SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL
Table S1. Overlap of area forecast to be suitable for occupation or dominance by more than one species, as a
percent of the total forested area for Sonneratia alba (Sa), Rhizophora stylosa (Rs) and Ceriops tagal (Ct), for
Darwin Harbour, northern Australia. Bold font and * indicates values where more than 10% overlap. s.l.r.: sea
level rise.
Current sea level
%
0.5 m s.l.r. %
1 m s.l.r. %
Sa + Rs
3.09
4.02
4.43
Sa + Ct
2.51
2.63
2.36
Rs + Ct
9.88
12.35*
11.31*
Sa + Rs + Ct
0.48
0.59
0.59
Sa + Rs
2.79
3.25
3.28
Sa + Ct
0.77
0.84
0.85
Rs + Ct
7.31
7.67
5.79
Sa + Rs + Ct
0.14
0.16
0.16
Species
Dominant
Figure S1. Map of the study area showing the extent of the mangrove forest in Darwin Harbor, northern
Australia, and location of sites surveyed. Inset map of Australia indicates the location of Darwin Harbor.
Dominant
contrib. - 6.2 %
1.0
1.0
Species
contrib. - 4.3 %
fitted response
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.0
0.0
contrib. - 6.2 %
1
20
30
5
wet
(c)
10
contrib. - 12.9 %
15
fitted response
0.6
0.4
0.6
30
R.I. 12.9%
0.2
0.2
0.4
25
wet
0.8
0.8
20
(d)
R.I. 6.2%
0.8
0.0
0.0
0.2
contrib. - 12.8 %
15
1
20
25
wet
(e)
contrib. - 18.8 %
15
fitted response
0.6
0.4
30
0.2
0.2
0.4
25
R.I. 18.8%
0.8
0.8
20
wet
Ceriops tagal
0.6
0.0
0.0
0.2
5
10
(f)
R.I. 12.8%
0.8
0
5
30
1.0
10
0.6
5
1.0
0
0.4
fitted response
25
1.0
15
0.6
10
0.4
5
1.0
0
Rhizophora stylosa
Probability of species occurrence or dominance
Sonneratia alba
0.6
0.2
fitted response
R.I. 6.2%
0.8
0.8
0.8
fitted response
(b)
R.I. 4.3%
0.6
(a)
0.4
1
5
10
10
15
15
20
wet
20
25
25
Water salinity (ppt)
30
30
5
5
10
10
15
15
20
wet
20
25
25
30
30
Water salinity (ppt)
Figure S2. Partial plots showing the probability of species occurrence (left column) or dominance (right
column) of Sonneratia alba (a, b), Rhizophora stylosa (c, d) and Ceriops tagal (e, f) across a gradient in water
salinity, for Darwin Harbor, northern Australia. Mean (black line) and 95% confidence (grey lines) for 1000
bootstrapped samples. R.I. relative variable importance shown in top right corner of each panel.
Species
Dominant
contrib. - 13.9 %
1.0
1.0
contrib. - 6.4 %
1
(a)
0.8
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.2
8
6
0
slope
(c)
4
6
8
slope
R.I. 7.1%
0.8
0.8
contrib. - 7.1 %
(d)
R.I. 14.6%
0.6
fitted response
0.8
0.4
0.6
0.2
0.4
0.2
fitted response
2
1.0
4
0.6
1.0
1
contrib. - 14.6 %
0.4
2
0
Rhizophora stylosa
Probability of species occurrence or dominance
0.6
0.6
fitted response
R.I. 13.9%
0.6
0
R.I. 6.4%
Sonneratia alba
fitted response
0.8
0.4
0.8
(b)
0.0
0.0
0.2
4
6
0
8
slope
(e)
contrib. - 6.4 %
4
R.I. 6.4%
0.8
0.8
fitted response
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.4
8
Ceriops tagal
0.6
6
slope
(f)
R.I. 16.8%
0.8
fitted response
2
1.0
1
contrib. - 16.8 %
0.6
2
0.4
0
1.0
0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0
0
2
4
0
2
4slope
6
8
6
8
Slope (degrees)
0
0
2
2
4
4slope
6
8
6
8
Slope (degrees)
Figure S3. Partial plots showing the probability of species occurrence (left column) or dominance (right
column) of Sonneratia alba (a, b), Rhizophora stylosa (c, d) and Ceriops tagal (e, f) across a gradient in slope,
for Darwin Harbor, northern Australia. Mean (black line) and 95% confidence (grey lines) for 1000
bootstrapped samples. R.I. relative variable importance shown in top right corner of each panel.
Pro
ba
bili
ty
of
S.
alb
a1
m
s.l.r
.
Pr
ob
abi
lity
of
S.
alb
a1
m
s.l.
r.
Pr
ob
ab
ilit
y
of
R.
sty
los
a
1
Pr
m
ob
s.l.
abi
r.
lity
of
R.
sty
los
a1
m
s.l.
r.
Figure S4. Heat map (or two-dimensional histogram) showing invasion and competition, in left panels (a and
c), for Sonnerati alba invading Rhizophora stylosa ; and in right panels (b and d), for R. stylosa invading
Ceriops tagal after a sea level rise (s.l.r.) of 1 m, for species occupancy and dominance, in Darwin Harbor,
northern Australia. The probability of occurrence of the invaded organism at current sea levels on the x-axis is
plotted against the probability of the invading organism after a 1 m sea level rise on the y-axis, with axes
divided into 50 equal bins. Point colors indicate the frequency of combinations of predicted occupancy in each
bin. In the lower panel, Eoverlap is a maximum of 1 in the top right of the graph and decreases toward the lower
and left portions. Region (i) indicates invasion with low competition, as there is a high probability of the
invading species and low probability of the invaded species, hence intermediate Eoverlap; (ii) indicates invasion
with high competition, as there is a high probability of both the invaded and invading species, hence maximum
Eoverlap; regions (ii) and (iv) indicate no invasion, as there is a low probability of the invading species, yet Eoverlap
is greater in region (iv).