Mr. Mubita Luwabelwa
Deputy Director – Planning and Budgeting
Ministry of Health, Zambia
International Launch of the Zambian
National Health Strategic Plan
7th February 2012, BMA - London
NHSP COST ESTIMATES
The total budget requirement by the NHSP
program areas was done using the Marginal
Budgeting for Bottlenecks (MBB) tool.
Three Scenarios were developed:
Scenario 1


Based on current priorities and continuation
of current funding levels, but includes
additional
funding
for
interventions
targeting newborn, child and maternal
health.
The investment is estimated to reduce
neonatal, under five and Maternal mortality
by 12.7%, 24.4% and 17.0% respectively
Scenario 1
Cost in x1000 USD
Program
1USD= 5 000 ZMK
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Total
Total budget in Thousands US$
Leadership & governance
15,237
15,322
15,407
15,492
15,578
77,037
213,937
220,570
227,203
233,836
240,469
1,136,015
187,175
206,228
225,280
244,333
263,385
1,126,402
136,119
136,120
136,120
136,121
136,122
680,602
49,767
50,563
51,360
52,156
52,952
256,797
3,198
3,560
3,923
4,285
4,647
19,614
7,125
7,165
7,210
7,258
7,312
22,695
612,558
639,529
666,503
693,482
720,465
3,332,536
Service delivery
Human resources
Commodities
Infrastructure and ICT
Health information
Health care financing
Total
Projection by Financing source
GRZ
160,489
257,507
294,340
350,994
369,564
1,432,893
239,394
184,935
170,038
150,071
126,141
870,579
6,002
6,602
7,262
7,988
8,787
36,640
206,674
190,485
194,863
184,429
215,973
992,424
DPs
IGR
Gap
Scenario 2


Encompasses scenario one
But also an additional investment per capita
in the final year of the NHSP, with 15.9%,
30.0% and 20.6% estimated reductions in
neonatal,
under-five,
and
maternal
mortality, respectively.
Scenario 2
Cost in x1000 USD ZMK
Program
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Total
Total budget in Thousands US$
Leadership & governance
16,430
17,708
18,986
20,264
21,542
94,929
Service delivery
218,580
227,295
236,009
244,724
253,439
1,180,047
Human resources
198,188
224,107
250,026
275,945
301,864
1,250,130
Commodities
136,692
136,693
136,694
136,695
136,697
683,470
62,031
63,852
65,673
67,493
69,314
328,363
Health information
3,451
4,065
4,680
5,295
5,910
23,400
Health care financing
7,327
7,387
7,454
7,528
7,608
23,929
642,699
681,107
719,522
757,944
796,372
3,597,644
Infrastructure and ICT
Total
Projection by Financing source
GRZ
160,489
257,507
294,340
350,994
369,564
1,432,893
DONOR
239,394
184,935
170,038
150,071
126,141
870,579
6,002
6,602
7,262
7,988
8,787
36,640
IGR
Scenario 3


Encompasses scenario one
But also an additional investment per capita
in the final year of the NHSP, with 15.9%,
30.0% and 20.6% estimated reductions in
neonatal,
under-five,
and
maternal
mortality, respectively.
SCENARIO 3
Cost in x1000 USD
Program
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Total
Total budget in Thousands US$ (Scenario 1)
Leadership & governance
16,855
18,559
20,262
21,965
23,668
101,309
230,679
250,651
270,623
290,595
310,567
1,353,115
207,081
238,565
270,049
301,533
333,017
1,350,244
139,725
139,726
139,728
139,730
139,731
698,640
74,546
77,402
80,259
83,116
85,973
401,296
3,694
4,552
5,410
6,268
7,126
27,051
7,529
7,610
7,699
7,797
7,905
25,164
680,108
737,065
794,030
851,004
907,987
3,970,194
Service delivery
Human resources
Commodities
Infrastructure and ICT
Health information
Health care financing
Total
Projection by Financing source
GRZ
160,489
257,507
294,340
350,994
369,564
1,432,893
239,394
184,935
170,038
150,071
126,141
870,579
6,002
6,602
7,262
7,988
8,787
36,640
274,224
288,021
322,390
341,951
403,495
1,630,081
DONOR
IGR
Gap
Scenario 1, 2 & 3
1,000,000.00
900,000.00
800,000.00
700,000.00
600,000.00
Scenario 1
500,000.00
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
400,000.00
300,000.00
200,000.00
100,000.00
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
THANK YOU