GoK
14.11.2
SWFDP GUIDANCE PRODUCTS
MEDIUM- RANGE (DAY 3 TO 5)
st
Date Issued: Thursday 31 July, 2014
Validity: 2nd to 4th August 2014 Starting Time: 0900Z
1.
Preamble
These Guidance Products are based on a skilful evaluation of both Regional and Global model
outputs for the domain area, Satellite imagery at the hour of issue and, expert interpretation that
takes into consideration interactions with the local features. For generating the guidance products,
the following criteria are used:
 50mm and above of rainfall in 24 hours is classified as “heavy”;
 Wind speeds in excess of 25Kts are classified as “strong”; while
 Wave heights above 2 m are “significant” with regard to maritime activities.

DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE: High Confidence is“>75%”, Medium Confidence is“5075%” and Low Confidence is“<50%”.
2.
Medium Range (Day 3 to 5) Guidance Products
Day
Parameter
Severe Weather Expected
Day 3:
Saturday 2nd
August, 2014
Rainfall
Scattered heavy rainfall total of more than
50mm/24hrs is expected over North western
Ethiopia.
Winds with more than 25 knots are expected
over eastern Kenya, off eastern coastal
Tanzania and southeastern Ethiopia.
Waves of height more than 2m are expected
over Kenya and Tanzania coast regions.
Medium
Scattered heavy rainfall total of more than
50mm/24hrs is expected over western Ethiopia
and western Kenya.
Winds with more than 25 knots are expected
over eastern Kenya, off eastern coastal
Tanzania and southeastern Ethiopia.
Medium
Winds
Waves
Day 4:
Sunday 3rd
August, 2014
Rainfall
Winds
Degree of
Confidence
High
High
High
Waves
Day 5:
Monday 4th
August, 2014
Rainfall
Winds
Waves
Waves of height more than 2m are expected
over Kenya and Tanzania coast regions.
Scattered heavy rainfall total of more than
50mm/24hrs is expected over western Ethiopia
and western Kenya.
Winds with more than 25 knots are expected
over eastern Kenya, off eastern coastal
Tanzania and southeastern Ethiopia.
No waves of height more than 2m are expected
over Kenya and Tanzania coast regions.
High
Medium
High
High