WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
_________________________
TCM-8/Doc. 3.2
(23.X.2015)
___________
EIGHTH TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCs/TCWCs
TECHNICAL COORDINATION MEETING
ITEM 3.2
MIAMI, FLORIDA, USA
2 TO 6 NOVEMBER 2015
ENGLISH ONLY
RECOMMENDATIONS of IWTC-VIII and IWTCLP-III to OPERATIONAL CENTRES
(Submitted by the Secretariat)
Summary and Purpose of Document
This document focuses on the recommendations of IWTC-VIII and the
IWTCLP-III related to operational centres.
ACTION PROPOSED
The meeting is invited to discuss recommendations of IWTC-VIII and IWTCLP-III
specifically on:

Implications of the next generation of geostationary meteorological satellite on tropical
cyclone forecast and warning strategy;

Forecasting issues on uncertainty, TC genesis, TC wind radii etc.
__________
TCM-8/Doc. 3.2, APPENDIX
IWTC-VIII and IWTCLP-III Recommendations Related to Operation Centres
1.
That WMO facilitate the transition of new, successfully – tested Tropical Cyclone (TC)
techniques and algorithms from researchers/developers to operational environments (especially
developing countries). For example, innovative satellite – based methods that are showing promise
for TC analysis need to be integrated into local TC analysis/forecast offices for optimal
employment as guidance in the TC forecast process. WMO to assist identify resources for
providing this transition and subsequent training.
2.
That Members operating meteorological satellites provide adequate technical guidance and
training to operational TC centers, particularly in developing countries, for the smooth transition to
the next generation of geostationary meteorological satellites. IWTC also recommends that the TC
research community, in cooperation with the operational community, explores new techniques to
utilize these satellite data for improving operational TC analysis and forecasts.
3.
That WMO facilitate the standardization of the TC wind radii format so that RSMCs can
create best track records including metadata that will be used to verify statistical and NWP
guidance products.
4.
In recognition of the theme of the IWTC-VIII, “Quantifying and Communicating Forecast
Uncertainty”:
PART A: The IWTC recommends that research and development of forecast guidance
products be undertaken on all aspects of TCs, especially leading up to and after landfall.
These products should include a specification of forecast uncertainty using e.g.,
probabilistic or ensemble approaches. Furthermore, RSMCs/TCWCs should be
encouraged to provide TC forecast uncertainty as part of their TC warnings. To facilitate
this, successfully-researched guidance products to specify TC forecast uncertainty should
be widely shared with operational TC entities.
and
PART B: The IWTC also recommends that the TC Operational Community should engage
with social scientists to develop tools and provide education and training for meaningful
communication of risk to end users based on:
1) warnings; and
2) the forecast uncertainty associated with those warnings. This will help ensure that
appropriate community actions are taken in response to those TC warnings.
__________