation, meaning measures to reduce the pace &
magnitude of the changes in global climate being
caused by human activities.
…« avoid the unmanageable »
• Suffering, the adverse impacts.
Strategic Energy Institute
Mitigation: NCSL’s Assessment of Climate
Change Costs
• Developed a series of report on State Economic and
Environmental Costs of Climate Change
• Summarized the climatic changes affecting 8 states.
• NCSL = National Conference of State Legislatures
Strategic Energy Institute
Managing Sea Level Rise
NJ: It could cost $790 million to
protect the residents of Long
Beach Island from a 1 – 3 foot
increase in sea level.
The rails, bridges and tunnels
connecting NJ with NYC would
be threatened, because they
operate at or below sea level.
Sea level rise also threatens
port operations.
Strategic Energy Institute
Managing Great Lakes Water Level Decline
MI: If Great Lakes
water levels decrease
as expected, system
connectivity along the
Great Lakes-St.
Lawrence route could
decline by 25%.
The result would be an
annual economic loss
of $4 billion in foreign
trade in/out of
Michigan.
Strategic Energy Institute
Mitigation: Shrinking the Carbon
Footprint of Metropolitan Areas
Marilyn Brown, Georgia Tech
Frank Southworth, ORNL & GT
Andrea Sarzynski, Brookings
Strategic Energy Institute
New Carbon Footprint Estimates
This study fills an important data gap by
producing comparable carbon footprints for the
100 largest U.S. metro areas
• Partial carbon footprints were estimated for transportation and
residential energy use
• Individual or per capita carbon footprints are the focus
• This way we can compare metro area footprints across metro
areas of varying size
• This gets at the relative efficiency of energy use in one metro
area compared to other metro areas and the national average
Strategic Energy Institute
Transportation methodology
• Passenger and freight vehicles miles traveled (VMT) was
estimated at the metro-level using HPMS data
• Fuel consumption was estimated by multiplying VMT by type
of vehicle by gallon per mile fuel consumption rates
• Fuel consumption was then converted to Btu on the basis of
fuel types and carbon emissions computed on a Btu – fuel basis
Strategic Energy Institute
Residential methodology
• Residential electricity sales data was obtained from Platts
Analytics and analyzed using zip code population data mapped to
utility service territories
• Residential fuels data was obtained from EIA and the Residential
Energy Consumption Survey
• All energy consumption data was aggregated to the metro-level
and converted to equivalent carbon emissions
Strategic Energy Institute
Which carbon emissions belong to a metro area?
Consumption vs production dichotomy
Source: Chris Nelson
Source: Louis Lebel, et al (2008)
Strategic Energy Institute
Analysis reveals five major findings
1 Large metro areas offer greater energy and carbon efficiency
than the nation as a whole
2 Carbon emissions increased slower in metropolitan America
than the rest of the country between 2000 and 2005
3 Per capita emissions vary substantially by metro area
4 Development patterns and rail transit play an important role
in determining carbon emissions
5 Fuel mix and electricity prices are also important
determinants of emissions
Strategic Energy Institute
Large metro areas offer greater energy and carbon
efficiency than the nation as a whole
Percentage of national activity in 100 largest metro areas, 2005
National total
GDP: 76%
Population: 65%
Carbon emissions: 56%
Land area: 12%
Strategic Energy Institute
Per capita emissions vary substantially by metro
area
Largest per
capita carbon
footprints,
2005
Lexington, KY
Indianapolis, IN
Cincinnati, OH
Toledo, OH
Louisville, KY
Nashville, TN
St. Louis, MO
Oklahoma City, OK
Harrisburg, PA
Knoxville, TN
Tons of
carbon
per capita
3.455
3.364
3.281
3.240
3.233
3.222
3.217
3.204
3.190
3.134
Tons of
carbon
per
capita
Smallest per
capita carbon
footprints,
2005
Honolulu, HI
Los Angeles, CA
Portland, OR
New York, NY
Boise City, ID
Seattle, WA
San Jose, CA
San Francisco, CA
El Paso, TX
San Diego, CA
1.356
1.413
1.446
1.495
1.507
1.556
1.573
1.585
1.613
1.630
Strategic Energy Institute
The Mississippi River roughly divides the country
into high and low emitting metros
Strategic Energy Institute
Development patterns and rail transit play an
important role in determining carbon emissions
• Density and concentration of development tend to be
higher in the lowest-emitting metro areas
• Many metro areas with small per capita carbon footprints
also have sizeable rail transit ridership
– There are exceptions: Washington, Baltimore, and
Atlanta have high rail transit ridership but also have
larger than average carbon footprints
Strategic Energy Institute
Carbon emissions per capita (metric tons), 2005
Denser metro areas tend to have lower per capita
carbon footprints
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
L.A.
1.5
N.Y.C.
1.0
0.5
0.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Persons per developable acre, 2005 Strategic Energy Institute
High levels of freight transport characterize metros
with large transportation footprints
Strategic Energy Institute
Fuel mix and electricity prices are also important
determinants of emissions
• The fuel mix used to generate electricity matters in
residential footprints
• Electricity pricing appears to influence the electricity
component of the residential footprints
• Areas with lower residential building carbon footprints
tend to be located in mild climates with low heating and
cooling requirements
Strategic Energy Institute
Regression analysis can explain a majority of the
variation across the metros (N=97)
Dependent Variable: Metric tons of carbon emitted per capita
from highway transportation and residential energy
Strategic Energy Institute
Washington should address several economy-wide
flaws to shrink the nation’s carbon footprint
Economy-wide flaws
Recommended federal response
Carbon based energy is
underpriced
Price carbon to account for the
external costs of fossil fuel
combustion
Increase energy RD&D funding to
catalyze innovation and market
uptake
Establish a national renewable
electricity standard
Federal energy RD&D is
underfunded
National energy standards are
lacking
State utility pricing policies and
regulation thwart energy
efficiency improvements
Help states reform electricity
regulations to incentivize efficiency
Strategic Energy Institute
Economy-wide flaw: Lack of data at spatial
resolutions needed to make informed decisions
Recommended response: Collect and
disseminate needed data, set performance
goals, and tie funding streams to outcomes
Strategic Energy Institute
Market flaw: Transportation decision making is biased
toward highways and is geographically fragmented
Recommended response:
• Adopt a position of “modal neutrality” to make transit and
compact development options more feasible
• Engage in regional freight planning to introduce more energy
efficient freight operations
Manchester, England
Source: F. Southworth (2007)
San Diego, CA light rail station
http://transitorienteddevelopment.dot.ca.gov
ARLINGTON, VA TOD CORRIDOR
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/stationmage:ArlingtonTODimage3.jpg
Strategic Energy Institute
Market flaw: Misplaced incentives to upgrade existing
buildings – the “landlord-tenant problem”
Recommended response:
• Require energy cost disclosure in resale
documentation
• Create opportunities for “on-bill” utility
financing of energy-efficient retrofitting
• Consider developing “green leases”
Strategic Energy Institute
Three federal legislative initiatives could promote
these policy recommendations
• Transportation reauthorization bill
• Federal climate legislation
• Federal tax bill
Many of these recommendations are in the energy
platforms of Senators McCain and Obama.
Strategic Energy Institute
The Blue and Red Energy Platforms
Show Promise But are Incomplete
Senator Obama’s Platform
Energy Issue
Implement a cap and trade
system to reduce GHG by
80% from today’s levels by
2050, auction all pollution
credits and use revenues to
invest in a clean energy
future.
Greenhouse Gas (GHG)
Cap and Trade System
Senator McCain’s
Platform
Return GHG emissions to
2005 levels by 2012,
implement a GHG cap and
trade system with
mandatory reductions of
GHG emissions to 66%
below 2005 levels by 2050.
• Senator McCain: “The Lexington Project: An All of the Above Energy Solution”
• Senator Obama: “New Energy for America”
Strategic Energy Institute
Check out Georgia Tech’s “Energy Buzz”:
http://www.gatech.edu/energybuzz/
Senator Obama’s Platform
Energy Issue
Increase fuel economy
standards 4% per year,
provide $4 billion in tax
credits to allow automakers
to retool their plants, put 1
million plug-in electric
vehicles on the road by
2015.
Vehicle Fuel Economy
Standards
Require at least 60 billion
gallons of advanced
biofuels by 2030; mandate
all new vehicles are flex fuel
by 2012; establish a
national low carbon fuel
standard to reduce the
carbon of fuels by 10%
within 10 years.
Ethanol
Senator McCain’s
Platform
Enforce the existing CAFE
standards, offer $300 million
prize for improved batteries
for hybrid and electric cars.
Eliminate mandates,
subsidies, tariffs and price
supports that focus
exclusively on corn-based
ethanol.
Strategic Energy Institute