1
North Sea
10.00
7000
9.00
6000
5000
7.00
6.00
4000
5.00
3000
4.00
3.00
Production kb/d
Discovery Gb/a
8.00
2000
2.00
1000
1.00
0.00
0
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Fig.1 The discovery of oil in the North Sea (Denmark, Norway and UK), shown in bars, peaked in
1973 and is broadly reflected in the subsequent peak and decline of oil production.
Discovery-Consumption Gap
80
70
60
50
Gb/a
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Fig.2 This graph plots the balance between consumption and discovery. World moved into deficit in
1982, as began to eat into its inheritance from past discovery
Prudhoe Bay Field
0.7
1989
Annual Production Gb
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
1977
0.1
0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Cumulative Production Gb
Fig.3 The decline of the Prudhoe Bay Field in Alaska with annual production compared plotted against
cumulative production. It is evident that all the technology that has been applied since decline set in 1989
has added virtually nothing to the size of the field. Such plots help verify reported reserve estimates.
2
N.Sea Creaming Curve
Norway, UK & Denmark
70
Cum. Discovery Gb
60
2001
50
1981
40
30
20
10
0
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Cum. Wildcats
Fig. 4 Cumulative discovery plotted against exploration boreholes, which are responsible for discoveries.
The larger fields are found first, being too large to miss, giving a hyperbolic trajectory that can be
extrapolated to show what is left to find.
Parabolic Fractal
4
3.5
Log Size
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1
10
100
1000
Rank
Present Size Distribution
Parabolic Distribution
Fig. 5 Actual field size distribution plotted against rank (largest, second largest, third largest……) on a
log-log scale, and compared with a parabolic model.
World
45
40
Production Gb
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1930
1950
1970
1990
2010
Hubbert
Actual & Forecast
2030
2050
Fig. 6 Actual world production compared with the theoretical “Hubbert” bell-curve of unfettered depletion.
There was a close fit until the oil shocks of the 1970s curbed demand, leading to a lower and later actual peak.
3
All Hydrocarbons
50
Non-Con Gas
45
Gas
40
NGL
Gboe
35
Polar
30
Deepwater
25
Heavy
20
Conventional
15
10
5
0
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Fig. 7 Forecast production of all hydrocarbons, based on assessed resource and extraction rate (Gas is
converted to oil equivalent on a value bases of 10 Tcf = 1 Gboe).
USA
Production kb/d
10000
9000
Deepwater
8000
Alaska
7000
Conventional
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Fig. 8. Oil depletion profile of the United States, including Non-conventional deepwater and polar oil
Russia
12000
Non-Conventional
10000
Production kb/d
Conventional
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
F
ig. 9 Oil depletion profile of Russia, showing the saddle due to the collapse of the Communist regime,
and the possible addition of polar Non-conventional, which awaits confirmation.
.
4
India
3
800
700
600
2
500
2
400
300
1
Production kb/d
Disciovery Gb (bars)
3
200
1
100
0
0
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Fig. 10 Oil depletion profile of India, showing discovery in bars
5
1800
5
1600
4
1400
4
1200
3
1000
3
800
2
600
2
1
400
1
200
Production k/bd
Discovery Gb (bars)
Indonesia
0
0
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Fig. 11 Oil depletion profile of Indonesia showing two cycles of discovery and corresponding production
16
4000
14
3500
12
3000
10
2500
8
2000
6
1500
4
1000
2
500
Production kb/d
Discovery Gb (bars)
China
0
0
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Fig 12 Oil depletion profile of China, showing how the early peak of discovery is to be mirrored by
production.
5
Middle East
Creaming Curve
800
Cum. Discovery Gb
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Cum. Wildcats
Fig. 13 Middle East “creaming curve” showing confirming that it is a concentrated geological habitat
with most of its oil in a few very large fields. The discovery trend shows that what remains to be found is
less by orders of magnitude.
.
Middle East Swing Production
10000
9000
Production kb/d
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Abu Dhabi
Iran
Iraq
Neutral Zone
Saudi Arabia
Kuwait
2020
Fig. 14. Production from the five Middle East Swing countries, indicating the demands made upon them
under the base case scenario of flat world demand to 2010 as modelled