Evaluation of 2014 Early
Voting in Three Hispanic
Counties
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Cameron
El Paso
2010
2014
Hidalgo
“Texas Voter ID
Law – So is it
Suppressing
Voters?”
- November 3,
2014
“That kind of discrepancy among
counties that are demographically
and politically similar suggests that
something other than voter ID
may be discouraging participation
in Texas’s elections.”
“Texas Voter ID
Law – So is it
Suppressing
Voters?”
- November 3,
2014
“A closer look at the numbers
does indeed suggest another
explanation. In counties where
races are competitive, more voters
are bothering to vote.”
“In the Rio Grande Valley. Mr.
Abbott, somewhat unusually for a
Republican candidate, has actively
sought votes from this heavily
Hispanic area, which seems to have
boosted attendance at the polls.”
“Tarrant County, for example, has a
couple of highly competitive
legislative races, including the
contest to replace Ms Davis in the
Texas Senate. Sure enough 21.26%
voted early this year, compared
with 18.28% in 2010.”
July 2012 –
“Measuring the
Effects of Voter
Registration
Laws”
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/15/measuring-the-effects-of-voter-identification-laws/?_r=0
Estimated the Effects of Voter
Registration Laws 2008 to 2012Looked at seven states
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/15/measuring-the-effects-of-voter-identification-laws/?_r=0
2.4 % Decrease in Voter Turn Out
1.2 % Net Swing to the Republican
Candidate
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/15/measuring-the-effects-of-voter-identification-laws/?_r=0
1.6 % Decrease in
Voter Turn Out
.08 % Net Swing to
the Republican
Candidate
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/15/measuring-the-effects-of-voter-identification-laws/?_r=0
0.8% Decrease in
Voter Turn Out
.04 % Net
Swing to the
Republican
Candidate
Average
Decrease in
Voter Turn 0ut: 1.17 %
RETURNING TO THE HYPOTHESIS
If 534,512 (3.8%) voters did not have the requisite ID,
and if only about 30% of eligible Texans vote, then the voter ID law prevented 160,000 (1.25%) people from voting.
Kurt Kuhn
LAWSUITS IN
OTHER STATES
Sean Homrig
ARIZONA
ARIZONA
•  Voters required to have documentary proof of citizenship to vote since
2004.
•  Invalidated by the U.S. Supreme Court in 2013, but only as to voters
using the federal form, not the state form.
•  Arizona joined Kansas in seeking to enforce the Election Assistance
Commission to change the federal form, and a federal judge ruled for
the two states.
•  The issue was heard by the 10th Circuit in August, and a decision is still
pending.
ARKANSAS
•  Strict voter ID law implemented in 2014.
•  Challenged in May in two separate cases, Pulaski County
Election Commission v. Arkansas State Board of Election
Commissioners and Kohls v. Martin.
•  Arkansas Supreme Court ruled in October that it
violated the state constitution.
•  As a result, no photo ID’s were required in November’s
election.
IOWA
•  In 2012, the Iowa Secretary of State imposed
strict rules imposed to purge ineligible voters.
•  In the same year, the ACLU filed suit, alleging the
Secretary of State exceeded his authority.
•  In March of 2014, a trial court ruled for the
ACLU.
•  An appeal is pending by the Secretary of State.