Unit title:
Environment and energy in world context
Presentation title: Can the DESERTEC concept and the
proposed EU-MENA supergrid facilitate contraction and
convergence of carbon emissions between the nations
involved?
Unit number:
A1
Unit date:
September 16th 2008
Presentation date: November 11th 2008
Student name:
Craig Embleton
Student number:
0750553
Seminar group:
1 (Melissa Taylor)
e-mail:
admin@greenfrontier.org
Website:
www.greenfrontier.org
CAN THE DESERTEC CONCEPT AND
THE PROPOSED EU-MENA
SUPERGRID FACILITATE
CONTRACTION AND CONVERGENCE
OF CARBON EMISSIONS BETWEEN
THE NATIONS INVOLVED?
Future EU-MENA supergrid
Source: Club of Rome, 2006 http://www.desertec.org
DLR Studies
Source: Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR)
German Aerospace Centre
50 Countries in TRANS-CSP & MED-CSP DLR Studies
TRANS-CSP_Data.xls
MED-CSP_Data.xls
Source: User created map based on Canuckguy, 2008:
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Image:BlankMap-World6.svg
Contraction and Convergence
• Proposed by the Global Commons Institute (GCI)
• Framework for reducing (contraction)
greenhouse gas emissions
• A safe level that is equal on a per capita basis for
all countries (convergence).
• Now at the core of the UN Framework
Convention on Climate Change
Source: (Meyer, A 2004).
Contraction and Convergence Scenario r350
ccv8_6.xls
•Convergence Year
•Population cut off year
•Emissions Growth Rate in 2000
•Contraction year
•Emissions decline rate in contraction year
•Contraction level of emissions
•Planned total 110-year emissions
•Target concentration in 2200
2040
2040
1.50%
2050
2.50%
20%
325 Gt carbon
350 ppmv
Source: Source: Global Commons Institute, 2003
http://www.gci.org.uk/model/ccov8_6.zip
’Scenarios’ datasheet of the GCI excel spreadsheet: ccv8_6.xls
Total carbon emissions from all sources in 2000 in
millions of tonnes for top 10 emitting nations
250
217.0
200
146.5
150
115.3
100.6
100
84.3
83.4
75.1
62.1
57.9
50
38.4
Source data: Global Commons Institute, 2003
Netherlands
Turkey
Saudi
Arabia
Spain
Iran
Poland
France
Italy
United
Kingdom
Germany
0
Total carbon emissions from all sources in 2000 in
millions of tonnes for bottom 10 emitting nations
250
200
150
100
5.5
5.1
4.8
4.1
4.1
3.3
2.1
1.7
1.0
0.6
Bahrain
Yemen
Lebanon
Jordan
Slovenia
Macedonia
Luxembourg
Cyprus
Malta
Iceland
50
0
Source data: Global Commons Institute, 2003
Total carbon emissions per capita from all sources in
2000 in thousands of tonnes for 10 most emitting
nations
24.4
25
20
5.4
5
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.8
Saudi
Arabia
4.8
Israel
6.0
Czech
Republic
8.1
Ireland
9.0
10
Finland
15
Luxembourg
Kuwait
Bahrain
United Arab
Emirates
Qatar
0
Source data: Global Commons Institute, 2003
Total carbon emissions per capita from all sources in
2000 in thousands of tonnes for 10 least emitting
nations
25
20
15
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.3
0.3
Syria
Romania
Algeria
Turkey
Jordan
Tunisia
Egypt
Morocco
Yemen
5
Iraq
10
0
Source data: Global Commons Institute, 2003
Permitted per capita carbon emissions in tonnes from
2000 until 2050 under Contraction and Convergence to
the current ten most carbon emitting nations in the DLR
study
Qatar
United Arab Emirates
Bahrain
Kuwait
Luxembourg
Finland
Ireland 0.284 0.142
Czech Republic
Israel
Saudi Arabia
25
20
15
10
5
Year
Source data: Global Commons
Institute, 2003
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
0
Permitted per capita carbon emissions in tonnes from
2000 until 2050 under Contraction and Convergence to
the current ten least carbon emitting nations in the DLR
study
Year
Source data: Global Commons
Institute, 2003
2050
2045
Syria
Algeria
Jordan
Egypt
Yemen
0.284
0.142
2040
2035
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
2030
Iraq
Romania
Turkey
Tunisia
Morocco
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Electricity consumption in terawatt hours per year of the
twenty most consuming nations in 2000
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
Source data: DLR, 2005 & 2006
Saudi
Arabia
Turkey
Norway
Poland
Sweden
Spain
Italy
United
Kingdom
France
Germany
0
Predicted electricity consumption in terawatt hours per
year of the twenty most consuming nations in 2050
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
Source data: DLR, 2005 & 2006
Algeria
Italy
Iraq
Saudi
Arabia
France
United
Kingdom
Turkey
Iran
Germany
Egypt
0
Three models investigated
Model 1
All carbon emissions come from electricity production
via methods outlined in DLR studies.
Method of Calculation
Carbon emissions permitted under C&C
Minus
predicted carbon emissions from the production of electricity
only according to DLR studies.
DLR, 2006: TRANS-CSP_Data.xls & MED-CSP_Data.xls
GCI, 2003: ccv8_6.xls
Three models investigated
Model 2
As electricity use changes in the nations in the DLR studies,
other emissions of carbon remain static at year 2000 levels.
Method of Calculation
Carbon emissions permitted under C&C
Minus
predicted carbon emissions from the production of electricity
only according to DLR studies.
Minus
other Carbon emissions in the year 2000.
DLR, 2006: TRANS-CSP_Data.xls & MED-CSP_Data.xls
GCI, 2003: ccv8_6.xls
Three models investigated
Model 3
As electricity use changes in the nations in the DLR studies,
other emissions of carbon change in proportion to changes
in electricity use in proportion to year 2000 levels.
Method of Calculation
Carbon emissions permitted under C&C
Minus
predicted carbon emissions from the production of electricity
only according to DLR study.
Minus
other carbon emissions extrapolated from year 2000
electricity use figures.
DLR, 2006: TRANS-CSP_Data.xls & MED-CSP_Data.xls
GCI, 2003: ccv8_6.xls
Model 1 example - Germany
•Year 2000 carbon emissions
= 217,018,500 tonnes
•Of which for electricity production = 93,336,056 tonnes
•Of which other
= 123,682,444 tonnes
•Year 2030 C&C permitted emissions = 58,245,013 tonnes
•Year 2030 DLR predicted emissions = 83,317,339 tonnes
•58,245,013 - 83,317,339 = -25,072,326
•25 Mt of carbon more than allowed!
•From electricity production alone!!
Model 1 – Results for 2030 and 2050.
Worst performing countries.
Mt carbon
9
-5 -7
-6 -5
United
Kingdom
-5
-3 -3
-3 -2
-2
-4
-2
-2 -2
-1 -2
2030
2050
Source data: GCI, 2003 and DLR, 2005 & 2006
Denmark
Czech
Republic
France
Israel
Netherlands
Iran
-25
Belgium
-9
Saudi
Arabia
1
Germany
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
Model 1 – Results for 2030 and 2050.
Best performing countries.
Mt carbon
30
20
18
14
5
1
0
0
2
1
1
1
1
2
4
1
5
5
1
-3
Iraq
Turkey
Tunisia
Romania
Jordan
Austria
Poland
Oman
Source data: GCI, 2003 and DLR, 2005 & 2006
Yemen
2030
2050
-20
-30
Egypt
10
0
-10
22
21
Model 2 example - Germany
•Year 2000 carbon emissions
= 217,018,500 tonnes
•Of which for electricity production = 93,336,056 tonnes
•Of which other
= 123,682,444 tonnes
•Year 2030 C&C permitted emissions = 58,245,013 tonnes
•Year 2030 DLR predicted emissions = 83,317,339 tonnes
•58,245,013 - 83,317,339 - 123,682,444 = -148,754,769
•nearly 149 Mt of carbon more than allowed!
Model 2 – Results for 2030 and 2050.
Worst performing countries.
Mt carbon
-51 -47
-54
-67 -71
-44 -46
-48 -45
-25 -25
-39
-68
-83 -86
2030
2050
Source data: GCI, 2003 and DLR, 2005 & 2006
Turkey
Spain
Saudi
Arabia
Poland
Iran
Italy
France
United
Kingdom
-133
-149
Germany
-160
-97 -96
Netherlands
-60
-19
Model 2 – Results for 2030 and 2050.
Best performing countries.
Mt carbon
17
-1
-1 -3
-2 -2
-2 -2
-2
-1 -1
-0 -1
Source data: GCI, 2003 and DLR, 2005 & 2006
Yemen
Iceland
Malta
Cyprus
Luxembourg
Jordan
Macedonia
Slovenia
Tunisia
2030
2050
Oman
-160
1
-2 -2
-60
-3 -4
-1 -1
Model 3 example - Germany
Year 2000 carbon emissions
= 217,018,500 tonnes
Of which for electricity production = 93,336,056 tonnes
Of which other
= 123,682,444 tonnes
Year 2030 C&C permitted emissions = 58,245,013 tonnes
Year 2030 DLR predicted emissions = 83,317,339 tonnes
•Year 2000 electricity consumption
•Year 2030 prediction
•Factor increase 654.41 / 571.55
= 571.55 terawatts
= 654.41 terawatts
= 1.144984908
•Other carbon increases by this factor:
•1.144984908 * 123,682,444 = 141,614,532 tonnes
58,245,013 - 83,317,339 - 141,614,532 = -166,686,858
•nearly 167 Mt of carbon more than allowed!
Model 3 – Results for 2030 and 2050.
Worst performing countries.
Mt carbon
-37
-45
-86
-93
-128
-134
-162
-176
-121
-46
-110
-124
-94
-108
-108
-167
-207
-243
Source data: GCI, 2003 and DLR, 2005 & 2006
United
Kingdom
Saudi
Arabia
Iraq
Germany
Turkey
Egypt
Algeria
Iran
-374
Morocco
2030
2050
-300
Yemen
0
-50
-100
-150
-200
-250
-300
-350
-400
Model 3 – Results for 2030 and 2050.
Best performing countries.
Mt carbon
-8 -6
-4 -6
-6 -5
-4 -4
-2 -3
-2 -2
-2 -2
-1 -1
-0 -1
-3
Source data: GCI, 2003 and DLR, 2005 & 2006
Iceland
Malta
Slovenia
Cyprus
Luxembourg
Macedonia
Bulgaria
Bahrain
Croatia
2030
2050
Switzerland
0
-50
-100
-150
-200
-250
-300
-350
-400
-2
Conclusions
CAN THE DESERTEC CONCEPT AND
THE PROPOSED EU-MENA
SUPERGRID FACILITATE
CONTRACTION AND CONVERGENCE
OF CARBON EMISSIONS BETWEEN
THE NATIONS INVOLVED?
Not according to the
models examined.
Total Mt carbon emissions of the power sector
in the MED-CSP study
600
500
Coal
CSP Plants
Geothermal
Wave / Tidal
Photovoltaics
Oil / Gas
Hydropower
Biomass
Wind
BAU
400
300
Too much reliance on fossil fuels
200
100
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Source: DLR, 2006 http://www.dlr.de/tt/Portaldata/41/Resources/
dokumente/institut/system/projects/MED-CSP_Data.xls
Lack of responsible family planning
MENA and African Saharan Nations
What about the rest of the Saharan region
& the rest of Africa?
Source: User created map based on:
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Image:BlankMap-World6.svg
Source: NASA World Wind – Earth Screenshot
http://worldwind.arc.nasa.gov/
Source: NASA World Wind – Venus Screenshot
http://worldwind.arc.nasa.gov/
Coal power plant in Datteln at the Dortmund-Ems-Kanal
Source: Arnoldius. Wikimedia Commons, 2006
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/
Image:Coal_power_plant_Datteln_2.jpg
Fresnel reflector at the Plataforma Solar de Almeriá
Source: DLR. http://www.dlr.de/en/desktopdefault.aspx/
tabid-13/135_read-9671/gallery-1/51_read-1/
Questions?
Bibliography
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Bibliography Continued
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Additional slides
Source: CIA factbook, 2008:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/
reference_maps/pdf/political_world.pdf