IPA Beneficiary Country Needs Assessment - Macedonia
IPA Beneficiary Needs Assessment
Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
This publication has been produced with the assistance of the European Union. The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of the UNDP and WMO and can in no way be taken to reflect the views of the European Union.
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Contents
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List of Acronyms
AG
BCPR
CMC
DRR
GDP
HFA
HMS
ISDR
MRC
NGOs
UN
UNDP
WMO
Assessment Group
Crisis Prevention and Recovery Bureau
Crisis Management Centre
Disaster Risk Reduction
Gross Domestic Product
Hyogo Framework for Action
Hydrometeorological Service
International Strategy for Disaster Reduction
Red Cross of the Republic of Macedonia
Non-Governmental Organisations
United Nations
United Nations Development Programme
World Meteorological Organisation
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Executive Summary
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Introduction
Montenegro is highly exposed and vulnerable to natural hazards. However, to date we know little about the ability of the government and communities of the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
(hereafter Macedonia) to manage natural hazard-related risks. In line with the Hyogo Framework for
Action (HFA) 1 , which lead to a paradigm shift in disaster risk management from a post-disaster response to a comprehensive and strategic approach encompassing preparedness and prevention strategies, this assessment report focuses on the ability of the government and communities of the country to manage and reduce natural hazard-related risks, it identifies and elaborates general needs with respect to strengthening disaster risk reduction in Macedonia. The report was produced under the auspices of the South East Europe Disaster Risk Mitigation and Adaptation Programme
(SEEDRMAP), for which UNDP, WMO, ISDR, and World Bank are collaborating in their respective areas of comparative advantage. The UNDP component of the initiative covers disaster risk reduction (DRR) in general and aims to build capacity in DRR mainstreaming and the establishment of National Platforms, to promote the harmonisation of DRR methodologies, plans, and strategies, as well as to assess needs for the purpose of elaborating a regional strategy for strengthening DRR. The
WMO component of the project focuses on building the national and regional capacity of the
National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) in the provision of reliable weather, water and climate products and services such as hazard analysis, risk assessment, forecasts and warnings with adequate lead time to support the DRR activities of the IPA beneficiary countries and the region as a whole. Promoting cooperation between the NMHS, governmental institutions and the main economic sectors is a primary objective.
The five priority areas of action under the HFA are covered. The report begins with an analysis of the enabling environment and institutions involved in DRR. Risk assessment and early warning systems are then examined. The ensuing sections deal with capacity development and education, the integration of DRR into development, and the state of preparedness and response mechanisms.
Cross-cutting issues covered include gender, mechanisms for dealing with climate change, and regional and international cooperation. The report also includes an overarching SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis. To create this report, UNDP and WMO mobilized consultants to work jointly with national consultants. These teams consulted with a wide range of
DRR stakeholders. Detailed assessment of the DRR policies and practices as well as the NMHS capacities, gaps and were completed and conducted to the development of policy recommendations. The WMO technical recommendations to improve NHMS capacities are provided in Annex 2. Initial results were represented to national stakeholders during a National Policy
Dialogue held in Skopje on 15 November 2010 for review and discussion. During this meeting, highlevel participants endorsed the report, as well as a set of recommendations emanating from it.
These recommendations comprise the final section of the document.
1 The HFA was elaborated and signed by 168 countries during the United Nations World Conference on Disaster Reduction held in Kobe, Japan in January 2005. It sets the global DRR agenda through 2015.
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Natural Hazards and Disaster Risks
Macedonia is highly exposed to flooding, drought, extreme temperatures, forest fires and earthquakes. Seismicity is high and, according to a recent World Bank study, between 1990 and 2008 only three countries in Europe and the CIS experienced more climate related natural disasters.
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Floods are chief hydro-meteorological hazard. Flood frequency and intensity is rising. River floods in the major river basins are caused by long periods of rainfall and or the intensive melting of snow.
Flash floods caused by short intensive rainfall (most frequently by summer storms) can occur in smaller river basins. River floods occur in the basins of the Vardar, Crna Reka, Treska, Strumica,
Pcinja, Lepenec and Bregalnica rivers (Figure 1). The Vardar River Basin, which is the largest in the country, accounts for 80% of the water resources and experiences the highest level of exposure to flooding.
The floods of 1962 and 1979 resulted in economic losses of approximately seven percent of GDP (for each year), while economic losses resulting from the floods in 1994 amounted to 3.4% of GDP.
Flooding in 2004 affected 26 municipalities (mainly in the area of the upper Vardar, but also in the central, southern and south eastern parts of the country), with estimated damage of approximately
USD 21 million (primarily in the agriculture sector).
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Figure 1: Most Frequently Flooded Areas of Macedonia
(Critical areas indicated in red)
Source: <http://www.eea.europa.eu/soer/countries/mk/freshwater-drivers-and-pressures-macedonia/map-3-the-mostfrequent-1/image_view_fullscreen>
Meteorological and hydrological drought is also common in Macedonia. The most highly exposed agricultural zones are the Povardarie region (especially in the area of the confluence of the Crna and
2 The World Bank. 2009. Adapting to Climate Change in Eastern and Central Europe.
3 ISDR. 2008. SEE Disaster Mitigation and Adaptation Initiative: Risk Assessment Desk Review Study.
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Bregalnica rivers with the River Vardar), the south eastern portion of the country, the southern
Vardar Valley, the Skopje-Kumanovo Valley and Ovce Pole. A prolonged drought in 1993 wiped out much of the crop yield, damaged livestock and resulted in economic losses that comprised 7.6% of the total national income.
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Extreme temperature and heat or cold waves not only have a direct impact on the health of humans and animals (e.g., diseases affecting livestock) but also secondary impacts that can create the conditions for wildfires or lead to soil aridity, which makes certain areas more prone to mudflows.
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The year 1994 stands out in the period 1971-2000 as the hottest year on record in the country, with temperatures 2 0 C above the multi-annual average. High temperature anomalies were also registered in 1999, 2002 and 2003. Extreme air temperatures in July 2007 exceeded all other previously registered temperatures, with 45.7
0 С in Demir Kapija, 45.3
0 С in Gevgelija and 43.4
0 С in
Skopje.
Wildfires are considered to be the most frequent hazard in the country. Drought conditions and heat waves are highly conducive to wildfires. Between 1999 and 2007 there were 213 wildfires per annum, with an average affected area of 10,501 hectares per year.
6 Most of these occurred in 2000 and 2007 (476 and 589 fire occurrences with affected areas exceeding 46,000 ha and 50,000 ha, respectively). Economic losses and the corresponding cost of fire fighting in 2007 amounted to almost USD 30 million.
7 In addition to the economic losses, wildfires affect the biological diversity and microclimate of the areas concerned and can also create conditions for erosion.
The severity of extreme events like drought, heat waves, forest fires and flooding has intensified over the last few decades and as revealed in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change, this trend is expected to accelerate in the future as a result of climate change, leading, together with changes in land-use patterns and increased human settlements in areas that are prone to disasters, to increased risks in the coming years. According to World Bank estimates, Macedonia is among the ECIS countries that are most likely to experience dramatic increases in climate extremes (fifth among the twenty-eight countries analysed). The country was also ranked twelfth amongst these countries in terms of its overall vulnerability to climate change, using an index that took into account the level of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity.
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Macedonia is also prone to high seismic activity. Macedonia is divided into ten seismic zones, with the Vardar zone being the most active. The Skopje Vitina seismic zone is the most highly exposed when seismic intensity and the concentration of economic activity, building stock and population are taken into consideration. During the last century there were 194 earthquakes with intensity greater than VI on the MSK Scale: 44 at MSK VII, 15 at MSK VIII, nine at MSK IX, and two at MSK X.
The upper level of earthquake magnitude is between 6.0 and 7.8. An earthquake struck the capital
City of Skopje on 26 July 1963 (6.1 magnitude), killing 1,070 people and injuring more than 4,000.
4 Second national communication to the UNFCCC.
5 WHO. 2008. Health Action Plans for Heat Waves.
6 The total forest area in Macedonia is 965,650 ha.
7 More detail on this can be found in “Forest Fires July-August 2007: Assessment of Damage and Impact”, UNDP 2007.
8 Climate projections indicate that on average Macedonia will be exposed to a 1.9C increase in mean annual temperature by
2050, with the greatest increase in temperature projected to occur in the summer (a 2.5C increase) and a decline in mean annual precipitation of 5% by 2050, with a decline in the summer of 17%. See the World Bank 2010, “Former Yugoslav
Republic of Macedonia: Climate Change and Agriculture Country Note”
<http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTECA/Resources/MacedoniaCountryNote.pdf>.
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The level of damage was estimates at USD 3.1 billion and eighty percent of the city was destroyed.
The Bitola Earthquake of 1994 was 5.2 magnitude and affected 230,000 people resulting in economic losses of 3.4% of GDP.
Structural vulnerability in Macedonia can be attributed to inadequate design and the significant depreciation of buildings and infrastructure. With the exception of parts of Skopje, the physical and housing infrastructure is not sufficiently designed and or built to withstand medium to severe earthquakes.
9 Almost 70% of schools in the country were built without regard for seismic safety considerations. Drought vulnerability is high due to the deterioration of the canal irrigation systems due to poor maintenance: the service area of the irrigation systems declined from 85,000 ha in 1990 to
25,000 ha in 2002.
10 Since then only a fraction of this areas has been restored. Although there are large flood control structures in the areas of Skopje, Pelagonia, Strumica and Struga, these are inadequately maintained. Poor drainage also makes many areas prone to flooding, while inadequate sewage systems further exacerbate its impact.
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Socioeconomic vulnerability is high, owing first of all to a high rate of poverty: 28% incidence rate.
Poverty and unemployment (around 35% of the workforce) are particularly widespread in rural and mountain areas. Vulnerability factors also include outdated building codes and urban planning, unsustainable water management and agricultural practices, deforestation, industrial pollution and the disposal of toxic waste in areas highly exposed to flooding. In addition to women, children and the elderly, the population displaced by war is especially vulnerable to natural hazards.
Governance and Institutional Arrangements for DRR
Enabling Environment
The core legal acts pertaining to DRR in the country are listed below.
Constitution of the FYR Macedonia: Article 125 recognises major natural disasters or epidemics in the country as a state of emergency.
Law on Defence (2001): recognises civil protection as an important element of national defence and specifies actions and obligations pertaining to government, public enterprises and civil society in support of it.
Law on Protection and Rescue (2004): specifies the establishment and organisation of a protection and rescue system, the construction of protection and rescue facilities, risk assessment for possible hazards, the creation of a protection and rescue plan and spatial planning.
Law on Crisis Management (2005): lays the foundation for the Protection and Rescue
Directorate as well as the Crisis Management System (CMS) for prevention, early warning and the handling of crises.
9 <http://www.crid.or.cr/digitalizacion/pdf/eng/doc9128/doc9128-a.pdf>.
10 Jasminka Taseva. 2004. “Macedonia’s Experience in Irrigation Sector Reform”,
<http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTWAT/Resources/4602122-1213366294492/5106220-
1213389414833/7.1Irrigation_Sector_Reform_Macedonia.pdf>.
11 Ministry of the Environment and Physical Planning. 2007. The Second National Environmental Action Plan.
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Law on the Implementation of the Spatial Plan: specifies the execution of the spatial plan through the development of regional spatial plans, spatial plans for areas of special interest, municipal spatial plans and spatial plans for the City of Skopje as well as urban plans.
Hydrometeorological Law (2009): describes the obligations and mandates of the
Hydrometeorological Service within the CMS and specifies communication and cooperation
with the Crisis Management Centre for hazardous events.
Healthcare Act (1991): requires that the Ministry of Health and health institutions cooperate with the Protection and Rescue Directorate, the Red Cross and with other institutions and citizens when planning and operating in emergencies.
Although these laws provide a basic legal and regulatory foundation for DRR in the country there is a need to review them in order to eliminate the contradictions and overlapping mandates and competencies amongst institutions, as well as to shift the focus from preparedness and response to comprehensive DRR that includes prevention and mitigation.
The Government has set the development of a National DRR Strategy as a priority action for 2012.
Existing strategies related to DDR most prominently include the National Security and Defence Concept and the National Protection and Rescue Strategy. The National Security and Defence Concept (2003), based on the Law on Defence, identifies natural and other disasters as low-intensity threats to security.
It suggests the unification of the Civil Protection Forces and the Fire Protection Forces under the
Protection and Rescue Directorate in order to improve the country’s ability to react to emergencies.
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The National Protection and Rescue Strategy (2009) covers planning and preparation for a protection and rescue system and suggests measures to guide its development. The strategy is expected to bring about better risk assessment, extended monitoring and forecasting and warning communication. It gives high priority to compatibility and regional and sub-regional information sharing on natural disasters and other accidents, through the improvement of existing mechanisms and the use of better communications technology. The strategy envisages the establishment of an IT centre and the use of modelling and simulation methodology and technology in protection and rescue. It sets the requirements that must be fulfilled by municipal Councils and the City of Skopje in their own annual programmes for protection and rescue. Although the National Protection and Rescue Strategy sets the general guidelines, a more specific action plan is needed, as well as a framework for monitoring its implementation.
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All actors in the protection and rescue system are obligated to adopt a Plan for Protection and Rescue
(or Protection and Rescue Plan) that will regulate management, protection and rescue by local government units, companies, public enterprises, institutions and services for natural disasters, epidemics and other disasters.
14 Government, municipal organs and other institutions, such as trade companies, public enterprises etc., are required carry out risk assessments to provide a basis for these
12 Civil Protection Forces and Fire Protection Forces are currently under the separate supervision of the Ministry of Defence and the Ministry of Interior, respectively.
13 The Parliament adopts the strategy and decides on the protection and rescue budget. The Government determines and proposes the strategy, adopts a decision on the establishment of protection and rescue forces, adopts a decision on the material reserve, distribution of humanitarian assistance, training and exercise activities, population evacuation and the value of the damage.
14 Government of the Republic of Macedonia, 19 June 2006.
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plans, which are then to be reviewed by the Protection and Rescue Directorate.
15 In reality, few entities at the local and even national level possess an adequate capacity for this.
Attention to DRR in other relevant plans is uneven; including those listed below.
The National Development Plan (2007-09) recognises disasters as a general threat to many regions and drought and flooding as specific threats. Measures are specified for the construction and rehabilitation of flood control structures and flood management plans. In regard to drought, there is only the general recommendation for the “reorganisation of the system of preventive management” for water management. Earthquakes are not mentioned.
The National Environmental Action Plan (1996 and 2006) refers to the general threats of flooding and drought, but provides no specifics. Concerning earthquakes, it contains the recommendation to adapt design criteria to the seismic conditions of particular regions, elaboration of a national seismic protection strategy and the preparation of emergency plans for the provision of relief to the population affected by earthquakes.
The Spatial Plan of the Republic of Macedonia (2004) specifies the measures to be taken to mitigate the effects of earthquakes, flooding and wildfires. Measures are primarily conceived in terms of the review and enforcement of legislation and building codes, risk assessment
(emphasising both structural and socioeconomic vulnerabilities) and cost-benefit analysis of investment and retrofitting and or construction.
The National Agricultural and Rural Development Strategy 2007-2013 recommends addressing drought risks through the rehabilitation and construction of irrigation systems and the dissemination of drought resistant cereal crop varieties.
The National Health Environmental Action Plan charges the Ministry of Environment and
Planning and other relevant actors with risk assessment and planning related to health and environmental risks from natural disasters and industrial accidents, as well as inventory of at-risk facilities and elaboration of guidelines for staff within those facilities.
Despite significant attention accorded to droughts and flooding in the Second National
Communication and supporting studies, the National Action Plan specifically addresses these hazards only through the recommendations to create a database and improve early warning for climate extremes.
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To improve DRR planning there is a need for a dedicated DRR strategy that will provide a framework and starting point to address disaster risks holistically. Proceeding from this, overarching and sectoral plans should be refined to include a comprehensive assessment of the risks, achieve coherence amongst plans, specify the need for coordination amongst the relevant entities and incorporate non-structural as well as structural measures for disaster mitigation and identify targets and monitoring mechanisms.
Institutional Framework
The Crisis Management System (CMS) was designed to manage preparedness for emergencies and response in times of crisis. It is implemented by the state administration and state authorities
(Parliament, Presidency and Government), the armed forces, the protection and rescue forces (including
15 LPR, 2004, articles 8 -14.
16 The Ministry of Environment and Physical Planning’s Second National Communication on Climate Change (2008). Also see the supporting sector reports at <http://www.unfccc.org.mk/default.asp> and the National Adaptation Plan at
<http://unfccc.org.mk/documents/NAP%20final%20EN.pdf>.
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the PRD), municipal and City of Skopje authorities, public enterprises, technical institutions and services such as the Hydro-meteorological Service, companies, civil associations, the Macedonian Red Cross, charitable organisations and the media. As shown below, in Figure 2, the national CMS framework consists of a Steering Committee, an Assessment Group, both governmental bodies, and a Crisis
Management Centre (an independent state administrative body and separate legal entity). The role of these bodies is to facilitate and coordinate the proposal of decisions, provide for consultations and internal and international coordination in crisis management, timely response, efficiency and the adequate use of available resources in times of crisis as well as to provide a timely quality and realistic assessment of the threats, risks and hazards that endanger the security of the country. The Centre has eight sub-regional and twenty-seven regional centres countrywide. The CMS organises the collection of information, the conduct of situation assessments and analysis, goal and task-setting as well as the development and implementation of prevention activities, early warning and crisis management.
Figure 2: The Macedonian Crisis Management System
Source: Crisis Management Centre
The Crisis Management Centre, created in 2005, is composed of a headquarters at the national level and several Regional Crisis Management Centres.
17 The CMC organises the timely identification of phenomena and processes which threaten state security and or may lead to crisis, disseminates information to the CMS entities and the population, issues early warning alerts, monitors the situation, exchanges data and information and proposes crisis management and assessment measures. Its main competencies are to ensure continuity in inter-sector and international cooperation, consultation and coordination in crisis management, preparation and updating of the integrated assessment of all risks and hazards in the country, to propose measures and activities of response and resolution of crisis situations etc. Thus, the Centre operates a single communications and information system with a single country-wide call number for risks, hazards and other incidents. The single communication and information system operates on a 24 hour basis seven days a week.
17 The centres are located in the following municipalities: Berovo, Bitola, Valandovo, Veles, Vinica, Gevgelija, Gostivar, Debar,
Delcevo, Demir Hisar, Kavadarci Kicevo, Kocani, Kratovo, Kriva Palanka, Krusevo, Kumanovo, Makedonski Brod, Negotino,
Ohrid, Prilep, Probistip, Radovis, Resen, Sveti Nikole, Struga, Strumica, Tetovo, Stip, Gazi Baba, Karpos, Kisela Voda, Centar,
Cair and the City of Skopje.
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The Protection and Rescue Directorate is an independent state administrative body and a separate legal entity which started operating on 16 May 2005. It is comprised of a Directorate located in Skopje, eight regional units and thirty-five municipal protection and rescue units. Besides conducting risk assessment in cooperation with state authorities (on which little procedural specifications can be found), the
Directorate “organises and prepares the protection and rescue system” and proposes measures to be taken for the development of the latter. These include protection and rescue from fire and flooding. A
Training and Exercise Centre has been established within the Directorate for the professional training of the core and regional staff, municipal spatial staff, rapid response teams, professional and voluntary fire fighters, command personnel and protection and rescue forces.
One of the key features of the Directorate is its responsibility to efficiently utilise the protection and rescue forces (divided into republic protection and rescue forces and territorial protection and rescue forces) and the rapid response teams. The regional/unit rescue forces are commanded by the Director of the Protection and Rescue Directorate, whereas the “main protection and rescue staff commander is responsible to the Government”.
18 Bearing in mind that the Protection and Rescue Directorate is a separate and independent body, splitting the command and accountability of the protection forces in the process harms the clarity of their mandates.
Although their mandates are strongly oriented towards preparedness and response, the CMC and PRD possess some capacities in other areas of DRR. Capacity development for these entities should continue in this direction. Additionally, there is a need to clarify the mandates and competencies as well as coordination amongst them (as well as with the institutions in the CMS). During operations conducted in the last few years (most notably the wildfires of 2007) the overlap of jurisdiction created some confusion and made the response less effective. Duplication of responsibility also hinders risk assessment in the country.
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The Macedonian National Platform (NP) for DRR was established in April of 2009. However, due to a complex and inefficient structure, overlapping of roles and responsibilities, and creation of “parallel”
DRR institutions, a decision was taken to review and revise it. The main purpose for the revision was to comply with existing legal and institutional systems, responsible for monitoring, assessing and reducing identified risks, as well as for early warning, prevention and protection against all risks and hazards. With support by UNDP, in July of 2011 a revised NP was established. It is embedded in the national DRR/Crisis Management System and governed by the Steering Committee and Assessment
Group. The main body is the Council of the NP, which is an advisory body charged with ensuring the exchange of opinions, knowledge and experiences in the field of DRR, as well as developing strategies, programmes and plans. Thematic Working Groups provide expert support to the Council of NP and institutions in different thematic areas. This set-up of the NP strengthens the mechanisms for cooperation, coordination and consultation among participants not only on the national and local level, but also on the regional and global level. The inclusion of all entities that are part of the
18 Law on Protection and Rescue, Article 110.
19 For example, see the discussion on “Crisis Management and the Safety and Rescue System in the Republic of Macedonia,
Conclusions and Recommendation” from the forum organised by The Association of Macedonian Alumni of the George C.
Marshall European Centre for Security Studies, held in Skopje on 5 May 2009,
<http://www.ecbs.org.mk/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=21%3A2010-05-09-18-12-
09&catid=6%3Aforums&Itemid=21&lang=en>.
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DRR/Crisis Management System will facilitate the process of preparation and adoption of the
National DRR Strategy in 2012.
The National Hydrometeorological Service (HMS) is a unit within the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Water Management and was established to monitor hydrological and meteorological conditions.
According to the Law of Hydro-meteorological Activity, the HMS has the responsibility to operate the observation network and produce meteorological and climatological services and to provide technical and scientific support for other agencies., through basic data, information and weather forecasts to other organizations, at state, provincial and local levels. However, the HMS lacks sufficient human and technical capacities to fulfil its mandate. Cooperation between the HMS and the CMC has significantly improved over the last few years, but the involvement of the HMS in DDR policy making (as opposed to just planning) could be further increased.
Seismological services are provided by the Seismological Observatory of the Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics in Skopje. It performs observations and records regional and teleseismic earthquakes.
The observatory compiles and processes data on the macro-seismic effects of earthquakes. The observatory also performs scientific research, education and studies applications in the fields of seismology and geophysics. The Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Seismology (part of the same faculty) conducts research in support of defining building codes, improving seismic resistant construction and retrofitting as well as planning for recovery from earthquakes. It provides observation data to the CMC as well as to the European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre.
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Funding and Budgets
The main source of funding is the state budget; however, no funds are allocated specifically for risk reduction activities as such. When necessary the government “can” allocate up to 3% of its annual budget for disaster response. Financial reserves for the needs of the CMS are dedicated from the state budget.
21 The executive branch is actively involved in the process of the distribution and usage of the
DRR designated resources. The municipalities and local public institutions ought to have assigned emergency resources as part of their budgets, yet the DRR budget, especially for prevention and mitigation activities, is insufficient.
Risk transfer mechanisms are nascent; however, recently the World Bank approved USD 5 million in support for Macedonia within its Southeast Europe and the Caucasus Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility
Project. The programme will support membership contributions to the Europa Reinsurance Facility, Ltd.
The Facility will facilitate the growth of catastrophe risk insurance markets through risk assessment, design and pricing of insurance products, the establishment of small weather monitoring stations and making recommendations for regulatory and policy reform aimed at creating an enabling market environment.
Civil Society
The National Protection and Rescue Strategy includes trade companies and citizens associations amongst those entities that will participate in DRR. The Protection and Rescue Plan (adopted by the
20 <www.emsc-csem.org>
21 Law on Crisis Management, Official Gazette of the Republic of Macedonia, No. 64/2005 and 4/2008.
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Government in January 2009) contains a list of civil society organisations and humanitarian and nongovernmental organisations involved in protection and rescue.
Civil society is actively involved in DRR. Chief among the NGOs is the Macedonian Red Cross (MRC). The
MRC Disaster Preparedness and Response Department is linked to thirty-four municipal branches and plays a coordinating role in the event of a disaster through its Operations Centre, which is linked with the PRD and CMC. The MRC also signed contracts and memoranda of cooperation with the Ministry of
Interior, the Ministry of Defence, the Faculty of Medicine, the Crisis Management Centre, the Protection and Rescue Directorate and several Red Cross Societies of other countries. The MRC is also part of the
National Platform for the DRR NGO Network. The 2008-2010 MRC Disaster Management Development
Strategy sought to update contingency plans and improve preparedness and response capacities at the branch and national level.
The Alliance of Fire-fighters is also quite active in Macedonia. The Alliance unites ninety-eight volunteer fire-fighters associations into thirty-nine Municipal Fire-Fighting Alliances. According to the last membership census, these alliances have around 2,600 active volunteers.
Despite a dearth of resources, municipalities and communities are becoming more involved in DRR. The
UNDP project “Strengthening Capacities of the Crisis Management Centre (CMC)” has successfully promoted the inclusion of DRR into local development plans and actions by using an officially adopted instrument for needs assessment: Questionnaire for Capacity Assessment of Institutions at the Local
Level. Proceeding through the assessment methodology, local level risk management interventions have been undertaken, including the development of the Citizens’ Handbook for Crisis Management, training and exercises in preparedness and response, and the targeting of disaster mitigation through infrastructure projects. The latter have been undertaken in twelve municipalities on the basis of costsharing agreements, in some instances with the municipality providing the majority of the contribution.
Risk Assessment and Information Management
Post-Disaster Assessment
The Government of the Republic of Macedonia adopted a Unified Natural and Other Disaster Damage
Assessment Methodology in 2010 and this introduced uniform assessment principles and methods for defining the level of damage caused by different phenomena. The assessment ascertains the type and scope of the direct and indirect damage in terms of the cost and the physical damage and serves to identify the measures necessary to eliminate the damage and to estimate the losses. The assessment establishes the level of direct (defence costs, population shelter and health services) and indirect damage (loss of production due to natural or other disasters in directly affected areas). All damage is assessed, regardless of whether goods and resources are insured or uninsured or facilities illegally constructed. Concerning earthquakes, the Institute for Seismology and Earthquake Engineering also has the tools and capacity to conduct damage assessments.
The National Protection and Rescue Strategy specifies that the PRD shall focus on data recording and processing for all natural and other disasters; otherwise, damage assessment is the responsibility of expert committees that have defined coverage areas and are established in the municipalities and the
City of Skopje. Municipal councils adopt summary reports and send them to the State Damage
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Assessment Committee, which in turn drafts a summary report containing recommendations and suggested measures and sends it to the Government.
Risk Assessment
Both the PRD and CMC are mandated to perform risk assessment, although in practice CMC takes the lead in this matter. Additionally, the line ministries and municipalities as well as the seismological and hydrometeorological services are mandated to either participate in or conduct their own risk assessments. At the local level in particular, these do not appear to have been executed. In general, the system would benefit from the clarification of mandates and strengthened coordination.
Traditionally the primary emphasis in risk assessment was upon hazard analysis and structural vulnerability, with much less attention paid to socioeconomic vulnerability and capacity, particularly with regard to vulnerable social groups i.e., women, children, the elderly and displaced persons. With
UNDP support, CMS is improving methodology in accordance with EU Guidelines for Risk Assessment and Mapping, and actions to strengthen capacity to implement comprehensive risk assessment have been implemented since 2009 and are ongoing. A decree on National Risk Assessment was approved in
January 2011 and a NRA (for multi-risk) is being implemented led by CMC. The base data collection phase is ongoing and will end by the end of 2011.
On the basis of a broad consultative process, CMC with UNDP support has elaborated a Manual for
Preparation of Integrated Risk and Hazard Assessment. It will be applied in a series of local level assessments of disaster and climate risks, which will support mitigation, preparedness, awarenessraising, and education measures.
Information Management
The process of information exchange between the various authorities responsible for the monitoring of risks of natural disasters is regulated by a decree that stipulates that institutions shall send all relevant information to the CMC. However, the timely and coordinated exchange of information is not always guaranteed. For instance, the CMC relies on HMS involvement in the Crisis Management System for hydrological analysis and floods characterization. The HMS does not regularly perform analyses to characterize either the hazards or their mapping, but it has the competencies to play this role. There is need of a direct technical link for exchange of data in real time between CMC and HMS. Furthermore, lack of budget and human resources hampers the capacity of HMS to ensure comprehensive, quality controlled meteorological and hydrological databases. The PRD also maintains a database of disaster risk information, as does the State Statistics Office and the Ministry of Finance.
In order to work towards a coherent disaster information management system, CMC has developed an e-governance data sharing platform. On this basis, the CMC will collect disaster data from the different ministries for the day-to-day disaster data collection and store it in the central database (a National
Disaster Observatory), which will be developed with support from the UNDP.
Early Warning Systems
The CMC is responsible for the provision of early warning to the population, on the basis of a rapid analysis of data and on advance analysis received from the HMS, the seismological observatory, the
Ministry of Health and other monitoring entities. The CMC has been working on risk assessment to
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strengthen its capacity for rapid analysis and other agencies will have to do the same for the system to function smoothly.
The CMC and the HMS have signed Agreement for Cooperation, Standard Operations Procedures regulating the type of data and information, mode and procedures for their submission to CMC and for mutual cooperation are under preparation. The National Operations Center of the CMC moreover maintains a permanent direct link with the HMS, through which relevant hydrometeorological data, forecasts and warnings for hydrometeorological hazards are disseminated. In this respect, the HMS operates the hydrometeorological observation network and produces weather forecasts and warnings. There is a need to strengthen and modernize the weather radar and the meteorological and hydrological surface networks and to increase the number of automatic stations, especially additional rain gauge and water level automatic stations on upstream catchments. MS capacities in hazard forecasting through the promotion of numerical weather prediction and hydrological modeling should be enhanced.
CMC 2011-2013 Strategic Plan and a recently completed feasibility study envisage the establishment of a single information and communications centre with a single emergency call number and consisting of three regional centres in an integrated emergency call system. There is a need to develop messaging and build the capacity of the media and other channels to deliver warnings, as well as to ensure that adequate response capacities are in place in high risk locales.
Capacity Development
Awareness-Raising and Public Education
Individual institutions such as the CMC, PRD, the Red Cross, MEPP and the Ministry of Health have led public awareness campaigns on wildfire prevention, flooding, earthquakes, extreme temperatures and similar. However, the funding for this is inadequate and these efforts have been sporadic. Instead of these isolated initiatives a coordinated effort is needed to raise and maintain public awareness about preparedness and the capability to avoid the risk of natural disasters and mitigate their consequences.
Several parts of the higher education institutions the Ss. Cyril University and the Methodius University, including the Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, the Institute of Earthquake Engineering and
Engineering Seismology, the Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, the Faculty of Electrical Engineering and
Information Technology, the Faculty of Medicine, the Public Health Institute and the Institute for
Security, Defence and Peace within the Faculty of Philosophy, offer curricula on DRR policies, peace and humanitarian aspects and issues, risk assessment and management, civil protection, human security and development, and environmental security. Research, particularly by the Institute of Earthquake
Engineering and Engineering Seismology, is applied within the DRR system. However, cooperation between academic and state institutions should be improved to more fully utilise their capacities.
The integration of DRR into public education outside of universities is only just beginning. The UNDP
CMC strengthening project has supported the CMC in the development of a course on Security and
Protection from Natural and Other Disasters, which is being introduced into primary and secondary schools. It has also created and disseminated a Citizens’ Handbook on Crisis Management (through which around 210,000 people have been sensitised) as well as an educational video game on DRR.
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Training
Depending on their financial capacity, institutions such as the CMC, PRD and the Macedonian Red Cross organise ad-hoc training programmes (usually project activities or regional cooperation, funded by international donors). The CMC has recently strengthened its efforts to develop the capacity of its own staff, while the MRC continues to improve the response capability of its volunteer network. The PRD coordinates national and thematic drills with the CMC, the Ministry of Health, the Ministry of
Environment and Planning, fire brigades, the Red Cross and others. These can involve up to thirty-nine institutions in test exercises (e.g., industrial accident scenarios). The CMC and the PRD also participate in thematic exercises organised by international partners, such as NATO civil-military exercises.
Although these efforts are encouraging there is a need for greater attention to comprehensive DDR, as much of the training remains response oriented; more attention should also be paid to vulnerable social groups.
Disaster Prevention and Mitigation
To date, the Ministry of Environment and Planning has been the most fundamentally involved in disaster prevention, as it is responsible for the elaboration and implementation of the Spatial Plan. The Plan envisages, amongst others, a number of measures including improvement and enforcement of the building codes, zoning, the improvement of water supply and the road and transport infrastructure for response to fires, urban planning and the rehabilitation of riverbeds and the installation of flood control structures. Yet, so far, implementation has been rather weak and, as noted above, the inclusion of DRR in other plans (most of them related to the environment) has been piecemeal and lacked coherence.
There is a need for other sectors to become involved in DRR and, moreover, risk assessment must improve along the lines noted above in order to target beyond the most obvious sectors, locales and segments of the population. An overarching coordination mechanism is required and it is hoped that the National Platform will provide this.
Mitigation is nascent at local level, yet capacities and approaches are being developed under the UNDP
CMC strengthening project. As climate change adaption measures in the field of agriculture would produce multiple benefits in terms of DRR, livelihoods and the environment, integrating DRR into local level and especially rural interventions is crucial.
Preparedness for Disaster Response
The CMC and PRD are the two main institutions that deal with preparedness for disaster response and eight out of the twenty-seven CMC regional offices have a 24/7 operational crisis management centre.
The CMC collaborates with civil society organisations, NGOs and the Red Cross as well as with the private sector on disaster response. Collaboration with the private sector mainly consists of the State’s obligation to have an inventory of all relevant company resources applicable for crisis response and to establish pre-agreements with such private companies. In the case of participation in disaster response and reconstruction the State is then compelled to compensate the private sector.
The PRD possesses the greatest material, technical and human resources for disaster response. The PRD works 24/7 and has thirty-five local level offices for crisis management and has developed rapid
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response teams comprised of 8,000 trained volunteers and professionals with diverse capabilities: first aid, urban search and rescue, water rescue, traffic rescue, mining accidents and similar.
Although it is the primary area of focus for DRR agencies in Macedonia there remain several needs in terms of response, these include the following:
Clarification of jurisdiction amongst the relevant organisations;
Improvement of operational procedures for the efficient engagement of response resources;
Strengthening operational procedures for engaging international institutions;
Adequate provision of trained personnel;
Upgrades in equipment and material (fire engines, ambulances, search and rescue
equipment, fire fighting aircraft and similar);
Better communications via emergency communications systems and information management systems for collecting, analysing, and sharing real-time data between emergency response units and other public authorities;
A functioning 112 emergency call system;
Improved risk assessment to support contingency planning.
Cross-Cutting Issues
Gender
The Republic of Macedonia has ratified the Convention on the Elimination of all Forms of Discrimination
Against Women and its Optional Protocol.
22 After having obtained EU candidate status and adopting the updated National Plan for Adoption of the Acquis (2007-2010) equal opportunities policies and activities are being transposed into domestic legislation. AS a UN Member State Macedonia is also obliged to implement the provisions of the Gender Representation Agenda, which defines concrete measures and aspects that affect the process of crisis management.
23 Many institutional policy and capacity strengthening measures have already been taken to enhance the gender dimension. The Law on Equal
Opportunities for Men and Women, for example, requires a degree of cooperation between state administrative bodies and the relevant associations in the planning and implementation of legislative measures. It also requires the involvement of the Ministry of Labour and Social Policy in the adoption of measures that contain elements of gender representation. The National Gender Equality Action Plan
(NGEAP) 2007-2017 24 contains a commitment to integrate the principles of gender equality into policy planning, formulation, implementation, monitoring and evaluation.
Despite these measures, gender is incompletely accounted for in DRR. However, some progress has been made in this direction under the UNDP CMC strengthening project, which has established a Gender
Team within the CMC and nominated a Gender Focal Point. In addition, a Web based Gender Repository
Database and a Web based System for Learning, Examination and Survey have been developed. These software applications now support the Gender Team within the CMC in ensuring the integration of
22 These came into force in November 1991 and October 2001, respectively.
23 The Eight Point Agenda: Practical, Positive Outcomes for Girls and Women in Crisis, 2007
http://www.undp.org/cpr/we_do/8_pa.shtml.
24 Article 11 of the adopted Law on Equal Opportunities for Women and Men established the legal framework for adoption of the National Equal Opportunities for Men and Women Action Plan. The scope of the Law will be regulated by a National Plan which shall build upon this NGEAP.
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gender equality considerations into its work. It will also strengthen the current and future knowledge of
CMC employees on gender issues in a sustainable way. A Guide for Raising Gender Awareness has been developed; however, there the need to build upon these efforts within CMC and other agencies remains.
Climate Risk Management
The Republic of Macedonia is Party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and to the Kyoto Protocol.
25 The first and second National Communication to the Conference of the
Parties explicitly mentioned the need to address the risks associated with the likely intensification of meteorological hazards. Nevertheless, as noted above, the action plan proceeding from these analyses falls well short of what is possible. There is a need for an approach that integrates DRR and climate change adaptation, focusing upon the management of present-day climate risks whilst at the same time building resilience to climate change in the future. To meet this requirement, HMS capacities in climate change analysis should be strengthened so that it could produce large-scale climate change studies and support climate risk management. The upcoming phase of the current UNDP CMCs strengthening project intends to pilot this approach at the local level and integrate climate change projections and likely impacts into its risk assessment activities.
Regional and International Cooperation
Most DRR agencies have developed regional and bilateral forms of cooperation linked to DRR. At the national level these include the CMC, PRD, CMC, MEPP, HMS and the Institute of Earthquake
Engineering and Engineering Seismology and line ministries.
26 Additionally, Macedonia participates in the following:
Hyogo Framework for Action, Macedonia is an active participant in HFA reporting and its implementation benefits from a considerable amount of political will;
Disaster Preparedness and Prevention Initiative for South Eastern Europe, Macedonia participates in the Project for Establishing Joint Emergency Response Units in Case of Floods as well as the
Harmonisation of Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries;
European Mediterranean Seismological Centre, the seismological observatory is part of the
Euro-Med observatories and research facilities for European seismology;
Agreement for the Establishment of Civil-Military Emergency Planning for the Countries of
Southeast Europe, through this Agreement Macedonia seeks to upgrade standard operating procedures for international assistance amongst the states;
Strengthening of the Capacities of the Crisis Management Centre Project, supported by the
Japanese Government and UNDP (as described above);
South East Europe and the Caucasus Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility, funded by the World
25 The country ratified the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) on 4 December 1997 and the Kyoto
Protocol in July 2004.
26 Such as, for example, the CMC-USAID Memorandum of Understanding and Cooperation for the Technical Assistance for
Human and Institutional Development Programme (2006); CMC participation in the Marshall Centre’s Seminar on
Transatlantic Civil Security programme; experience exchange in fire-fighting and disaster protection between the CMC and the Brandenburg Ministry of Interior; the agreement between the Government of the Republic of Macedonia and the
Republic of Turkey on cooperation in the prevention, confinement and mitigation of disaster and accident impacts; bilateral crisis management agreements between the CMC, PRD and MEPP and Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro, and the
Memorandum of Cooperation between the Macedonian Office of UNICEF and the CMC (2010).
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Bank (as described above).
Regarding the hydrometeorological sector, development of capacities to support disaster risk management and reduction could significantly benefit from regional coordination and cooperation, leveraging expertise, capacities, resources and information across the region among SEE countries and with various regional centres in Europe. The HMS recently integrated the European
Meteorological Infrastructure by becoming a Member of the European Centre for Medium-Range
Weather Forecasts, and of the Network of European Meteorological Services. In the sub-region, the
HMS is contributing to activities of the Drought Management Centre for SEE in Ljubljana (Slovenia).
SWOT Analysis
Based upon the aforementioned analysis, several strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats are apparent for DRR in Macedonia. These are presented below.
Strengths
The Republic of Macedonia’s National Platform for the reduction of risks from accidents and natural disasters has been introduced as a result of increased awareness that Macedonia needs to strengthen and improve its DRR policy efforts, primarily by implementing the five Hyogo priorities. The introduction of the National Platform has increased the attention and awareness of the majority of entities participating in the PRS and CMS as well as of the Government concerning the importance of these priorities. Unlike some other pieces of legislation, the National Platform clearly and concretely sets the strengthening of an integrated and efficient DRR policy through prevention, early warning and disaster threat and consequence management as a priority. The National Platform should allow the Crisis
Management System (and the CMC, as its focal point) to serve as a basic institutional framework, meaning that the entities participating in the CMS should also participate in the National Platform.
The acceptance of the HFA and its five main priorities for action, as well as the introduction of the
National Platform for DRR, is a strong input that can facilitate the transition from reactive to preventive policies, risk management and a DRR system. The message and goals of the National Platform should strengthen the capability of the country and its institutions to maintain efficient and sustainable development, with or without the reduced impact of disaster hazards. The introduction of the National
Platform for DRR is a serious effort to overcome the shortcomings identified in the functioning of the security policy, especially in its natural disaster management segment.
Reform processes in the field of defence and security have already led to improvements in efficiency, for example, the separation of Civil Protection from the Ministry of Defence, the adoption of the Law on
Protection and Rescue, and the subsequent establishment of the Crises Management Center.
Gaps/Weaknesses
Macedonia’s strategic development documents do not incorporate the DRR concept as defined by
UNSIDR, namely they are based on the concept of self-protection and civil protection as part of the traditional defence protection system or as a response to the risks we face. The reactive approach i.e., the treatment of the consequences of potential military destruction or natural or technological disaster prevails. These documents do not provide a basis for incorporating an operational preventive policy
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towards risk that should be seen as complex and changing processes that cause hazards of a certain type and intensity. A revision of these reactive and expensive ways of dealing with multi-sectoral and proactive policies seems necessary.
Opportunities
The hydro-meteorological sector in Macedonia has a great potential for contributing to DRR. It could, for example, be considered that a 24-hour early warning centre established within the meteorological service in order to secure appropriate human, technical and financial resources in the hydrometeorological sector would maintain its role in the various stages of DRR (hazard monitoring, forecasting and warning, etc.) and enable it to analyse climate change at the local level and improve the automatic hydrological and weather radar network.
In regard to awareness raising and training, the LPR foresees secondary school curricula on protection and rescue. The Education Development Bureau, in cooperation with the PRD and CMC, could transform project activities on peace, tolerance and protection from elective to mandatory courses. Public administration employees and public office holders involved in crisis management and disaster risk reduction should be given the opportunity to participate in life-long learning and annual training programmes.
In terms of capacity strengthening and raising public awareness on the importance of DRR policy implementation, the compulsory and or optional curricula in primary and secondary education should include these priorities. Formal education should build upon the currently used ad-hoc approach to education and training by the CMC, DZS and CKRM. Higher education offers more programmes developed within the various scientific disciplines of the academic and scientific institutions. However, these programmes are insufficiently used, primarily due to a lack of cooperation between academic and state institutions; cooperation is required on staff education and training as well as on research projects and on the practical education of students in these institutions.
Threats
Although certain development documents recognise the importance of an increased and improved ability to deal with natural disasters the complexity of contemporary natural disaster risks and their impact on human development are not recognised. The same problem is reflected in legislation and other sectoral documents.
One problem is the unclear definition of competences within the risk management process, namely risk assessment, vulnerability assessment and improved preparedness. This is the case in particular with the
Law on Protection and Rescue and the Law on Crisis Management. In theory, the LPR defines the policies, means and forces for dealing with the consequences of natural disasters and introduces a system of institutions and entities to react to them, while the LCM extends the meaning and scope of risks and stresses prevention as an important part of the process. But in practice it seems that both laws are attempting to respond to almost the same risks. As a result of this unclear repartition of competencies the field of natural disaster risk management remains segmented. If the National Platform bases itself on the conceptual and institutional frameworks of the LCM and LPR (which insufficiently incorporate the DRR model) it will run the risk of also adopting their weaknesses. The problem of overlaps should be solved legally and not through the National Platform. Almost 70% of respondents to the survey supported the statement that institutions are fully involved in the activities of the National
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Platform. However, the responses also show that the effective functioning of the National Platform will depend on the institutions’ equipment, their (limited) human resources, the training for implementation of activities envisaged for the Platform as well as the resolution of institutional overlaps.
In addition, the definition of crucial terminology is not always homogeneous. This situation could be improved if the capacities envisaged for the LCM were to be fully introduced, which would enable dynamic monitoring of the data on natural disaster risks provided by the various entities of the crisis management system: HMS, MEPP, the Ministry of Health and the Forest Management Public Enterprise.
These weaknesses would result in a reactive approach that would comprehend the risks and risk monitoring in a traditional manner i.e., in a static rather than dynamic way. Therefore, more systematic efforts are needed to integrate the DRR approach into national policy development and to coordinate the efforts of the various sectoral policies for adaptation to the environmental impact of climate change and to reduce natural disaster risks and secure stable economic development.
Recommendations Endorsed by the National Policy Dialogue
Based on an analysis of the aforementioned Needs Assessment Report, the following recommendations have been suggested for discussion and endorsement during the course of the DRR National Policy
Dialogue in Macedonia. The recommendations are aligned with the Hyogo Framework for Action and its five priorities for action.
1. Ensure that disaster risk reduction is a national and a local priority with a strong institutional basis for implementation.
Integrate the DRR concept into the Republic of Macedonia’s key strategic documents and development and sectoral policies; incorporate development and sectoral policies in a clear
and comprehensive framework i.e., produce a DRR strategy that will link national, regional and local development priorities to natural disaster risk prevention and reduction.
When incorporating DRR into national, regional and local sectoral policies institutions shall follow the DRR concepts and definitions accepted by the ISDR and use commonly accepted terminology.
When incorporating DRR into the various sectoral policies a harmonised methodology and
coordinated approach should be used, emphasising the proactive approach to the promotion of development, adaptation to climate change and a reduction of natural disaster risks.
Initiate adaptation/amendment of legislation to implement national and sectoral policies for
accident and disaster risk reduction for subsequent national and local implementation; in a coordinated approach and with mutual coordination and respect for each others advantages the actors of the crises management and protection and the rescue systems (CMC and DRP ) shall remove any shortcomings that cause overlaps in the responsibilities or activities of national and local institutions.
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The National Platform for DRR should blend into the current regulatory and institutional framework and continue its role as a public awareness promoter and as a forum for
harmonisation and coordination of sectoral policies. The National Platform shall improve its comparative advantage as an active and flexible forum for cooperation and the initiation of projects and ideas that will facilitate the efficient functioning of the DRR system.
2. Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance early warning.
The CMC shall prepare a natural disaster risk analysis and monitoring methodology. In
cooperation with other actors in the system, it shall organise appropriate training on that methodology, improve cooperation between key institutions, such as the CMC, PRD, HMS and the IEEES, for the more efficient exchange of information and the implementation of standard operating procedures and their harmonisation with the methodologies, procedures and recommendations of the UN/ISDR, DRR, WMO and of the European institutions engaged in this field.
In cooperation with other entities in the system, the CMC shall finalise the establishment of an early warning system which will be based on natural and manmade disaster risk analysis,
monitoring and information sharing. The CMC shall continue with the introduction of the
European Emergency Number 112. In preventing natural meteorological disasters it is crucial to increase the technical capacities and expertise of the national hydro-meteorological service, particularly for early warning on meteorological and hydrological disasters, by improving weather and water measurement, analysis and forecasting.
3. Use knowledge, innovation and education to strengthen the culture of safety and resilience at all levels.
The Protection and Rescue Directorate and the Training and Exercise Centre shall increase their capacities for the efficient training of the central, regional and municipal headquarters, the rapid response teams, the professional and volunteer fire-fighters, the command staff and the rescue and protection forces.
Establish partnerships between educational, academic and research institutions and the Crisis
Management System entities that promote and implement the DRR concept. The Ministry of
Education and the Education Development Bureau, in cooperation with educational and academic institutions, the CMS/PRS entities and the CKRM, shall introduce continuous DRR education and training and shall support national and local projects in cooperation with the
UNDP and other relevant international institutions.
Introduce compulsory and elective DRR courses in primary, secondary and higher education that will develop a culture of prevention and care for the relations between man,
environment and development (as called upon by the UN in Approaching United Nations
Decade of Education for Sustainable Development 2005-2014).
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4. Reduce the underlying risk factors.
Establish comprehensive risk identification, analysis and monitoring process, including community risk exposure and community risk vulnerability assessment methodologies, for
specific risks. The CMS entities shall develop appropriate risk exposure and vulnerability assessment methodologies, thereby paying attention to the socio-economic and gender aspects.
Separate funds shall be allocated within the existing budgets to finance the DRR policy nationally and locally and to strengthen regional cooperation.
Enhance cooperation between the HMS and the other entities to fully use the HMS’s potential for monitoring and early warning on the impact of hydrological, meteorological and
environmental risks: data, analysis, human resources and reporting.
5. Strengthen disaster preparedness for effective response at all levels.
Strengthen the technical and human resources of the hydrometeorological sector to support risk assessment and early warning systems by promoting operational monitoring, warning,
forecasting and mapping of meteorological and hydrological hazards. It is critical to upgrade and modernise the national Hydrometeorological Monitoring and Information Exchange
Network and the forecasting system and to provide sustainable organisational resources, human resources (education and training, IT expertise, international cooperation and networking) and technical resources (upgrading of the automatic hydrological and weather radar network, integrate hydrological models in NWP modelling, integrate air pollution dispersion models with
NWP modelling) and increase the budget available to the HMS for efficient meteorological and hydrological disaster risk monitoring, forecasting and warning.
Strengthen human resources for hydrological data management and analysis, modelling and
water forecasting with at least six hydrologists (Construction Engineers – hydrology majors).
Strengthen the human resources for automatic hydrological and meteorological observation station maintenance with three electronics technicians. Make organisational changes within the
HMS with emphasis on water forecasting and flood protection and meteorology (calibration of measurement instruments) and modernise the Hydrological Information and Forecasting
System.
Strengthen, modernise and regularly maintain hydrological and meteorological monitoring and regularly upgrade measurement networks with modern monitoring, data collection and
transfer systems using plans and standards. Include weather radars within hydrological monitoring as the technically most efficient measurement tool for rain analysis and water and flood forecasting, especially for early warning on flash floods.
Make hydrological models for water and long distance wave travel forecasting for the Vardar,
Strumica and Crn Drim rivers and their tributaries. Put in place a hydrological warning and alarm system that contains information on extremely dangerous water thresholds and hydrological maps of areas susceptible to the risk of flooding in urban and rural areas.
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Annex 1: South East Europe Disaster Risk Management Initiative
In 2007, the World Bank, together with European National Platforms for DRR and HFA Focal Points and in partnership with the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and others, initiated the
South East Europe Disaster Risk Management Initiative (SEEDRMI), including the development and upgrading of hydro-meteorological information and the flood forecasting system for the Sava River
Basin. Also in 2007 the World Bank, the WMO and the United Nations Development Programme
(UNDP), with support from the International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR)
Secretariat, initiated the South Eastern Europe Disaster Risk Mitigation and Adaptation Programme
(SEEDRMAP). This programme is aimed at the development and/or strengthening of national capacities in this region in line with three components: (i) disaster risk management, institutional capacities and governance; (ii) hydrometeorological services; and, (iii) financial risk transfer mechanisms to assist countries in reducing risks associated with natural hazards. Beneficiary countries of this initiative include Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Former
Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Romania, Serbia, Kosovo (as defined by the
United Nations Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1244/99), Slovenia and Turkey. During the first phase of the programme, fact finding surveys and desk studies were performed in order to obtain the information required for the development of relevant projects; the results of these analyses have been published in a number of reports.
27 Based on these results and consultations with the countries, World Meterological Organization (WMO) and UNDP developed, in parallel, two complementary proposals that were funded by the European Commission (EC) Directorate General for Enlargement through its Instrument for Pre-Accession Assistance (IPA).
28 These EU funded projects, initiated in March 2009, cover Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, the Former
Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Kosovo (as defined by UNSCR 1244/99) and
Turkey.
The overall objective of the UNDP Proposal Activity 1 Regional Programme on Disaster Risk
Reduction in South East Europe is to reduce the risk of disasters associated with natural hazards in the Western Balkans and Turkey, in line with the Hyogo Framework for Action, by building the capacity of national and local authorities to promote a coordinated approach to DRR. The specific objective is to increase the level of regional DRR cooperation in South East Europe and to promote the harmonisation of Disaster Risk Reduction methodologies, plans and strategies in order to pave the way for the eventual preparation of a harmonised and mutually accepted regional Disaster Risk
Reduction strategy.
The activities of the UNDP proposal place special emphasis on strengthening the existing DRR capacities of the eight IPA beneficiaries, particularly the enhancement of the Disaster Preparedness and Prevention Initiative for South East Europe (DPPI SEE). The UNDP project/programme is largely funded by the European Union, with a ten percent contribution from the UNDP Bureau for Crisis
27 Risk Assessment for South Eastern Europe Desk Study Review, 2008; Strengthening the Hydro-meteorological Services in
South Eastern Europe, 2008; Mitigating the Adverse Financial Effects of Natural Hazards on the Economies of South Eastern
Europe, 2008; The Structure, Role and Mandate of Civil Protection in Disaster Risk Reduction for South Eastern Europe,
2008.
28 Activity 1: Building Capacity in Disaster Risk Reduction through Regional Cooperation and Collaboration in South East
Europe (UNDP); Activity 2: Regional Cooperation in South Eastern Europe for Meteorological, Hydrological and Climate
Date Management and Exchange to Support Disaster Risk Reduction (WMO).
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Prevention and Recovery (UNDP BCPR) and the UNDP Regional Bureau for Europe and the CIS
(RBEC).
The overall objective of the WMO Proposal Activity 2 „Regional Cooperation in South Eastern Europe for Meteorological, Hydrological and Climate Data Management and Exchange to Support Disaster
Risk Reduction” Project is to reduce the vulnerability of South Eastern Europe to natural hazards and address the loss of life, property and economic productivity caused by extreme weather and other natural hazards. The specific objectives are two-fold:
Improve the basic systems for hydro-meteorological forecasting and data sharing that underpins the early warning systems for weather and climate related hazards and extreme events; and,
Improve the capacity (technical, human and institutional) of the national meteorological and hydrological services (NMHS) in SEE to acquire, assimilate, exchange and disseminate data and information on a range of hydro-meteorological hazards and extreme weather and climatic events.
This is a first step towards an effective risk management system involving risk assessment, risk reduction, and risk transfer to reduce the impact of natural hazards on lives and livelihoods. This process will include all stakeholders with Disaster Risk Reduction mandates and competencies.
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Annex 2: Technical Recommendations to Strengthen HMS Capacities in Support of DRR
Currently HMS does not have adequate technical, human and financial resources to fully support risk assessment and early warning systems. It is critical to upgrade and modernize the national hydrometeorological monitoring and information exchange network and the forecasting system and to provide sustainable organizational resources, human and technical resources and increase the budget available to HMS for efficient meteorological and hydrological disaster risk monitoring, forecasting and warning. The following technical recommendations
Legal framework and institutional arrangements related to the role of NMHS in DRR
1.
There are needs to further improve the legal and institutional DRR framework;
2.
There are urgent needs to re-organize the HMS to better support the substance areas of the organization, and to promote the capability to better implement the obligations and mandates given in the law;
3.
There are urgent needs to upgrade the financing of HMS;
Operational relationships with other agencies
4.
There are needs to improve cooperation with other technical agencies, including the Crisis
Management Centre and the National Protection and Rescue Directorate, through the understanding of their specific needs, the development of specific SOPs for warning and other products and services, as well as feedback mechanisms.
Monitoring and observations networks and data exchange
5.
There are urgent needs to implement a proper calibration and maintenance of sensors in order to meet the WMO standards of measurements;
6.
It is necessary to upgrade and modernize the weather radar network with 2-3 modern radars;
7.
Investments in implementation of two daily upper air soundings would benefit the regional and local weather forecasts.
8.
There are needs to strengthen and modernize the meteorological and hydrological surface networks and to increase the number of automatic stations; especially additional rain gauge and water level automatic stations on upstream catchments,
9.
There are urgent needs to enhance international and regional data exchange.
Forecasting
10.
There is an urgent need to take in use hydrological models;
11.
There is an urgent need to establish a warning system for floods and flash floods;
12.
There is a need to promote NWP modelling through membership in a European NWP consortium;
13.
There is an urgent need to become a member of the SEEVCCC cooperation to promote national bases to adapt to climate change;
14.
There is need to implement analysing, editing and visualization tools;
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Hydrometeorological data management systems
15.
There is an urgent need to initiate a data rescue programme to digitise and quality ensure the historical data
16.
There is a need to develop the technical capacities for data management and to adopt automatic quality control systems of hydrometeorological data. Specifically, the following tools and appropriate training would be required: New version of CLIDATA and training, update of HYDROPRO hydrological data base and training and additional component of the
DEMAS Software for collecting Hydrological Data from automatic stations (DEMAS db)
17.
There is a need to develop an agro-meteorological database, including also phenological data.
Hazard analysis and mapping to support risk assessment
18.
There is a need to define standard methodologies for hazard characterization and mapping, and for hazard risk assessment,
19.
There is a need to develop hazard analysis and mapping based on historical data and climate change projections to support risk assessment
20.
There is a need to strengthen the systematic collection of drought/floods impact information on a state level with standardized procedure and long-lasting approach;
21.
There is a need to strengthen GIS, spatial analysis and remote sensing capacities for hazard analysis and mapping, including GIS software and training, access to an officially agreed DEM
22.
There is a need to strengthen the agro-meteorology capacities of HMS to support drought risk assessment (calculation of drought indices, water balance model, crop coefficients, use of remote sensing information in agro-meteorology)
Information technology and telecommunication issues
23.
There are needs to improve and modernize the communication facilities by iintroducing modern technology for information dissemination and its automatization,
Warning products and services
24.
There are needs to further improve the warning products;
25.
There are urgent needs to promote cooperation with the media;
26.
There are urgent needs to establish a feedback mechanism from end users or stakeholders ensuring that information reached its target audience in a timely manner, suitable format and with requested contents
Climate change analysis
27.
There is a need to develop a climate data management system;
28.
There is a need to develop the technical capacities for climate change projections downscaling to local scales;
29.
There is a need to develop climate change impact studies in cooperation with DRR, industry and other sectors.
Human Resources
30.
There are urgent needs to increase the human capacity with meteorologists, hydrologists,
NWP model experts, ICT experts, data management experts and marketing experts;
31.
There are needs to increase the number of staff with academic MSc and PhD degrees.
32.
There are urgent needs to promote training of the mid-management in leadership, project management, cooperation with industry and participation in EU R&D projects.
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33.
There are needs to establish a systematic training programme for whole staff by adapting the trainings systems in use in some of the advanced EUMETNET NHMSs.
Regional cooperation
34.
There are urgent needs to promote cooperation with SEE NHMSs;
35.
There are urgent needs to enhance data exchange, warning and watch coordination and cross border training activities;
36.
A regional Multi-Hazard Early Warning System composed of inter-operable national Early
Warning Systems should be designed through a regional cooperation process. A comprehensive design and planning document should include institutional and technical aspects of MHEWS, as well as a cost-benefit analysis and a fund-raising strategy;
37.
Modernization and interoperability of the meteorological and hydrological networks should be implemented at the sub-regional level to benefit from economies of scale and financing opportunities. This plan should include automatic on-line stations, a sub-regional radar network as well as a lightning detection network;
38.
To improve their forecasting capacities SEE countries should increase their cooperation with global, regional and specialized Centres producing NWP, by developing their NWP capacities and become members of NWP model consortiums. Linkages between NWP models and hydrological models should also be developed for a better flood forecasting.
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