DRAFT PRESS RELEASE by Professor David Crichton, to be issued no later than, say,
24th January, with a suggestion to editors that they make a feature around it with graphics,
photographs etc. and reproductions of press reports of the time.
It should be suggested to the press that they consider publishing on the date of the
anniversary of the 1953 event, namely, Friday, 31st January, 2003.
The Flooding disasters of 1928 and 1953
75 years ago this month, on 6th and 7th January 1928, London suffered severe flooding, due to
the combination of four factors, namely rapid snow melt, heavy rainfall, a storm surge in the
Thames estuary, and a spring tide. 14 people died, but worse was to come.
The 31st of January 2003 marks the 50th anniversary of a storm that devastated much of the
East Coast of England. The storm, which peaked during the hours of darkness, and continued
into the 1st February, killed 304 people in the four counties of Lincolnshire, Norfolk, Suffolk
and Essex. A further 177 people were lost at sea. Between 1,500 and 2,000 people were
drowned in the Netherlands. These are figures only for those who died during the event. It
does not include those who subsequently died prematurely due to the experience.
The 1953 storm was one of Britain’s worst weather disasters in recent times. It was caused by
a deep depression, which by 6pm on that fateful night was as low as 968 millibars. This low
air pressure “sucked up” the level of the surface of the sea into a giant mound of water, which
travelled south along the east coast, driven by gale force winds. By the time it reached King’s
Lynn, for example, the high tide was 2.5 metres higher than normal, and combined with
ferocious winds, a 2 metre high wave was suddenly pushed through the town centre. 65
people died that night on the coast between King’s Lynn and Hunstanton. Overall, the sea
defences were breached in 1,200 places and in some cases the sea reached 2 miles inland.
There was widespread devastation, as 650 square kilometres of land were flooded, and 32,000
people had to be evacuated from their homes. 24,000 houses, 200 major factories, and 200
miles of railway were flooded. Damage is estimated at over £5 billion at current values.
The storm affected the whole of the East Coast of Britain, from Lerwick in Shetland, where
the average windspeed was 75mph, to Deal in Kent. 13,000 people were evacuated from
Canvey Island alone, where nearly 60 people died.
Horrific though these figures are, the death toll could have been a lot worse if it were not for
the heroic actions of military personnel, including US and Canadians, still stationed in
England after the war, plus the availability of war time military landing craft which were used
in rescues. An American airman, Corporal Reis Leming saved 27 people from the freezing
water, even though he was a non-swimmer. He was the first non-British recipient of the
George Medal.
Largely as a result of this storm, the Thames is now one of the best defended estuaries in the
world, with the Thames Barrier, 36 additional tidal barriers and gates, as well as 200 miles of
flood walls which were upgraded in the 1980s. However, many other sea defences in England
built, or rebuilt since the 1953 storm are reaching the end of their design life. Research
published by the Association of British Insurers in 1995 showed that lack of adequate
maintenance meant that 60% of coastal flood defences in the South and East of England
would fail in the type of storm we can expect on average once every 50 years.
That, of course, does not mean that the 1953 storm will happen every 50 years, but it will
happen again sometime, and many more people are living and working in the danger areas
than 50 years ago, especially in areas such as Canary Wharf where 65,000 people now work.
Also we no longer have the benefit of a large standing army and supply of landing craft for
rescue and evacuation. In addition it should be remembered that the 1953 flood could have
much worse if, like the 1928 event, it had coincided with a spring tide, combined with rapid
snowmelt, and record rainfall.
According to a new research report, “Flood Risk and Insurance in England & Wales: are
there lessons to be learned from Scotland?”, if the 1953 storm was repeated now, it could
result in insured losses of over £20 billion. (This figure does not include London, on the
assumption that it is adequately protected by flood defences. However this protection will be
eroded by sea level rise due to climate change.)
While the insurance and reinsurance industry does have the capacity to pay such claims, there
would no doubt be pressure to subsequently increase premiums for customers in flood hazard
areas even further, especially now that the insurance industry’s guarantee of availability of
flood insurance has expired. (It expired at the end of 2002 because of the inadequacy of new
government planning controls on developments in flood hazard areas, and because of
inadequate government spending on flood defences.)
The report, by Professor David Crichton, of the Benfield Greig Hazard Research Centre, at
University College London, provides a comprehensive guide to the problems Britain faces in
dealing with flooding generally, and offers a whole range of solutions. These include the
“Crichton Formula” which would enable flood insurance to become more readily available
and affordable without increased burdens on taxpayers for flood defences.
The report is published by the Benfield Greig Hazard Research Centre, and is available for
free downloading from their web site (www.bghrc.com )
Summary of statistics for the 1953 storm
480 deaths (accounts vary, the number might be slightly more or less)
1,200 breaches of sea defences
650 square kilometres of land flooded
32,000 people evacuated
£5 billion damage (at current values)
24,000 houses, 200 major factories, and 200 miles of railway were flooded.
Notes for editors follow.
Notes for editors
The author of the report mentioned above is Professor David Crichton who is based in
Scotland and can be contacted as follows:
Tel.: 01828 686493, Fax/ answering machine: 01828 686961,
Mobile: 0794 123 9 123, Email: David@Crichton.sol.co.uk
Possible graphic or table?
(Please attribute the source for the following figures as shown below.)
Death toll from the 1953 event
(Conservative estimates)
Lincolnshire
40
Norfolk
100
Suffolk
44
Essex
120
Total
304
Deaths at sea
Loss of the “Princess Victoria” (Irish Sea ferry)
130
Loss of fishermen from the “Michael Griffiths”,
“Guava” and other trawlers
45
Loss of lifeboatmen
2
Total
177
Source of information on UK deaths: Kelman, I, 2002. CURBE Fact Sheet 3:
UK Deaths from the 1953 Storm Surge (available from:
http://www.arct.cam.ac.uk/curbe/CURBEFactSheet3UK1953Deaths.doc )
For a rather more “sensational” approach, see the website for the new Richard Doyle book at:
http://www.floodlondon.com