North Carolina Sea Level Rise Assessment Update: Process and Product
By
Margery F. Overton, Ph.D., Chair, North Carolina Science Panel
Elizabeth J. Sciaudone, Ph.D., P.E., Member, North Carolina Science Panel
James Houston, Expert Reviewer, Sea Level Rise Assessment Update Report
This presentation will review the Coastal Resource Commission’s charge to the Science Panel, discuss
the process including peer review, and present the results of the Sea Level Rise Assessment Report.
In 2010, a panel of scientists and engineers developed the first sea level rise assessment for the North
Carolina coast. This assessment included projected sea level in the year 2100, and was not well received
by local governments and community planners. The first assessment included plans to update every five
years as the science evolved. At the outset of the update process, the Coastal Resources Commission
Chair requested that the panel limit this projection to a 30-year planning horizon. Additionally, the
update report was reviewed by a team consisting of Dr. Jim Houston and the late Dr. Robert Dean, who
contributed valuable feedback to the Science Panel and improved the results of the process. The 2015
update report has recently been completed and is open for public comment. Initial results of public
meetings have indicated a much more positive reception of the update report.
This 2015 update is different from the first report in a number of significant ways:
 Consideration of a 30-year time frame for sea level rise projections as requested by the
CRC.
 Inclusion of scenario based global sea level rise predictions from the most recent
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Report (AR5).
 Emphasis on the spatial variation of relative sea level rise rates as evidenced by the
analysis of data collected by NOAA tide gauges along the North Carolina coast.
 Additional discussion of the expected spatial variability in relative sea level rise rates
along the North Carolina coast due to geologic factors.
 Review of recent research indicating that ocean dynamics effects may be a significant
source of spatial variability in existing relative sea level rise rates along the North
Carolina coast.
 Discussion of recent research into the impacts of sea level rise on the frequency of
relatively minor coastal flooding not necessarily associated with storms (nuisance
flooding).
 Examination of dredging effects on tide range and sea level signal.
 Development of a range of predictions at each of the long-term tide gauges along the
North Carolina coast based on a combination of local vertical land motion information
and the IPCC scenarios.