The Demographic
Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model
• generalization that depicts a countries
development from a pre-industrial society
to a post-industrial society and beyond
• Describes changing levels of fertility and
mortality as well as general levels of
population growth
• Based on known facts rather than general
assumption
The Demographic Transition Model
As we go through, consider these
questions: What countries might be in
each stage? Where are the core,
periphery and semi-periphery countries?
Stage 1: High Stationary / Pre-Transition
• High birth rate and high death rate
• Two rates are nearly equal
• Death rate fluctuating likely due to
war and disease
• Involves a low-income agricultural
economy
• Children are less of an expense and
more of a commodity
• Population growth is very slow
• Population resides in rural areas
• Countries? Core, periphery or semiperiphery?
Stage 2: Expanding Stage / Early Transition
•
•
•
•
Birth rate remains high
Death rate begins to fall rapidly
Results in population explosion
Early industrialization
paralleled with medical and
health advances
• Infant mortality declines, life
expectancy increases
• This stage characterizes
nations in early development
• Countries? Core, periphery or
semi-periphery?
Stage 3: Late Expanding Stage / Late Transition
• Principle feature is a declining birth rate which is the result of
voluntary decisions to reduce family size and the availability of
contraceptives
• Increased standards of living
• Rate of Natural Increase is falling
• The cost of children is increasing
• Medical advancements continuing to decrease death rate
• Population still increasing relatively quickly
• Countries? Core, periphery or semi-periphery?
Stage 4: Low Growth Stage / Post Transition
• Birth rate remains slightly above the death rate
• Rate of Natural Increase is low
• Population growth is low and stable
• Women entering workforce, couples postponing families while
educational goals are sought
• Population viewed as ‘greying’ or ‘aging’
• Canada would fall into this stage of the DTM
• Countries? Core, periphery or semi-periphery?
Stage 5: Deindustrialization / Declining
• The population is declining
• Characterizes countries with present and predicted negative
population growth rates such as Russia and many European
countries
• Death rate begins to exceed the birth rate
• Countries? Core, periphery or semi-periphery?
Relationship to Population Pyramids
• By analyzing population pyramids, one
can decipher fairly accurately the stage of
the demographic transition model that that
particular country is in and vice versa
• In combination with each other and if the
model holds true, a countries future growth
and development can be predicted
• Shortcoming of the Demographic
Transition Model: does not provide a bold
hypothesis about future growth or decline
Stage 1: Pre-Transition and Unstable
Stage 2: Expanding / Early Transition
Stage 3: Stable / Late Transition
Stage 4: Stationary / Post-Transition
Stage 5: Deindustrialization / Declining
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