The Demography of Religious
Change in the West
Eric Kaufmann
Birkbeck College, University of London
e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk
Religion in the West
• Loss through secularization
• Moderation of slide by resistant remnant,
notably fundamentalists
• Gain through demography
Demography and Religion
• Indirect: poor, less educated and rural people
have more children than urban, wealthy,
educated
• Direct: Religious have more children than
seculars; fundamentalists more than
moderates
The Religious Tropics: Total
Fertility Rates by Country, 2008
Source: CIA World Fact Book 2008
Indirect Effect: Expansion of Islam; Conversion Effect:
Decline of Animists; Both: Decline of Seculars
Past and Projected Global Religious Affiliation
(World Religious Database)
45
40
35
30
1900
25
1970
20
2000
15
2025
10
5
0
Christian
Muslim
Hindu
Nonreligious +
Atheist
Other
Decline in Numbers of White British
and Christians,
England and London, 2001-2011
0%
-2%
-4%
White British
(England)
Christians
(England)
White British
(London)
-1.1%
-6%
-5.2%
-8%
-10%
-12%
-10.7%
-14%
-16%
Christians
(London)
-14.4%
Decline in Numbers of White British
and Christians,
England and London, 2001-2011
0%
-2%
-4%
White British
(England)
Christians
(England)
White British
(London)
-1.1%
-6%
-5.2%
-8%
-10%
-12%
-10.7%
-14%
-16%
Christians
(London)
-14.4%
Direct Effect: Religiosity and Fertility in
Europe and USA
TFR
Austria 2001
Switzerland 2000
Roman Catholics
1.32
1.41
Protestants
Muslims
Others
Without
Total
1.21
2.34
1.44
0.86
1.33
1.35
2.44
1.74
1.11
1.5
United States, 2006
(GSS)
TFR
Wrong Not wrong
Diff
Homosexuality
2.5
1.98
0.52
Abortion
2.47
1.83
0.64
Projected Nonreligious Population of Austria to 2051, 36 Scenarios
Source: Goujon et al. 2006
Similar Dynamics in
USA
Religion in the West
• Loss through secularization
• Moderation of slide by resistant remnant
• Gain through demography
– Indirect through global migration
– Direct, through higher fertility
• Fundamentalists maximize gains, minimize
losses