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THE WORLD ISLAND:
EURASIAN GEOPOLITICS
AND THE FATE OF THE
WEST
NIHAT ÇELIK
Kadir Has Üniversitesi
An undeclared war has already begun
between those powers of Eurasia and the
West; control of the mostly unexploited
energy and mineral sources of Eurasia.
WHETHER
AND HOW,
TO ENGAGE
IN EURASIA IS
THEREFORE
THE WEST’S
EXISTENTIAL
QUESTION.
new zones of influence by pressurizing the smaller Eurasian states in
order to eradicate Western influence. However, the typology of this
confrontation is different from the
Cold War era superpower rivalry.
Rather than blunt military force or
the threat thereof, the tools in play
are economic leverage and political
subterfuge. Signaling a return to
the age of geopolitics, the author
assesses the main geopolitical theories and doctrines such as Alfred T.
Mahan’s Sea Power Theory, Sir Halford Mackinder’s Heartland Theory,
Nicholas J. Spykman’s Rimland Theory, Josef Pilsudski’s PrometheismIntermarum Concept, and George
Kennan’s Containment Theory
from a historical perspective. Petersen does far more than merely
review these historical theories
and doctrines; he provides a useful
analysis of their current relevance
in line with technological developments and political, economic, demographic and security trends. He
amalgamates these theories to substantiate already proven geopolitical principles, presenting concrete
policy models to the decision-makers of the Euro-Atlantic Community
and its allies in Eurasia.
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The World Island is an attempt to
increase awareness of Eurasia’s
geopolitical importance in the
minds of Western decision-makers,
politicians, academics and public. Petersen underlines Eurasia’s
crucial role in the survival of the
Western democracies in the context of the ensuing confrontation
with autocratic regimes of Eurasia, to use the author’s terminology, the ‘Revanchist Bear’ (Russia)
and the ‘Rising Dragon’ (China). In
stark contrast to the ‘end of history’ or ‘end of geopolitics’ theses
that emerged in the over-optimistic environment of the post-Cold
War era, the author takes a realist,
straightforward approach, and issues a clear warning about the possible global implications of failed
Western involvement in Eurasia, in
relation to the future of democracy
and freedom. The author asserts
that an undeclared war has already
begun between those powers of
Eurasia and the West; control of
the mostly unexploited energy and
mineral sources of Eurasia and the
fate of the Western regimes will be
determined in the Eurasian landmass by their inaction or actions.
Russia and China are trying to form
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It is Sir Halford Mackinder’s Heartland Theory that primarily shapes
the author’s approach. He considers geography as a constant in
strategy formulation, while other
factors like population, production and military power are subject to change, and as such these
factors are considered as variables. Through an in-depth analysis of Eurasian history, Mackinder
showed that starting with the Huns,
westward invasions have always
been successful. In contrast, eastward invasions have been unsuccessful, as Alexander the Great, Napoleon Bonaparte and Adolf Hitler
proved. The main reason of this
failure lies in the geography: the
‘Pivot Area’ or ‘Heartland’, starting
IN THIS CLIMATE THERE IS A DANGER THAT CHINA MAY
EMERGE AS AN ALTERNATIVE SOURCE OF ECONOMIC
SUSTENANCE FOR MUCH OF THE DEVELOPING
WORLD.
at the isthmus between the Baltic
and Black Sea and reaching almost
to the Pacific Ocean in the east, is
the greatest natural fortress on the
world. It is surrounded by the Arctic Sea in the north, by deserts and
mountain ranges on other sides.
Contrary to Admiral Alfred Mahan’s
Sea Power Theory, which suggested
that a naval power can gain international influence by controlling
the important choke-points and
naval bases in the oceans. Mackinder showed that the Heartland
is inaccessible by any sea power,
while a land power established at
the Heartland can command the
oceans by controlling the World
Island (‘the Old World’ consist-
ing of Asia, Europe and Africa, the
mega-continent surrounded by interconnected oceans). Thus Mackinder formulated his famous dictum: “Who rules Eastern Europe
commands the Heartland; Who
rules the Heartland commands the
World-Island; Who rules the WorldIsland commands the World.”
Mackinder’s theory was supported
by the political developments in the
following decades, forming formed
the backbone of Karl Haushofer’s
Lebensraum Theory and Nazi political designs. Containment Policy of
George Kennan was also built upon
Mackinder’s solid basis, it aimed
at keeping the Soviet Union out of
the Mackinder’s ‘Inner Crescent’
or Nicholas Spykman’s ‘Rimland’.
However, the author suggests that
Containment Policy is simply not
enough to cope with the greater
threats of today. It can only provide
a minimum standard for what the
West must do in order to sustain
its position. Thus Petersen brings
to the fore the interwar era Prometheism-Intermarum (Between
the Seas) Concept developed by
Polish President Joseph Pilsudski,
which envisaged a confederation
of states in the area between the
Baltic and Black Sea, ranging from
Poland to Azerbaijan, as a counterweight to Russia.
The author provides a valuable
insight into the current state of
affairs in Eurasia ranging from regional organizations dominated by
Russia and China such as the Collective Security Treaty Organization
(CSTO) and Shanghai Cooperation
Organization (SCO), energy and
rich countries with the purpose of
establishing a monopoly over the
sources and energy projects of the
future, as a political tool. China,
feeling insecure due to the energy
and other mineral sources it needs
to sustain its high growth-rate in
the following decades, is working
with Russia to ‘plunder’ the Eurasian states. It is no surprise that
China is turning wealth into might
and power projection capability, as
“THE CORRESPONDING REALITY IS THAT UKRAINE
IS NOT ESSENTIAL FOR WESTERN INTEGRATION TO
CONTINUE IN EURASIA.”
shown by its huge naval armament
program. Pursuant to this, the author analyzes the strengths and
weaknesses of each Eurasian country situated between Russia and
China by providing statistical data
on their economies, populations,
and political orientation.
Then the author starts building his
Twenty-First Century Geopolitical Strategy for Eurasia (21 CGSE),
citing and where necessary updating the geopolitical theories mentioned above and current political
along with economic trends. He
puts forward policy prescriptions
for decision-makers, requiring genuine commitment and long-term
dedication. He suggests ‘the Three
I’s’ policy: Independence, Integration, Institutions. In his view, the
first necessary step is to decrease
the level of dependency of Eurasian
states on Russia and China by providing policy alternatives through
the use of political, economic and
cultural tools. Secondly, through
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transportation projects to armament projects. The Russia-Georgia
War of 2008 was a turning-point
in the recent history of the region,
changing all political calculations
and sending a clear message to
countries Western-oriented countries in Eurasia that were promoting universal values like democracy,
freedom and free-market economy.
The author argues that notwithstanding problems in their bilateral
relations and different regional designs, Russia and China are acting
together to eliminate Western influence in Eurasia. This is evident
through their intention to transform the CSTO into the NATO of
Eurasia by organizing joint military
exercises and requesting a UN mandate for peace-keeping missions
in the region. It is clear that the
main reason for this struggle is to
gain control of key energy sources
and the transit corridors of energy
projects. While Russia is itself resource rich when it comes to energy,
it still seeks to control other energy
NIHAT ÇELIK
THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY GEOPOLITICAL
STRATEGY FOR EURASIA ADVOCATES FAR GREATER
WESTERN INVOLVEMENT IN EURASIA THAN NEVER
BEFORE.
160
Russian President
Putin and Chinese
President Jintao
EU involvement and transportation projects such as the Northern
Distribution Network and the Modern Silk Road, Trans-Eurasian trade
should be revived. These would be
faster and more cost-effective in
comparison to the trans-oceanic
trade. However, the draconian customs regimes of the Eurasian countries undermine the development
of these trade routes which will integrate the region to the world and
foster trade, development, stability and regional integration while
breaking up Russian-Chinese monopoly. First of all, the customs re-
gimes should be changed to encourage trade. In addition, reasonable
investment in infrastructure is necessary, and should be provided by
the U.S. at the initial stages. Thirdly,
by supporting institution-building
efforts and promoting universal
values such as good-governance
and rule of law which will help
attract foreign direct investment,
Western institutions like the EU,
NATO, OSCE and Council of Europe
will play a crucial role. However, in
order to fulfill that role, those institutions should undergo reforms
and develop more effective mechanisms for their active involvement
in Eurasia. The author pays close
attention to Euro-Atlantic cohesion.
He argues that if members of the
Euro-Atlantic community choose
to act alone, as Germany did with
Russia for the Nordstream Pipeline
Project, this will only benefit the
autocratic and mercantilist powers
of Eurasia.
In conclusion, Alexandros Petersen’s work provides significant and
important insights into Eurasian
politics, offering an in-depth and
wide-ranging analysis of recent
developments and trends in the
region while providing a projection for the future, underpinned by
concrete policy options. It is necessary to read Petersen’s book to understand the dynamics of the ‘New
Great Game’.
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