University of Lethbridge
Department of Geography
Geography 3235 - Urban and Regional Modelling - Lab Assignment 1
Mysteries of Urban Growth and Urbanization in Alberta
Urban growth is something we take for granted, most cities are simply expected to grow while
most smaller urban places seem locked in a process of decline. But the more one thinks about it,
the more mysterious it is. Constant growth increments yield declining growth rates. Constant
growth rates generate growth curves which increase exponentially. We can't understand the
potential for future growth until past trends have been thoroughly explored.
Goal:
To describe and display urban population time series data, evaluate rates of urban growth and
graph changes in the level of urbanization in Alberta.
Data:
The population figures used in this assignment are extracted from the decennial census
which has been conducted every ten years since 1851 by Statistics Canada and its predecessor,
the Dominion Bureau of Statistics. The census gathers data for the entire Canadian population
effective June 1st of the census year. Beginning with the 2001 census, data began to be collected
effective May 15. (June 1 has become a common moving day and source of confusion.)
Instructions:
1. Plot the time series data for Alberta's six largest urban centres in Table 1 on the
arithmetic graph paper provided. Label the horizontal axis with dates from 1881 on the
far left to 2001 on the right edge of the paper (each ten year interval should span the same
distance). The vertical axis should be scaled in hundreds of thousands of population:
100,000 for each graduation. Use a straight edge to join each pair of points, forming a
growth curve for each city. Label each curve with the name of its city.
a. Describe the growth curves. Which cities are growing fastest? How can you tell?
Are there any instances of stagnation or decline?
2. Repeat 1 above, using the 4 cycle semi-logarithmic graph paper provided. Label the
vertical axis in a logarithmic series starting with 1,000 at the base of the vertical axis i.e.
1,000; 10,000; 100,000; 1,000,000.
a. Are any trends revealed in these curves that you did not see on the arithmetic
paper? What are the advantages and disadvantages of visualizing and portraying
growth on log paper compared with arithmetic paper? Can you account for any
episodes of particularly rapid growth? What factors account for these changes?
Are the population growth curves linear? Or log-linear?
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University of Lethbridge
Department of Geography
3. Repeat 1 above, using Microsoft Excel to enter the time series:
i. Graph the series as entered using an arithmetic scale for the y axis.
ii. Graph the series as entered using a logarithmic scale for the y axis.
iii. Compute log10 of the population data on a new sheet. Graph the series
using an arithmetic scale.
b. Compare your hand drawn work with the Excel output. What are the advantages
and disadvantages of computer graphics?
4. For the Calgary CMA, compute intercensal growth increments and growth rates. Display
your results as a table.
a. Explain how increments and growth rates are different. How do they relate to the
arithmetic and logarithmic series that you have graphed?
5. Compute the level of urbanization in Alberta for each time period from 1901 to 2001.
Graph Alberta's level of urbanization over time using an area graph and print it.
a. Is Alberta urbanized? Compare past and contemporary rates of urbanization. Does
further urbanization appear likely?
6. Why is Lethbridge so much smaller than Calgary and Edmonton? Several hypotheses
suggest themselves.
a. Calgary and Edmonton were established earlier and gained an important early size
advantage that Lethbridge could never overcome. (We could call this the runt of
the litter hypothesis.)
b. Calgary and Edmonton have benefited from superior strategic locations
throughout their growth histories and accordingly, they grew faster than
Lethbridge as they gained in population, power, and influence.
Answer this question and evaluate the hypotheses, making reference to the tables and graphs
you created above.
Your laboratory report should be typed with a cover sheet and submitted on September 22, 2004.
Following the format used in your textbook and using the Guide to Term Papers on the course
web page note that graphs and tables should be numbered with titles, axis labels, and a source to
indicate where you obtained the data.
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University of Lethbridge
Department of Geography
Table 1: Census Population for Urban Centres in Alberta
Year
1881
1891
1901
1911
1921
1931
1941
1951
1961
1971
1981
1991
1996
2001
263
700
2,626
31,064
58,821
79,187
93,817
159,631
281,027
495,702
740,882
841,132
862,597
937,845
100
3,867
4,398
43,704
63,305
83,761
88,904
129,060
249,641
403,319
625,966
754,033
821,628
951,395
4
1,478
2,072
8,050
11,907
13,489
14,612
22,947
35,454
41,217
54,072
60,974
63,054
67,374
Red Deer
n/a
50
323
2,118
2,328
2,344
2,924
7,575
19,612
27,674
46,393
58,145
60,075
67,707
Medicine Hatd
n/a
1,570
3,020
5,608
9,634
10,300
10,571
16,364
24,484
28,773
40,380
52,681
56,570
61,735
Fort McMurrayc
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
1,186
6,907
31,000
36,771
35,213
41,466
Urban Albertaf
n/a
n/a
12,000
109,936
177,170
227,882
266,000
450,000
851,576
1,196,255
1,727,545
2,030,893
2,142,815
2,374,610
Rural Alberta
n/a
n/a
61,000
264,359
411,284
503,723
531,000
489,000
480,368
431,620
510,179
514,660
554,011
566,535
Edmonton
CMAa
Calgary
CMAb
Lethbridge
Notes:
a. Edmonton CMA includes Fort Saskatchewan, Leduc, St. Albert, Spruce Grove, Sturgeon, Strathcona County, etc. Data from 1911
to 1951 were rounded to the nearest thousand. Prior to 1961, data are for the Edmonton municipality.
b. Calgary CMA includes Airdrie, Beiseker, Chestermere Lake, Cochrane, Crossfield, Irricana, Rocky View, and Sonu I.R. Data from
1911 to 1951 were rounded to the nearest thousand. Prior to 1961, data are for the Calgary municipality.
c. Population is for Fort McMurray until 1981, Special Municipality of Wood Buffalo in 1991 and 1996.
d. Population for Medicine Hat CA includes Cyprus MD, Irvine and Redcliff.
e. N/A indicates data not available, the centre was smaller than 1,000.
f. Urban is defined as any centre in excess of 1,000 population.
Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Canada, Various years.
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