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STUDY OUTLINE FOR CHAPTER 12
DEMAND PLANNING: FORECASTING AND DEMAND MANAGEMENT
1. Discuss how demand forecasting excellence gives Longaberger an advantage:
2. Define:
Demand planning
Demand forecasting
Demand management
3. Discuss the role that demand planning plays in operations management:
4. Identify the elements of demand planning:
5. Discuss planning activities in the following time horizons:
Long-Term/Strategic
Intermediate Term
Short Term/Operational
6. Define the components of demand:
Stable Pattern
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Seasonality and Cycles
Trends
Shift or Step Change
Autocorrelation
Forecast Error
7. Identify the five steps that can help managers design a forecasting process:
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
8. The forecasting process should account for the following users’ characteristics and needs:
1)
2)
3)
4)
9. Describe judgment-based forecasting:
10. Define the following:
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Grassroots forecasting
Executive judgment
Historical analogy
Marketing research
Delphi method
11. Identify the three methods used to transform numerical data into forecasts by statistical
model-based forecasting:
1)
2)
3)
12. Define the following:
Time Series Analysis Models
Naïve Model
Moving Average
Simple Exponential Smoothing
Moving Average Forecasting Model
Weighted Moving Average
Exponential Smoothing
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Smoothing Coefficient
Forecast Error
Regression Analysis
Seasonal Index
13. Describe exponential smoothing forecasting with trend effects:
14. Discuss the process for determining trend factors:
15. Sketch a linear trend:
16. Discuss why it is first important to graph the data when estimating a trend:
17. Briefly discuss the purpose of simple linear regression in a time series:
18. Discuss why forecasts must be adjusted for seasonality:
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19. Compare judgment-based forecasting and statistical model-based forecasting:
20. Compare causal models and simulation models:
21. Define the following:
Simulation models
Focused forecasting
Forecast accuracy
Forecast bias
Mean absolute deviation (MAD)
Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)
Mean squared error (MSE)
Root mean squared error (RMSE)
Tracking signal
22. Briefly describe the process of assessing the performance of the forecasting process:
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23. Differentiate between forecast accuracy and forecast bias:
24. Discuss the importance of determining tracking forecast error acceptability:
25. Describe the process of adaptive forecasting:
26. Briefly discuss the importance of studying past patterns of forecast errors:
27. Identify the three rules that give an indication of how situational characteristics tend to affect
forecast accuracy:
1)
2)
3)
28. Briefly explain demand management:
29. Identify the four fluctuations that cause operational inefficiencies across the supply chain:
1)
2)
3)
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4)
30. Discuss the three basic tactics managers use to manage demand:
1)
2)
3)
31. Briefly discuss ways to improve the constraints on demand planning:
32. Discuss ways to improve information accuracy and timeliness:
33. Discuss ways to reduce lead times:
34. Identify advantages of redesigning a product to improve demand planning:
35. Define postponable products:
36. Discuss the need to collaborate and share information across stages of the supply chain:
37. Define Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment:
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38. Identify the four collaborative activities in CPFR:
1)
2)
3)
4)