Title: A Global Flood Risk Initiative: Climate Informed Dynamic Risk
Measures – Upmanu Lall
Abstract: Mega-floods, that result from persistent precipitation over multiple
days and over large regions, are often related to tropical moisture exports
connected to very specific atmospheric circulation patterns. Often, multiple
floods in the same locations across years, and across multiple locations
in the same season, correspond to such identifiable patterns. These
observations provide an opportunity to explore whether or not such
mechanisms are predictable or if they provide a pathway for flood risk
estimation from selected attributes identified from dynamical models of
ocean-atmosphere-land hydrology. Prospects and early analyses in this
direction are reviewed, and formalized into a perspective towards an end
to end dynamic flood risk modeling initiative that connects potential
exposure, losses, and infrastructure into a global tool for hazard analysis
and mitigation.