Research and Development Centre 19
Perspectives on Curricula
in Teacher Education
Scenarios for
the future of
Teacher Education
in Europe
DRAFT-version
ATEE/RDC 19
Amsterdam, August 2001
RDC 19
Scenarios for the future of Teacher Education in Europe
Introduction
The Research and Development Centre 19 of the Association of Teacher Education in Europe (ATEE)
is focussing itself on developments and issues in curricula for teacher education. The participation of
teacher educators form different countries in Europe makes it possible to compare changes and
trends throughout Europe.
It is useful to make the observations of the RDC public for a broader audience.
However, since the members of the RDC have to combine their ATEE-activities with very active
involvement in teacher education in their own countries, the amount of time to spend on detailed
analyses and publications is limited and given the speed of change in teacher education in the
different countries, there is the risk that the final publication of a report takes so much time, that the
observations are outdated before they are published.
For this reason, this publication does not give an explicit and detailed analysis of the changes in each
country, but takes these changes implicitly into account by describing four possible scenarios for the
future of teacher education.
The publication is the result of discussions that took place in Amsterdam (February 2000), Barcelona
(September 2000) and London (March 2000).
Firstly the paper discusses the usefulness of scenario thinking for (teacher) education. Secondly the
approach for drawing the scenarios that is used by the RDC is explained. This approach resulted in
four different scenarios as the quadrants along two different axes. In the next paragraph the different
axes of the resulting scenario matrix are explained.
In the fourth paragraph the four resulting scenarios are brought to life by short scenes.
Finally the usefulness of these scenarios and the method of scenario building will be discussed.
This publication is a first draft putting together the results of four different subgroups. This has led to a
document that is still lacking in coherence and has not on all parts the same level of elaboration.
However, to support a round table discussion during the 2001 ATEE conference in Stockholm, we
believe that this draft version can be useful.
Marco Snoek
Chair of RDC 19
M.Snoek@efa.nl
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1
The use of scenarios
Both national governments, European institutions such as OECD and international organisations like
UNESCO are issuing papers on the future of education. There seems to be a general consensus on
the idea that education needs dramatic changes to meet the demands of the near future. Changes in
society ask for radical new approaches in education if education want to pay it role in the development
of people and therefore in the reduction of poverty, exclusion, ignorance, oppression and war.
These changes in society concern globalisation, knowledge acceleration and the information society,
growing cultural diversity, etc. Given these changes, education of today cannot meet the demands of
tomorrow.
International and European publications try to name the ingredients for the education of tomorrow (e.g.
UNESCO 1996, OECD 2001a). However, often the translation of these international publications and
observations into national or institutional policies is limited. Rather often, on a national and institutional
level educational policies and innovations are dealing with experienced problems within the existing
educational infrastructure. Not the needs of tomorrow and the changes in society, but the
organisational problems in our schools define the educational developments.
So more or less, educational changes are a result of and an answer to the education of today (or
worse, yesterday). If that is the case, a fundamental rethinking of the goals of education is missing. In
that way there is the risk that education will always be lacking behind the needs of society. ‘The
curriculum decisions necessarily have to project in the future, if we want active, intervening and
participating citizens in the design of future societies’ (Sousa, 1998).
To avoid this pitfall, another perspective is needed. Maybe one of the most important competences for
teachers, teacher educators and educational policymakers is to be future oriented and to be sensible
to changes in society.
Since most of the curriculum reforms are based on the problems that exist today, many changes are
rather ad-hoc. We believe that there is a lack of ‘futurology’ within teacher education policies. Changes
within curricula must have a firm basis in expected and desired developments in the future. The
leading question must be: What changes in society will influence (teacher) education and, based on
these social developments, how could or should the curriculum for teacher education look like in
2010? With such a picture, policy makers and curriculum developers have an instrument, a compass
to set course in the coming years.
However, education will not improve if it is based on some obscure kind of future telling. Sensitivity for
trends and changes does not automatically imply the skill to differentiate between important or minor
changes. Trends are mostly non-linear and looking into the future implies a lot of uncertainty. So
sitting down and thinking about the future is not enough. Trends must be interpreted, probabilities of
changes must be taken into account, and connections with other trends are necessary. So a
methodology is needed. One of these methodologies is ‘scenario planning’. Unlike traditional
forecasting or market research, scenarios present alternative images instead of extrapolating current
trends from the present. Scenarios are alternative environments in which today’s decisions may be
played out. They are not predictions.
In this methodology that is used in a large scale by large organisations and industries in for example
the United States (e.g. by the Global Business Network (GBN, 1998)), the uncertainty of the future is
taken into account by describing different possible futures. The realisation of each of these futures is
dependent on several factors. By describing the scenarios, these factors can be identified and thus
giving clues on how to influence these factors.
So, in this way scenarios can give guidance to decision makers on which decisions are in line with
certain desired scenarios and which are not. In this way, educators do not have to wait passively to
see what changes are taking place, but they can me much more actively involved in designing the
future they think desirable.
The making and use of scenarios can be useful in several ways:
 It is a way to stimulate the sensitivity for trends and developments and the needs in the near
future.
 It stimulates the imagination of people involved in education.
 It makes people aware of the important factors influencing (teacher) education.
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Scenarios for the future of Teacher Education in Europe


It can give guidance by decisions that have to be taken.
It gives an opportunity to be pro-active and to take an active part in the realisation of a desired
scenario.
Good scenario planning is about challenging the maps that people use in setting their courses and
routes, and forcing people to ask themselves difficult and often painful questions about how the future
might be different from the recent past.
In the last few years several scenarios have been developed in the field of education. The Global
Business Network published four inspiring scenarios for the future of public education (GBN, 1995).
The scenario entitled Orthodoxy represents a highly centralized, conservative picture of education. By
contrast, Orthodoxies depicts education in a world of many small, relatively autonomous communities.
Wired for Learning describes a highly privatized, high technology education environment. Finally, The
Learning Society describes a relatively optimistic education scenario in a healthy economy.
This year the OECD will publish a book as a result of the ´Schooling for tomorrow´-project, where six
scenarios are presented, which describe the possible futures for tomorrows schools (OECD, 2001b).
In OECD´s Educational Policy Analysis 2001 these scenarios are summarized (OECD 2001a).
There are hardly any scenarios studies that focus on teacher education. However, the scenarios on
education and schools in general can be related to teacher education. E.g. the OECD scenarios have
their parallels and are recognizable for teacher education (Snoek, Wielenga, 2001):
The first scenario stipulating the continuation of bureaucratic institutionalised systems, resisting radical
change, is recognizable in the way in which:
 institutions fail to solve financial problems, threatening the existence of teacher education in The
Netherlands,
 they fail to create national solutions to shared problems
 many teacher educators are resisting the implementation of new approaches.
The second scenario which describes a future, in which market approaches to education are extended
much further than today, can be recognized in the way in which commercial institutions are given
access to the areas of both pre- and in-service teacher education, competing with the traditional, but
not always efficient, institutions for higher education.
The third scenario, describing a future where schools have developed powerful social links and a
community leadership function, is parallel with the strong bonds and educational partnerships that
institutes for teacher education are creating with schools in their area.
In the fourth scenario schools become learning organisations with strong knowledge focus and
qualified and motivated teachers. Translated to teacher education this scenario is visible in the
rethinking of the role of teacher education, positioning itself as an expertise and assessmentcentre for
professional development of teachers.
In the fifth scenario, the role of the school minimizes through the widespread establishment of
nonformal learning networks. This might be the future for teacher education too, when schools
organize the professional development of their staff within their own institutions, using organized
networks for nonformal learning and professional development between colleagues in different
schools.
The last scenario is a pessimistic one: an exodus of teachers, unresponsive to the clumsy attempts to
raise the status of the teaching profession, creates a ´meltdown´ of school systems. Even this very
pessimistic one has its parallels in teacher education: the low status of both the teaching profession
and teacher education leads to an ongoing decrease of the number of students opting for teacher
education and to the loss of confidence of society in the usefulness of institutes for teacher education,
and to a declining willingness to invest in this part of higher education.
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2
The making of the scenarios
To develop scenarios for teacher education the RDC took four steps. These steps were taken during
three meetings: February 2000 (Amsterdam), September 2000 (Barcelona) and March 2001 (London).
Step 1 was to identify the most important fields of change that influence teacher education in the near
future. As a context, we agreed to focus on the future of teacher education in Europe, more or less
using a timescale of 10 to 20 years. We cannot know beforehand what the future will hold. But we can
see in the present a number of (sometimes contradictory) trends which, moving on their present
course, will change the shape of teacher education over the next ten to twenty years. We call these
trends fields of changes. To identify the fields of change, we realised that changes in teacher
education will in a large part result from changes in education in general which will be a result from
changes in society. So, identifying fields of change asked for a broad perspective on dilemmas and
trends in society.
After step 1, where each participant tried to list uncertainties, trends, etc. for him/herself, we tried to
make a selection of the most important fields of change during step 2. This was done by exchanging
the individual lists and analysing the importance of the different fields of change. For each change or
dilemma mentioned two questions had to be answered:
1. How large is the impact on teacher education?
2. How large is de unpredictability of the change?
This analysis made it possible to group the listed changes and trends:
1. Changes or trends with small impact on teacher education were not relevant (e.g.
environmental changes) for the scenarios to be developed.
2. Changes or trends with a large probability or predictability were important elements in each
scenario, but could not be used to differentiate between the different scenarios: these trends
had to be taking into account in each scenario (e.g. the rise of ICT).
3. Changes or trends with a large impact on teacher education and with a large unpredictability
were the key-elements for the differentiation between the different scenarios.
Unpredictability
1
Keydilemmas
0.8
0.6
0.4
Trends
0.2
0
0
10
20
30
40
50 60
70
80
90 100
Impact
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In step 3, we used the fields of change in the third group to identify the scenarios we had to develop.
In the discussions we generalized the items and brought them down to two most important dilemmas.
Each of these topics actually represented a continuum with two possible extremes. These two
dilemmas could be represented as the two dimensions in a two-dimensional matrix.
As the x-axis we selected the continuum between pragmatism and idealism, indicating the driving
force in society concerning the values that drive society.
As the y-axis the continuum between individualism and social coherence was selected indicating the
driving force in society concerning the importance of the group or the individual. (See paragraph 3 for
more explanation on these dimensions).
In this way, we had identified four different scenarios as the quadrants of the two-dimensional matrix.
Individualism
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Idealism
Pragmatism
Scenario 3
Scenario 4
Social coherence
The final step was to bring each scenario to life. In step 4 we made a subgroup around each scenario
with the task to make a description of the scenario. This description should be consistent, plausible,
challenging and recognizable. To differentiate between the scenarios, each of the scenarios is
positioned on the extremes. At the same time, each of the scenarios had to take into account the
rather predictable trends that influence each of the scenarios. In step 3 we had identified the following
trends:
General trends for all scenarios







Explosive upcoming of ICT
Multiculturalisation
Constant change
Globalisation
English as a dominant language
Multilingualism
Environmental changes
To make the scenarios comparable, a format for each scenario-description was made:
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1
2
Contents
Introduction
Society
3
4
The learning process
The centers for learning
5
The educators
6
The education of educators
7
8
9
10
11
The educators of educators
The scenario coming alive
Contemporary indicators for this scenario
Risks
Opportunities
Topics to be discussed
Underlying principles and values, keywords
Role of the family, technology, diversity, steeringprinciples
Characteristics, main aims
Characteristics of the role, function, goals,
educational system, curriculum, type of centers,
management/steering, buildings
Characteristics of the status, professionalism &
expertise, professional development, type of
educators
(Academic) status, will there be a institute for TE?
Role of the learning centers in educating their
educators? (see also 4)
See also 5
A day/a week in the life of …
To make the scenarios challenging and recognizable, each of the scenarios had to be broad to life, by
visualising it e.g. by describing a day in the life of a student, schoolteacher or teacher educator,
describing or drawing the architecture of the schoolbuilding, organisation models, role-plays, etc.
Step 4 is not yet finished. The descriptions and visualisations of the scenarios still have to be finalised.
The draft versions are presented in paragraph 4.
3
The scenario dimensions
3.1
Two dimensions
The scenarios are based on assumptions of social development in two dimensions. One dimensions is
a continuum from individualism to social coherence. The other dimension is a continuum from
pragmatism to idealism.
The two dimensions will not be considered as opposite to each other but simply as two aspects of the
possible future developments of societies. It is possible to combine them into a square of four cells by
visualizing them as two perpendicular axes, creating four quadrants with possible combinations of the
two dimensions, without further investigating the relationships between them.
Individualism
1
2
Pragmatism
Idealism
3
4
Social coherence
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Since we do not know which track social development will take in the future, we have four possible
scenarios according to assumptions of the following combinations.
1
Pragmatism and individualism
2
Idealism and individualism
3
Pragmatism and social coherence
4
Idealism and social coherence
3.2
The extreme points of the dimensions
Pragmatism - idealism
Pragmatism is a word of Greek origin. It stands for ‘the practical’. The concept of ‘pragmatism’ has
been used in philosophy. This usage was established in the USA in the beginning of the 20th century
and it founders were William James, Charles Sanders Pearce and John Dewey. For them
‘pragmatism’ was a designation for a moral philosophy characterised by focus on consequences and
anticipation of consequences as criteria for ethical judgement. The view is opposed to Kantian duty
oriented ethics characterised by focus on the action per se as a criterion for ethical judgement.
Epistemological standpoints were also taken in pragmatist philosophy. Criteria for truth were
previously of two kinds: correspondence between proposition and reality and meaning as a criterion
for truth. The pragmatists introduced a third criterion for truth and that was to look upon the
consequences of holding something as true. As the pragmatists took a strong stance on
constructivism and rejected more essentialist views on scientific propositions, it became logical to
judge those propositions according to plausibility, communicative qualities and pertinence, rather than
as a correspondence to some metaphysical idea of true reality.
The word pragmatic is used differently in everyday language. It stands for utility, practical solutions
and instrumentalism. If we talk about education in society, we can discern between a curriculum that is
intended to create job opportunities, provide skills that are useful for everyday life, enhance careers
etc. on the one hand and on the other a curriculum that is intended to develop the human character,
enhance formation of the individual and reproduce culture. The utility and career oriented curriculum is
pragmatic in the everyday sense of the word. It is this view on education and human action that we
refer to when using the word ‘pragmatic’ as an extreme in one of the dimensions.
If we think and act for utility, for practical solutions to real problems and if we consider the meaning of
schooling to be the enhancement of careers, creating job opportunities teaching life skills and being as
useful as possible for the individual projects of the students then we are found in the pragmatic
extreme of the dimension.
‘Idealism’ is used in philosophy as a school of thought in ontology that claims that the basic form of
existence is of a spiritual nature and not of a physical and material nature. It is also used as a term in
moral philosophy with reference to non-egoistical altruism as a force for human action.
‘Idealism’ in everyday language refers to altruism as opposed to egoism and it refers to human actions
that are taken, not for personal gains, but stem from ideas of what it is right to do, what is a person’s
duty or what constitutes a good action. Actions led by idealism in everyday language can refer to what
is done based on religious beliefs, political ideologies and ethical standpoints and values.
Idealism in the curriculum means that the intentions for schools are not to provide the best for the
students’ personal career ambitions, but inculcate values, reproduce culture, form good character, or
any other morally based purpose of schooling.
Basic values for an idealistic curriculum today would be to do with democratic values, tolerance,
gender and ethnic equity and human rights. It can also include ideas of what valid knowledge is, such
as a scientific world view, preservation of cultural heritage or ideas like sensitivity for global problems
such as environmental deterioration, global inequalities etc.
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If we believe that the object of the curriculum is the upholding of these values and epistemological
standpoints, that it should serve public not private good and that it is not there for personal projects
and career enhancement, then we are found on the extreme of the idealism dimension.
Individualism - social coherence
We have seen all over western Europe in the last decade, that the welfare states are going through a
systematic shift from public responsibility for their citizens to encouraging the individual to take
responsibility for their own future. People tend to trust less in public insurance and public pension
funds and become more interested in personal insurance and saving funds to safeguard personal
security. This trend is connected to what is sometimes called the ‘Restructuring Movement”. With
increasing state budget deficits in the Western World at the same time as there has been increasing
demands on public services and public spending, the governments have responded by actions such
as privatisation of what previously were public monopolies, with cost sharing of public service, with
decentralisation and more influence and more responsibility for those who make use of the service
and other actions directed towards more private and less public responsibility. The restructuring
movement is also exported to the third world through the conditions that the World Bank and the
International Monetary Fund set for grants and loans. The result has to some extent been a
dismantling of the welfare state ideology and practice and a mentality looking towards more
individualism.
The term individualism can in the curriculum be used from a variety of standpoints. It can mean a child
centred curriculum where the learning style and the pre-knowledge of each child is considered.
‘Individualism’ is a term that has been used in the education debate as a term loaded with positive
values. Individualism can also be considered as thinking in terms of private good as opposed to public
good. A child owes time to school and the school must give something back. The children and their
parents will be looked upon more as customers than before. Schools will then be used as a means for
the individual projects. Individualism in this sense is not the same thing as pragmatism even if there is
an overlap. It is theoretically possible that a child and its parents take an individualistic view of what
the school is there for. It is there to provide for MY child providing the best of HER/HIM. It is not there
as an instrument for the nation to spread its ideas to our children. We demand that schools should
follow our ideas in educating our children. But the ideas that the child and its parents hold need not
themselves be pragmatic. They could as well be governed by value systems and idealistic
standpoints. The more the students are looked upon as customers buying its education and the less
they are looked upon as citizens being educated according to how the good state wants to educate its
citizens, the further out on the extreme of individualism we are. The reverse is also valid. The more we
consider schools as agents for social coherence according to official values, the further out we are on
the social coherence extreme.
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4.
Four scenarios
Based on the selected dimensions, four subgroups have elaborated on the possible scenarios. First,
the subgroups tried to describe the situation in society, education and teacher education in keywords.
 How is society and (teacher) education organised?
 What are the characteristics of society, learning, schools and teachers?
 What are the consequences for teacher education and teacher educators?
Next, the scenarios were brought to life by describing daily life in each of the scenarios by means of a
short role-play or scene.
In this paragraph the draft versions of the scenarios are presented. The different
scenarios are not elaborated on the same level and still need some restyling and reshaping.
The role-plays will be used for a round table discussion during the 2001 ATEE-conference in
Stockholm about the future of teacher education. Using the results of this discussion, the scenarios
will be finalized.
4.1
Individual pragmatism
Underlying principles for the Individual Pragmatism scenario are
 Freedom of choice for the individual
 Diversity of provision
 Individualism but a pragmatic approach to problems
 Schools are to educate for employment.
The values supported by these ideas are those of freedom of choice, the need for diversity, the need
to encourage individual growth, the right of self-determination and the requirement for individual
responsibility.
Characteristics of society
Within family life there is much change. Many families are combined so stepparents and children are
common. This has led to an enormous diversification in family organisation, housing and lifestyles.
The society is hitech with many new buildings. New Offices and homes are equipped with ICT facilities
and Internet access as standard. For older properties not so equipped cyber cafes provide very cheap
IT/Internet facilities.
People seek out what fulfils them.
There is minimum government interference: an outer framework is provided but few services are
government run. Most decision-making is left to individuals and advice is available from a variety of
competitive private organisations that charge fees.
People group together to promote specific interests and networking is an essential skill.
Big companies have as much power and influence as the government
Characteristics of the learning process:
Great choice is provided regarding what, where, when and how to learn. This is left to the individual
and parental choice.
Broad, vague guidelines are given on what should be provided by educators. These are more about
the amount of study rather than the content. There are basic minimum requirements and expectations
for numeracy and literacy but after that the curriculum is left to the individual providers to determine.
However, much of this is directed towards producing people suited to the workforce in a variety of
ways and levels.
Assessment in this system takes a wide variety of forms and is set by individual educational
establishments.
Educational establishments depend on their reputation to attract clients. This reputation is particularly
focussed on exam results and whether students gain employment or places for further study. There is
great competition between establishments.
The government licenses all educational provisions and thus license has to be reapplied for at regular
intervals. The learning process is highly individualistic and depends to a great extent on the type of
educational establishment chosen by the client. In all education there is a heavy demand for ICT skills.
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Characteristics of Teacher Educators:
To become a teacher educator, one has to be registered by the government. To become a teacher
educator there are 2 routes:
a) for those who supervise students on teaching practice
b) for those who deliver pedagogical theory
Training centres offer training to teacher educators who start with an MA in education and then have
to undergo a training scheme, which is divided in to modules.
At the beginning of training a needs assessment takes place so students can choose the modules
they need. The schemes are part time and run at weekends to fit into student lives. This means that
an employed teacher can train to be a teacher educator whilst still in post.
There is a choice of age ranges and students can specialise in specific subjects, be generalists or
train as experts in school management, education consultants, or a combination. In this way, the
training can fit with individual needs.
Assessment at the end of the course before entering the profession is set by a European centralised
group, which sets standards and gives licenses and can also withdraw accreditation.
Teacher educators once accredited must continue their professional development whilst in post and
reapply for a license every 5 years. This is helped by ATEE virtual conferences held several times a
year to aid the continuous professional development of teacher educators. The role of standards,
which teacher educators must meet, regulated in the European Governments' Teacher Educators Act
(EGTEA). The system of registration is run by the Teacher Educators Accreditation Committee made
up of Teacher Educators from across Europe. This committee also sets the actual standards. This
allows standards to change, as needs change.
Within Centres for Teacher Education modules are offered on a rolling basis at weekends, evenings or
daytimes. The costs for these modules are share: There is some government funding, there is the
possibility of sponsorships by schools that want to employ the new teachers and students themselves
need personal funds. These last funds are supported by the Government by means of a vouchersystem: Students can get a certain amount of vouchers which can be used for education.
Lisa is 11 years old. She comes from a fairly poor background but her parents are very keen for her to have the
best possible education. Parents in this society are given vouchers to spend on their child’s education as they see
fit. The vouchers are provided by a government/commerce initiative, both sections putting money into the pot.
Lisa’s parents are very anxious to spend these vouchers in the most efficient way for Lisa’s benefit to ensure her
future success. There are many alternative schools/educational organisations on offer in the local area and
beyond, where she could obtain her education. These are as follows:
a) A conventional school that is situated near to Lisa’s home.
b) Specialist schools for the gifted. Specialisms range from sports to music, art and there are also schools for the
learning challenged and the academically highly able.
c) A boarding school in another country in the EU is also a possibility, where Lisa would have the opportunity to
mix with other children and learn other languages and the curriculum is designed to develop the whole person.
This school needs top up fees as the vouchers would not cover the whole cost.
d) A web school that teaches online and Lisa could be educated at home. Some of the voucher money would go
towards the purchase of a computer
e) A global giant company education scheme, which is sponsored by business and at the end education
employment is ensured by the particular company sponsoring the scheme. However, parents and students have
to sign a contract before beginning schooling regarding attendance, punctuality, and behaviour.
f) A home/community education scheme run by a group of local parents and designed to meet the needs of
individual students.
This is a very difficult decision for Lisa and her parents to make. To help them do this there are support services
provided in the local area. The cost of these will have to be met by using some of the vouchers. These services
are provided by private educational consultants/counsellors who are there to give guidance on choosing
between the different forms of education in order to suit an individual student. They use tests on personality
types, ability etc. The consultants are trained psychologists with specialities including careers guidance.
Teachers in the schools need to be of high quality so as to attract parents and students. This is a buyers market
and schools have to compete for students. It is important for schools to be popular with parents in order to
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attract funding. Lisa's parents want schools that are caring and kind in their approach but have a good
disciplinary record. They want teachers to be ‘good’ role models in schools, motivators rather than merely
passers on of subject knowledge.
There is enormous diversity in the way teachers are educated in this society. The recruitment demands are very
diverse for the different types of schools so there is a wide variety of training schemes on offer. Any group may
set up training schemes for teachers and the government merely provides a broad legal framework, which must
be adhered to by all such organisations. Competition is based on producing a wide variety of teachers with
specialist subject backgrounds tailored to fit different types of educational establishments including web
material writers and tutors and trainers for specific companies.
Teacher educators are themselves diverse and work as consultants to the training establishments hiring
themselves out to the ‘firms’ or establishments that train teachers. They are self-employed or employed by
specific companies. Their skills and knowledge bases depend on the area in which they train students to work.
Some of these educators are involved in training the educational consultants/counsellors enabling them to
facilitate choice. All these students are trained in financial management and self-employment law.
Professional bodies oversee and accredit these training schemes. These bodies are made up of the professional
groups, lawyers and government representatives.
4.2
Individual idealism
Underlying principles for the Individual Idealism scenario are:
 Respect for persons,
 Moral principles are important
 Individual rights and individual freedom
 Tolerance for diversity
 Individual responsibility
Keywords are selfrealisation, generosity, personal growth, love, freedom, peace, diversity, and internal
motivation.
Characteristics of society:
Society consists of small communes formed around specific ideologies. Membership to these
communes is voluntary and self-chosen. Within these communes social services are developed.
On a national level there is a liberal policy with few mandatory laws. Society is dominantly governed
based on a micro-policy rather than a macro-policy. As a consequence, nations are falling apart,
resulting in a virtual macro government. So society is characterised by fragmentation and isolation of
separate communes.
Characteristics of school:
The main aim of school is to strengthen value education. This is done based on individual
assessments and needs analysis. The content of this value education varies from school to school.
Since school aims at creating opportunities for learning, there is a strong emphasis on basic learning
skills.
Schools are flexible organisations, where learning is not confined by time or place and which uses
professionals and experts in various fields as teachers.
Characteristics of teachers:
A teacher needs to be an assessor; he must be able to diagnose learners.
At the same time he must be a counsellor to help students during their learning process.
As a person, a teacher must be creative and spontaneous, being able to solve unexpected problems.
Finally he must have expertise outside teaching, he must be a professional in his field.
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Characteristics of teacher education:
There are no teacher education institutions. Every student can his own personal development program
tailor-made. For this program, everything can be used as a part of the development program: work
experience, school practice, travel experiences, subject studies, etc.
For this reason, teacher education is for the largest part school based.
Characteristics of the teacher educator:
Since there are no teacher education institutes, there are only a few mentors in schools. In the
personal development program of a student, the use of these mentors is voluntary, It is up to the
student to decide whether and in what way he want to use the mentors.
Risks:
The risk of this scenario is that learners loose the holistic view on reality, since they have to decide for
themselves what and how they want to learn.
This risk also extends to society as a whole. The fragmentation of the society can lead to a lack of
cohesion in society and an isolation of groups. Such a situation might lead to a survival of the fittest
and anarchy: The individualism can lead to low social responsibility if strengthening of the individual’s
values fail. This fragmentation also might lead to social vulnerability: when there is no social
coherence and society as whole can not answer fundamental problems in society, a more systematic
power can take over.
Opportunities:
At the same time, a society and educational system based on individual and idealistic principles can
foster individual freedom and fulfilment.
The emphasis on personal development will lead to the development of real expertise on a personal
level, which can lead to a maximised use of human resources.
Franci/es wants to work with children in a learning centre and to become a professional guide of the learning
processes. In our society there is no fixed programme for preparation for this work and there are no
examinations either. Every learning centre can employ whatever person it wants or needs as a resource.
Franci/es might consider several possibilities to prepare for the particular learning centre in which s/he is going
to work
1.
I want to spend time in a Children’s Hospital - to understand children of a range of backgrounds and at
points of great vulnerability in order to gain insight into ways of helping children in difficulties.
2.
I believe that travelling round the world, getting personal knowledge of different cultures will form a
useful source of understanding learners in the multicultural society in which we live, promoting
awareness of respect for differences and similarities.
3.
I’m really passionate about art so I want to explore all aspects: painting, textiles, three-dimensional
work, art galleries - not only for my own development but also so that I can enable children to enter this
marvellous magical world.
4.
In order to understand past traditions of education, which still survive now I will spend some time
working in a Montessori school to feel the atmosphere of individuals grappling with their own progress
in learning. In so doing I shall appreciate the tangible learning going on.
5.
In order to experience the diversity of training methods (and perhaps reject them) I will spend time in
some other learning centres working and discussing with learning professionals and trainees, trying to
understand how they view learning and how it can best be promoted.
6.
I shall study a range of Philosophers and Theologians and do a course of Meditation to explore the
meaning of life. This study will allow me to have a clearer view of my own values, for choice and action
and to help learners have insight into choices and actions in their own lives.
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4.3
Social coherent pragmatism
Characteristics of society:
In this quadrant ‘society’ or group arrangement has developed because it is a pragmatic solution to the
organization of human life. There is no utopian view of an ideal society. Social organization and
coherence is not seen as better than any other except that it is the most practical and efficient form for
society. The society is oriented towards solving its political, social and economic problems quickly: to
that extent it is concerned with achieving short-term goals. It is a group problem solving society to
guard against the dangers of individualism.
The society is organized in such a way that the key decisions made within the society are made for the
benefit of society as a whole and not in the interest of the individual. These decisions may be made
by a democratically elected assembly or a totalitarian form of government. Both forms would be
advised by experts who would therefore be very powerful.
Characteristics of education:
One of the key methods of confronting identified problems is through education. The education system
is highly centralized as the school is seen as an institution for realizing the will of society and not the
individual. There are two main functions of education; to provide a workforce to meet the needs of
society and to instill in the citizen the notion of collective problem solving. The curriculum is therefore
organized into two parts. First the knowledge and expertise needed by the workforce which must be
responsive to need and therefore flexible. No form of knowledge or skills would be valued for their own
sake and therefore privileged but valued for its use at any specific time. This might be provided online,
as such curricula may be quicker to update. Second the underlying principles and skills needed for a
society based on pragmatic problem solving. Citizens would need to learn to co-operate, negotiate,
value the skills of individuals and use them for the benefit of the group. They would also need to learn
to resolve conflicts peacefully. Education would be a lifelong process as the needs of society change
so citizens need re-training.
Characteristics of school:
There would be school buildings because of the need to meet so that group approaches,
responsibilities and loyalties can develop. The knowledge and skills curriculum however could be
delivered in the learner's home through IT. In the schools citizens would learn how to learn and how to
apply it for the benefit of society. There may be some illusion of choice and parental choice but as a
compliance mechanism not as a real choice - that would be too individualistic.
Characteristics of teachers:
Teaching would model the group problem solving techniques and a teacher would guide rather than
instruct. Teams of teachers with different skills would work with learners to demonstrate negotiation
skills etc. Teachers would not do this job for life but as the needs of society change so will the desired
characteristics of the teaching force. Clearly there needs to be a strong element of lifelong learning.
Characteristics of teacher education:
The teacher education system would need to be highly flexible and respond rapidly to changes in
need. Its focus is certainly more oriented towards process than knowledge. A similar team approach
to that in school would be adopted within teacher education: team teaching and group problem
solving.
Risks
In this scenario there is the risk that the short-term approach might lead to making false predictions of
society’s needs. As the pragmatic approach leaves little freedom for imaginative risk, the solutions
derived may be narrow. When this pragmatic approach is used for education, this might lead to the
development of citizens who does not take risks, which will mean that society stagnates.
The social coherent approach might lead to a moral dictatorship where a compliant citizen may adjust
to anything ‘for the good of society’.
As there are no ideals to be achieved, the educated know how to do things but do not develop the art
of judgement based on shared values.
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Opportunities
This scenario leads to a practical and rational society with a high degree of satisfaction and purpose,
offering a cost effective education system which places money and people where they are needed in
such a way that education is available to all citizens for the whole of their lives, empowering them to
meet the needs of society.
Education is something of value- as an educated person you play a valuable role in society, fulfilling a
social need, therefore Teacher Education Centres are successful and popular- delivering the teachers
that society needs.
Citizen x has been educated at collective school 3457291. S/he began at 6 with basic communication
and social skills showing a particular flair for music. At this time however it was predicted that there
would a desperate shortage of electronic engineers when s/he joined the work force and so s/he was
encouraged to spend time on maths and science. Her parents supported the school but citizen x was
allowed to sing and play the piano in spare time. S/he was therefore happy and fulfilled: life would be
spent for the good of all.
As s/he approached graduation from the collective school society had changed. A technological
revolution had solved the electronics shortage but led to a desperate need for knowledge managers.
These teachers would work in teams to assist citizens in making decisions about the usefulness and
appropriateness of knowledge for solving societies problems in the future. There was a growing
awareness that the speed of change would accelerate in the near future and that the pattern of lifelong
learning would change with citizens needing to spend more time in short bursts of training.
Citizen X is interviewed at an education centre.
Tutor: Why have you decided to apply for a place to train to be a teacher?
X:
My mentor at the collective school told me that there was a shortage and that it is my social
duty to apply. I have the grades and learning style profile suitable to be a teacher and this is
the closest institution to where I live.
Tutor: I see from your report that this is so
X:
Will I be able to specialise in music or electronics?
Tutor: I am afraid not the need now is for knowledge managers.
X:
But will I get paid as much managing knowledge as in engineering. Engineers used to earn
social priority allowance 1?
Tutor: Not any more.
X.
What will the methods of my training be?
Tutor: You are aware of group problem solving techniques and information management selection
processes. As your groups learning needs change so will the methods employed by your
teachers. Here we aim to provide the best modelling of school practice possible.
X.
So I will be able to develop my co-operative and negotiation skills further.
Tutor: Of course, these are highly prized.
X.
How long will my training take.
Tutor That depends on the initial needs analysis of your group
X.
And will I have the opportunity to retrain in the future
Tutor: This centre has a world wide reputation for lifelong learning and as an ex student you would
gain priority
X.
Thank you
Tutor: We will contact you shortly.
4.4
Social coherent idealism
Characteristics of society:
Social coherence is characterized by a society that aims at common goals, which are negotiated and
based on consensus. Those goals are necessary to create a well functioning democracy, based on
tolerance, respect, understanding, …
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The Idealism in society is aimed at the best for society/ a preferred society and equal opportunities for
all citizens and works along long-term goals.
This society is heterogeneous: individuals belong to different groups at the same time (geographically,
ethnic, workbased, religious, international, etc.).Society has also a problem with the balance between
social coherence and respect for individual group-identities. E.g. respect for ethnic groups and giving
freedom to establish their own organizations (e.g. learning centers) leads at the same time to
segregation of ethnic groups.
Steering in society can be both centralized (steering by rules) and decentralized (steering by goals).
Since changes are negotiated and based on consensus, society has problems with adaptation to
changes. Changes will be adopted and not imposed and therefore implementation of changes is slow.
Characteristics of education:
The goals and aims of education are to give each individual the opportunity to become a person in
interaction with others, with self-esteem and open and caring for the needs of others. To create well
functioning citizens, who embrace common values and seek the balance between the common
interest of individuals and society.
Learning is a way of self-development and conditioning at the same time. So learning centers try to
work on social training and teamwork. The co-operation between parents, pupils and educators is
important. The learning center is a mean for integration of different groups, e.g. by creating (physical
and virtual) educational networks.
Since education is seen as a mean to create a coherent society and as a long-term investment in a
stable society, society is willing to invest in an expensive education system.
Characteristics of school:
The state has a responsibility to provide education for everybody, but different groups (parents,
religions, etc.) have the right and possibility to start their own ‘free’ learning centers 1, funded by the
state. In the board of a learning center, parents have an important role.
Learning centers have a close connection with other parts of society (health and social care, industry,
…). Other institutions are involved in the actual education that takes place (community learning
centers).
The curriculum is partly defined by a set of common goals for all learning centers (the National Core
Curriculum) which defines the general moral and ethic goals of society (based on the main aims of
education) and the (subject) knowledge and competencies each citizen needs. The other part of the
curriculum is free for the learning center to define, based on her own values and beliefs. This part can
vary from center to center.
The accreditation of diplomas is mostly based on the National Core Curriculum.
Education is intended to create equal opportunities for each individual, taking into account the
possibilities and interests of each person. This leads to individual routes, but not individual learning.
The length of the basic schoolperiod can vary, but also the type of learning route (workbased, learning
centerbased, etc.).
Characteristics of teachers:
The educator is a mentor/counselor for pupils/students, giving advice on the best personal learning
route fitting with the pupil’s interests and abilities. At the same time educators are role-models for
pupils in their moral ethics.
The educating profession has a high status and other professional fields (e.g. industry) try to attract
educators from the learning centers, since companies see it as their duty to offer possibilities for and
invest in personal development of their personnel. Since educators are experts on coaching of
personal development and learning processes, companies are willing to employ them.
Learning centers invest in their personnel (just as other companies) and all participants in the learning
center are involved in the professional development of the team. In some occasions experts from
1
The institute formerly known as ´school´.
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outside are invited to stimulate the professional development of the team. On other occasions
educators participate in activities at universities.
Characteristics of teacher education:
An initial education for educators is seen as a precondition for entering the profession. This initial
education is the responsibilities of the universities, although learning centers are involved in providing
learning environments where students participate in education in practice, getting the experiences for
reflection during their education. The students in the learning centers are mentored by educators in
the university. The education of educators is based on the National Core Curriculum and on the
Qualifications for Educators as defined by the National Association for Educators. The universities are
evaluated by a joint committee, consisting of representatives from the NAE, the universities and the
government.
The NAE has also defined further qualifications for educators, enabling educators to be involved in a
life long career. The NAE is responsible for accrediting educators after their initial education as
educator.
The universities are involved in practice-based action research, next to other academic research and
activities. Educational departments are co-operating with learning centers, which act as learning
environment for students and as places where academic action research takes place, to make explicit
the tacit knowledge of educators.
Characteristics of teacher educators:
The education of educators of educators has a broad curriculum in which the education of special
needs educators is integrated, since an educator must be able to advice pupils in heterogeneous
groups on their most efficient learning route.
The Head of Department of a European University probably located in your country is working in her office.
Imagine a well-decorated and comfortable room, with a European flag behind (How many stars? Guess!).
Let’s listen to a short dialogue between her and an American journalist working for AJTE (American Journal of
Teacher Education).
After some words to introduce themselves (I’m Bill Smith, … pleased to meet you… Welcome to Europe, we’re
always pleased to welcome Americans back to the old continent… How can I help you? …), we have the
following dialogue.
AJ: It has been a while I haven’t been in Europe… Yes, last time I was here was in 2001… So a long time ago!
Could you give me some idea on how you work in teacher education in Europe? I’d like to have some
information about the way you’re dealing with this issue nowadays, whether there has been any change or not…
Our readers are particularly interested to know if it’s different from what we do in America…
EHD: Well, what I can say is that teacher profession is highly valued in Europe now. It’s not very easy to enter a
teacher education course, because there are many candidates who want to apply to it.
AJ: Really?
EHD: Is it a surprise for you? The society has already recognised how important education is if we want to build
a coherent society in Europe. And teacher education particularly has contributed a lot for the development of the
European identity. Now we know who we are, what we want and what to do to get it!
AJ: How is that possible with such diversity?
EHD: Everyone is well accepted and integrated. Differences are not seen as menaces.
AJ: But I mean the differences from country to country…
EHD: But we do have a lot in common, we share the same values, same history, and even the same language!
AJ: Same language? How is it possible?
EHD: Don’t you know? Everyone in Europe speaks BSE now.
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AJ: BSE?
EHD: Yes, BSE as we call it: Badly Spoken English. And we live in peace, we have no strikes, no troubles and
education is on a very high level. Can you see the link between the education and the teacher education? That’s
why our governments decided to invest on teacher education…
AJ: And how did you manage to create this European identity and this sense of European citizenship?
EHD: We set up many projects on the European dimension, highly financed by the EU, some twenty years ago…
AJ: So teacher education has changed a great deal…
EHD: Oh yes, we expect a lot from a teacher now. He or she has to be very well qualified. The European teacher
nowadays has to deal with different pupils, different needs and different backgrounds… But at the same time he
has to be able to give a particular attention to our common values, common culture and beliefs at the level of a
European dimension…
AJ: I see… The teacher has an important role in Europe…
EHD: That’s true. That’s why the society values this profession more and more.
AJ: American Journalist
EHD: European Head of Department
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5
Consequences for Teacher Education
In the preceding paragraphs we described the way in which we developed the scenarios and the
scenarios themselves. We believe that both the process and our product can be useful for teacher
education.
First we will elaborate on the process.
5.1
The use of scenario-making in teacher education
As we mentioned in paragraph 1, the making of scenarios can be useful in several ways.
 It is a way to stimulate the sensitivity for trends and developments and the needs in the near
future.
 It stimulates the imagination of people involved in education.
 It makes people aware of the important factors influencing (teacher) education.
 It can give guidance by decisions that have to be taken.
 It gives an opportunity to be pro-active and to take an active part in the realisation of a desired
scenario.
The making of scenarios involves a learning process, since it brings changes in a broader perspective.
This is useful on several levels.
1. As an instrument for organisational learning it can be used on the level on the management of
institutes for teacher education, helping them to set course for the future and to be pro-active.
Using scenarios is rehearsing the future. By recognising the warning signs and the drama that is
unfolding, one can avoid surprises, adapt, and act effectively. In this way it stimulates innovation
and change.
2. It can also be an instrument for organisational learning for the whole of the organisation.
Scenarios provide a common vocabulary and an effective basis for communicating complex sometimes paradoxical- conditions and options. Good scenarios are plausible and surprising, they
have the power to break old stereotypes, and their creators assume ownership and put them to
work. In this way it can create support for necessary changes.
3. At the same time, the making of scenarios can be used within the curriculum of teacher education.
By challenging students to make scenarios (on the future of the educational field where they will
be working), they are challenged to think about the future, to connect their views on education with
changes taking place in society and to questions stereotypes and traditions. Based on our
experiences with scenario-making some of our members have introduced scenario-making as an
element in their curriculum.
4. As with students within teacher education, it can be used in in-service teacher education,
challenging teachers to reshape their teaching practice and school organisation.
5. On broader level, the process of making and rethinking scenarios can be useful on a national
level, supporting the educational policies and discussions on future models, national curricula,
steering, etc.
6. On an international level, scenario-making can be used to discuss and analyse national
developments and to look for common trends and strategies. In that respect, the ATEE can use
the discussion on the scenarios presented in this document or other scenarios to refine its strategy
and future visions on teacher education. This can strengthen its role in strategic discussions on a
European level.
On all these levels, the result of scenario planning is not a more accurate picture of tomorrow but
better thinking and an ongoing strategic conversation about the future.
5.2
The use of the four scenarios
Our ambition was to make scenarios that are consistent, plausible, challenging and recognizable. In
paragraph 4 a first description is presented. We believe that the methodology we used to select the
fields of change and design the two dimensional matrix led to four rather consistent scenarios. The
descriptions could be elaborated. A final version will be written in September 2001 and February 2002
during the meetings of RDC 19.
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As for the plausibility and the question whether the scenarios are recognizable, the scenarios can be
compared with changes taking place in the different countries. During a round table meeting at the
ATEE-conference in Stockholm, September 2001, leading experts from the field of teacher education
form different European countries will comment on the scenarios and compare them with
developments in their countries. In this way we hope to answer the question whether each of the
scenarios has a certain probability to become reality. This again might lead to revisions in the
descriptions.
Finally, there is the question whether the scenarios are challenging. Do they stir the imagination? Do
they make people enthusiast or worried about the future and do they stimulate teacher educators in
taking initiatives towards the future they prefer? To have that effect, the daily life descriptions in each
of the scenarios probably need a revision, making them less abstract.
At the same time, the scenarios should support teacher educators, organisations and management in
making strategic decisions. To have that purpose, it is necessary to analyse the scenarios once more
to identify elements of the scenarios that are preferable and to identify the elements that can by
influenced by teacher educators, management and organisations like the ATEE.
Finally, that brings us back to the ATEE. At the end of this paper, we would like to reflect on the use of
these scenarios for our own organisation, the ATEE. The scenarios that we present in this paper are a
first draft, from the point of view of the members of RDC 19. We found it challenging and inspiring to
bring together our expertise and experiences from our own countries and to discuss trends and
developments. However, we are a small group and the ATEE is a much broader organisation,
combining lots of experiences and expertise.
Other RDCs could be involved in rethinking the scenarios and their consequences for the teaching
practice (RDC 14), management and leadership (RDC 4), in-service teacher education (RDC 9),
research in teacher education (RDC1), etc. At the same time, the Administrative Council can discuss
the strategic position of the ATEE in the European developments of teacher education.
The results of these discussions within different RDCs and the Administrative Council can be
incorporated in a final ATEE-publication.
In this way, this paper is just the first step in a broader ATEE project leading to an elaborated
European discussion paper as a contribution to the discussions concerning the future of teacher
education in Europe.
Amsterdam, August 2001
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Contributors
The following members of research and development centre 19 have contributed to this document:
Gavin Baldwin, Middlesex University, London, UK
Paul Cautreels, Karel de Grote Hogeschool, Antwerpen, Belgium
Torsten Enemaerke, Odense Teacher Training College, Denmark
Valerie Halstead, University of Middlesex, London, UK
Gillian Hilton, Middlesex University, London, UK
Thorunn Klemp, Høgskolen i Sør-Trøndelag, Norway
Leo Leriche, Australia
Göran Linde, Stockholm Institute of Education, Sweden
Elisabeth Nilsen, Høgskolen i Bodø, Norway
Jöran Rehn, University of Uppsala, Sweden
Ronny Smet, Karel de Grote Hogeschool, Antwerpen, Belgium
Kari Smith, Oranim School of Education, Israël
Marco Snoek (Chair), Amsterdam Faculty of Education, The Netherlands
Jesus Maria Sousa, University of Madeira, Madeira
Lex Stomp, Hogeschool Windesheim, Zwolle, The Netherlands
Hans Svensson, University of Uppsala, Sweden
Leif Svensson, University of Umeå, Sweden
Bibilography
Delors, Jacques, et al. (1996). Learning, the treasure within. Report to UNESCO of the international
commission on education for the 21st century. UNESCO, Paris.
GBN (1995). Education and Community. Four scenarios for the future of public education. In: The
Deeper News, 6 (1).
OECD (2001a). Educational Policy Analysis 2001. (Paris: OECD). Available at http://www.oecd.org
OECD (2001b, to be published). Schooling for Tomorrow, What schools for the future. OECD, Paris.
Ringland, Gill (1998). Scenario Planning: Managing for the Future. Wiley.
Snoek, M.; Wielenga, D.K. (2001). Teacher Education in The Netherlands; Change of Gear.
Contribution to the UNESCO-CEPES project "Institutional Approaches to Teacher Education [within
higher education] in the Europe Region: Current Models and New Developments".
Sousa, Jesus Maria (2001). Future scenarios in face of the global and particular dynamics. Paper
presented at the Kuwait conference of the ISTE (International Society for Teacher Education),
February 2001.
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