Climate Brief
VERSION 050728
January 2014
1 Current Headlines

Generally, good October to January rainfall in the eastern part of the region but with irregular temporal
distribution.

Exceptions include Eastern Kenya, Juba regions in Somalia and parts of Tanzania where below average rainfall
has led bad crop performance in those marginal agricultural areas

Large rainfall deficit area observed over western DRC. Deficit is in absolute terms (mm) and requires further
interpretation
2 Details
Vegetation: Impact of low rainfall performance on vegetation is evident in eastern Kenya, Juba (Somalia), Central
Tanzania and parts of Ethiopia. Crop models show maize production affected in marginal areas of south/east Kenya and
southern Somalia. Some pastoral areas affected in Kenya (Wajir, parts of Masai Mara, Taveta), northern Tanzania,
coastal areas in northern Somalia and Eritrea
Temperatures: As predicted, December and early January temperatures for the central sector of the Horn have been
above average, contributing to pastures deterioration in North/Eastern Kenya and Juba regions.
3 Outlook
Near normal seasonal rainfall performance forecast to May across the region except for the western sector, where
normal to above rainfall performance is forecast.
Above normal surface temperatures (+1 to +2 degrees C) are expected to continue over southern Somalia and eastern
Kenya during this period.
Rangeland (pasture and surface water) resources are also likely to be adversely impacted in these areas, especially in
northern & eastern Kenya and southern Somalia.

http://www.disasterriskreduction.net/east-central-africa/fsnwg/current-situation/en/

November Climate presentation to FSNWG
FSNWG Climate Focal Points:
Zachary Atheru
zatheru@icpac.net
Felix Rembold
felix.rembold@jrc.ec.europa.eu
Gideon Galu
ggalu@fews.net