CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background In order to facing business competition nowadays, many companies consider a strategic activity to maximize their profit. There are many factors that can affect to the company’s profitability, it can be external factors and internal factors, one of the internal factor is production activity. The production activity of the company definitely influenced by the availability of raw materials. The company must make sure that the amount of raw material is enough for the company to do the production, then the production activity of the company can run properly. By knowing the optimum amount of raw material it needs the communication between the operational department and production department. As we know, Every company will be striving to enhance their productivity and make all types of costs efficient in order to win superiority. One of the way is forecast the consumer demand. This is important because effective consumer demand forecasting would affect a company’s profitability. Implementing a consumer demand forecasting can avoid the stock-out and stock-over of the raw material (Stevenson, 2009: 72). The company also has to think about the inventory planning system, because it is the most important factors in meeting customer needs, provide a good customer service, and staffing decisions (Evans and Collier, 2007: 439), if the level of inventory capacity can’t match to the customer needs, this situation can lead to the switching cost, where the customers try to find another competitor's product, it can result to the company’s profit declines or it may not even make any profit at all. By implementing an inventory model, the company can minimize the total cost and gain a higher profit (Jay Heizer and Barry Render, 2011: 507). PT. Indo Pangan Lestari is a company which produce Jelly Stick. Customer of PT. Indo Pangan Lestari for the local market has already covered almost the entire area of Indonesia except east area of Indonesia. Based on 1 2 the data collected that the problem in PT. Indo Pangan Lestari until right now is they never know the fixed quantity that the company must do the reorder of raw material each month because they never forecast the demand in the next period. It makes the quantity of the raw material out of stock, sometimes overstock, that situation leads the increasing of inventory costs of the company. Based on that condition, the author is interesting to form an analysis the demand and the optimum inventory of the raw material using EOQ (Economic Order Quantity) method and Trend Projection analysis for forecasting. Based on the background above, the author is interested in giving a title “Analysis The Inventory of the Raw Material in PT. Indo Pangan Lestari“. 1.2 Scope of Limitation The scope of the product in this research in PT. Indo Pangan Lestari which is located in Tangerang is jelly stick. The author also wants to know the demand of jelly product last year in order to forecast the demand in the next period, also the optimum amount of the raw material available using the economic order quantity model. So, PT. Indo Pangan Lestari can minimize the costs and gain a higher profit. Scope of this research only in the internal of the company. 1.3 Problem Formulation Based on the background above that the author wants to form an analysis the inventory of the raw material in PT. Indo Pangan Lestari, the author formulate the problem formulation as below: 1. How to forecast the demand in the next period using a time series analysis model (Trend Projection Method)? 2. How to set the optimum stock of raw materials to fulfill the customer demand? 3. How much the re-order point and safety stock that PT. Indo Pangan Lestari must consider to avoid the stock-out? 3 4. What is the total cost of inventory before and after EOQ? (Economic Order Quantity) 1.4 Objectives of the Research The objective of the research is to answer the problem in problem formulation. 1. To know the demand of the product in the next period. 2. To know the optimum stock of raw materials to fulfill the consumer demand. 3. To know the re-order point and safety stock to avoid the stock-out that can make a switching cost. 4. To know the total cost of inventory before and after EOQ (Economic Order Quantity). 1.5 Benefit of the Research 1.5.1 Benefit for PT. Indo Pangan Lestari - PT. Indo Pangan Lestari know how much they must stock their products and they know the amount of their safety stock and re-order point that can fulfill the customer demand. - PT. Indo Pangan Lestari can minimize their costs. 1.5.2 Benefit for The Author - To enrich the study of the operational management, in particular the associated with operational management especially forecasting, economic order quantity, safety stock, and inventory costs. 1.5.3 Benefit for Others - This research can be an information for anyone who read it as well. - This research will enrich knowledge in the scope of the operations management field. - This research can be a reference material for further research. 4 1.6 State of The Art Table 1.1 State of The Art Journal Description Author Research Result The current forecasting model in place atCompany XYZs has brought problems due Analysis of toineffective forecasting that resulted in an product stock outs and loss of sales. In order Economic to helpthem reduce their stock outs, a Order forecasting model was provided along with Quantity and Reorder Point Inventory Control Jose L. Gonzalez And Daniel González an economic order quantity and reorder point. Finally, the economic order quantity and the reorder point, optimizedthe order quantity for each product when anorder is placed, reducingthe companies Model product stock outissue and inventory cost. In for implementing the recommended forecasting Company model along with the Economic Order XYZ. Quantity, it would help them save approximately 61% of their total cost which adds up to about $8,300 in saving per quarter. Source: Author, 2013 5 Table 1.2 State of The Art (Continue) By implement forecast of the demand, we can make better buying, allocation, and replenishment decisions. It will The reduce the cost of over-stocks Fundamental on Demand Abdul Talib Bon, Forecasting in Chong Yi Leng Inventory and minimize the frequency of out-of-stocks. Understanding consumer expectations at given times and under different Management. market conditions delivers tangible benefits to both on the demand side and supply side of business. Grenda Bakery Lianli can reduce the inventory cost by Inventory using EOQ (Economic Order Control of Raw Quantity) method. By Materials at Eyverson Ruauw implementing EOQ method, in Grenda Bakery 2009 Grenda Bakery Lianli Lianli. can reduce their inventory cost from Rp. 1.335.726,304 to Rp. 653.057,8 and in 2010 from Rp. 1.489.153,04 to Rp. 738.276,2. Source: Author, 2013 6 Table 1.3 State of The Art (Continue) By providing and recommending the inventory control model, the results have shown improvements in Demand Forecasting for Aju Mathew, Economic Prof.E.M.Somasekaran Order Quantity Nair, Asst Prof. Jenson in Inventory Joseph E Management. forecasting as well as in cost reduction. If the company follows through and implements the recommended inventory model, they would be able to reduce the total cost by approximately 20% which is a cost reduction of for top selling product. Optimal purchase frequency at Analysis the Inventory Control of Raw Materials at PT. NT Niston Ring Edi Suswardji, SE., MM, Eman S, SE., MM., Ria Ratnaningsih, SE. PT.NT Niston Ring Indonesia, Karawang is 5 times. Ordering cost: Rp. 11.875.200,- ; Inventory cost: Rp. 15.175.989,43 (after using Indonesia, EOQ method). Reorder point: Karawang. 25.807,39 KG ; Lead time: 4 months. Source: Author, 2013