FINAL DRAFT
SECTOR GAP ANALYSIS OF THE HOUSING EARLY RECOVERY WORKING GROUP
1. Early Recovery Needs and Challenges
Case load
In 65 districts in 6 provinces 1.7 million houses were damaged, of which almost 50% were completely destroyed. The
Housing Sector case load focuses on 805,694 destroyed houses (DH), mainly in the 4 provinces of KPK, Balochistan,
Sindh and Punjab (updated PDMA data, reduced from DNA: 913,307 DH; it is likely the number of destroyed houses
in Balochistan may increase).
As some houses were occupied by several households (HH), this destruction has affected some 9 million people. The
loss is difficult to quantify, as most of the rural houses have been constructed by the people using traditional methods.
In the Damage and Need Assessment Report- DNA (WB 2010), the costs for three reconstruction options vary from
1,483 million to 1,690 million to 2,206 million USD.
The early recovery need has been calculated taking into consideration only the completely destroyed houses. The
minimum assistance provision will be of one room shelter for each destroyed house.
Urgent Challenges
1. The Early Recovery shelter should act as a pull-factor to all IDPs affected by the flood, living in temporary
conditions such as camps and secondary settlements, to return to their places of origin.
2. The upcoming season, with very high temperatures in many areas, can hinder the construction process and the
monsoon rains can cause further destruction and disrupt reconstruction activities.
3. To ensure that the commitments, made by various partners, are actualized, that parity among the provinces in
terms of commitment of the ORS is reached, and that not-registered activities also follow the HERWG policy.
4. To promote technical assistance to enable “to build back better”. Local resources to rebuild are limited and
knowledge how to rebuild better against the risks of floods and earthquakes is not widely disseminated. Qualified
engineering and skilled local labor are scare. Construction material is available at the moment, but some prices
have already risen considerably.
5. Not all displaced population will be able to return to their point of origin and many are left landless.
6. One Room Shelter (ORS, the current response) might not always be the most adequate solution, e.g. in urban
areas, where multi-storey buildings were destroyed and land for ORS is not sufficiently available.
2. Updated Early Recovery Response
Province
Destroyed
houses (DH)
AJK
1,462
Gilgit Baltistan 1,415
Balochistan
37,798
KPK
116,866
Punjab
301,211
Sindh
346,942
Total
805,694
Estimated
Self Recovery
0
0
0
23,373
45,182
20,817
89,372
Committed
Transitional S.
200
1,752
20,023
27,814
7,078
12,338
69,205
Committed
One Room S.
1,228
920
24,222
21,861
59,042
66,491
173,764
Estimated
not registered
0
0
0
4,372
8,856
9,974
23,202
Total Updated
ER Response
1,428
2,672
44,245
77,420
120,158
109,620
355,543
Coverage
% of DH
98%
189%
117%
66%
40%
32%
44%
Self recovery, roughly estimated to cover 11% of the destroyed houses, does not require financial assistance as the
houses are reconstructed by families with some resources.
Updated per end March, some 200 registered agencies are committed to construct 69,025 Transitional Shelters, of
which 25,975 (37.5%) are completed; and 173,6641 One Room Shelters, of which 14,575 (8.2%) have been
completed. The Shelter & NFI Cluster did not have the value of the assistance provided, including the
1
From the figure of 178,213 ORS (as indicated in the Shelter Cluster database), 4,432 ORS listed in KPK have been deducted,
as they are not confirmed in the updated information provided by a HERWG task force to PDMA on 31.03. 11.
commitments. An additional estimated 23,200 ORS (13% of the registered commitments) can be added for support
provided by traditional or bilateral agencies not yet registered. It is difficult to estimate the commitments value, as
the costs per unit vary widely between agencies and the costs have not been compiled yet2.
In Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) and Gilgit-Baltistan, the registered commitments (TS + ORS) cover 100% of
the case load. Therefore these two provinces are not included in the below calculation of the Strategic Early
Recovery Gap. For Balochistan, the strategic gap can not yet be calculated, as the available data of destroyed
houses may increase.
In KPK the total of the registered committed (Transitional Shelters and ORS) response along with the notregistered assistance and the estimated self-recovery covers 46% of the caseload, in Punjab 38% and in Sindh
28%.
3. Strategic Gap (focusing on KPK, Punjab and Sindh)3
Province
Destroyed
houses
Registered TS
and ORS
(completed
or committed)
Gap One Room
Shelters
(DH –self-recovery
- registered and unregistered response)
Unit ORS cost
deducted benefic.
participation, incl.
implementation
Estimated cost USD
incl. construction,
DRR, Implementation
(refer to attached table)
In % of
Total Gap
KPK
Punjab
Sind
3 provinces
116,866
301,211
346,942
765,019
49,675
66,120
78,829
194,624
39,446
181,053
237,323
457,821
$982
$798
$700
$763
$ 38,729,860
$144,436,372
$166,024,333
$349,190,565
11,09%
41,36%
47,55%
100.00%
The Strategic Gap in the Housing Sector is calculated in the attached table, on base of the following considerations:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
The Strategic gap focuses only on response to completely destroyed houses on base of updated figures in Shelter
Database, provided by PDMA.
Deducted: self-recovery, estimated 11% of the case load, which does not need financial assistance.
Deducted: Transitional Shelters, constructed or in pipeline, even if they do not comply with DRR.
Deducted: Registered committed ORS (constructed or in pipeline), plus estimated 13% not-registered ORS.
These three ongoing activities add to 355,543 units that cover 44% of the overall case load.
On base of standard design options, the costs of materials and labor – not taking account of beneficiary
participation - for the required 457,821 ORS sum up to approx. 350 million USD.
Estimated 25% of the ORS gap will be covered by ORS of the same construction type (improved mud ORS),
whilst 75% could be replaced by other construction methods (e.g. mud by brick constructions).
Costs shall be reduced through beneficiary participation wherever possible, but not for extremely vulnerable.
In case of recovery by the same type of construction, the cost reduction through participation is estimated as
approx. 15%. In case of recovery by other construction types (e.g from mud to bricks), a beneficiary
participation up to 50% is estimated.
A likely price hike (estimated as 35%) has to be included in the calculation of the overall construction costs.
To ensure that the ORS, which shall be resistant to future risks, are implemented by technical qualified agencies
and the funds are well administered, 19% implementation costs are added.
The response can be mainly provided through structured, assisted projects, but other forms of response are not
excluded.
Not included in the present gap costing, Technical guidance for DRR-compliance is promoted in resources
centers
through
awareness
rising
and
training
(separate
table
for
referential
cost).
2
Cost assumptions on registered response in six provinces:
Transitional Shelters: 69,000 units * estimated $550 (plus 20% Impl.costs) = 45.5 million USD.
One Room Shelters: 173,000 registered units * estimated $500 (plus 20% Impl.costs) = 103.8 million USD.
TS + ORS registered response sums up to 149.3 million USD in all six affected provinces.
3
The registered commitments in Balochistan cover the case-load according to the available data, but the actual indicated number of destroyed
houses might rise significantly on base of further assessments.
GAP - Priorities by 31 December 2010
Assuming that the overall case-load of totally destroyed houses is 805,000 units, the destroyed houses
in flood plains were estimated to be 275,000 units and in flood & earthquake prone areas were 125,000
units, therefore the estimated percentage of DH in priority areas is 50% of the entire gap. The current
ER response has been calculated against the overall case-load, therefore the existing coverage would
not probably address the need of these priority areas.
Priorities
% of total gap
Number of ORS
Estimated amount
Destroyed houses in flood plains and
earthquake + flood affected areas
50%
228,910
$ 174,595,282
4. Early Recovery Response Strategy
The HERWG, in coordination with NDMA and the PDMAs, promotes to address the strategic gap as follows:
-
Early Recovery construction is planned till December 31, 2011. Priority is to shelter the remaining IDPs in
the upcoming monsoon season and to support them to return to their place of origin.
-
In the Early Recovery phase only completely destroyed (CD) houses are being targeted to provide support to
people without permanent shelter.
-
Minimum Early Recovery response is a One Room Shelter against one destroyed house (damages more than
60% of the house), whilst acknowledging that in many areas one destroyed house accommodated more than
one household.
-
A household (till 8 persons) with a destroyed house shall be supported with an approx. 20m 2 large One
Room Shelter as a first Early Recovery core room, which will be later extended towards a house with the
support of Watan cards.
-
The Transitional Shelters that do not comply with DRR, shall not be promoted or supported.
-
Early Recovery shall be cost efficient by applying well know construction methods and the use of local
materials, taking account their social and environmental impact. To promote ownership and to lower costs,
beneficiaries shall participate according to their capacity. All material and labor shall be provided to
extremely vulnerable households who do not have the capacity to participate.
-
ORS and site preparation shall comply with DRR requirements of location (mainly flood, seismic zone),
promoted through awareness building, knowledge sharing, technical guidance and trainings.
-
In coordination with WASH, or through direct implementation, adequate services for water and sanitation
shall be included.
-
Preliminary community works like debris removal, salvation of material and rehabilitation of sites shall be
coordinated with the Community Infrastructure ERWG.
-
Housing implementation agencies shall collaborate with the authorities and coordinate with the District
Focal Points, proactively coordinate with NDMA, PDMAs and the donors, through the Housing Early
Recovery Working Group.
-
In order to complete the additional 297,584 units additional resources need to be ensure for implementation
capacity, human resources (engineering staff and skilled and unskilled labor) and local material.
Additional: Technical Assistance on District Level to sensitize, promote and supervise to build back better