Population Chapter 2 Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 1 Oct 2, 2013 Note first extra credit lecture Note means of making a definition Friday quiz on chap 1, Edward, and videos Oct 4, 2013 Last names on assignments If we can’t read it we don’t Some had excellent answers regarding Syria Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 2 Class Based Vernacular West Boundary – Fall 2013 Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 3 Class Based Vernacular West Boundary – Fall 2013 Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 4 Class Based Vernacular West Boundary – Spring 2012 Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 5 ClassFall Based Vernacular West 2012 Class Boundary – Spring 2012 Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 6 World Population Centers - Today Demographics and Migration 7 World Population http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 8 Population by Continent Rank Continent Population 2013 ±% p.a. 2010-2013 7,162,119,000 1.17% — World 1 Asia 4,298,723,000 1.06% 2 Africa 1,110,635,000 2.51% 3 Americas 972,005,000 1.03% 4 Europe 742,452,000 0.10% 5 Oceania 38,304,000 1.47% Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 9 Density Measures Thing on top – Area on bottom Arithmetic D = Pop/Area – Limited value Physiological D = Pop/Arable Area – Pre-Industrial indicator of Carrying Capacity Agricultural D = Farmers/Arable Area – Indicator of Development Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 10 Here size is related to pop not area. Population Cartogram Demographics and Migration 11 DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 12 Today Investigate the Demographic Transition Model Investigate Types of Diagrams used to display and map Demographics Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 13 1. DEFINING GENERAL TERMS AND CONCEPTS Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 14 Basic Terms Crude Birth Rate Crude Death Rate Rate of Natural Increase Infant Mortality Rate Fertility Rate Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 15 Crude Birth Rate CBR Number of live births per year = 3,180 Divided by population = 200,000 Times 1,000 CBR = [(3,180)/200,000] x 1,000 CBR = 15.9 births per 1,000 people Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 16 Crude Birth Rate Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 17 Crude Death Rate CDR Number of deaths per year = 1,860 Divided by population = 200,000 Times 1,000 CDR = [(1,860)/200,000] x 1,000 CDR = 9.3 deaths per 1,000 people Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 18 Crude Death Rate Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 19 Rate of Natural Increase RNI CBR = 15.9 Minus CDR = 9.3 Divided by 10 RNI = (CBR – CDR)/10 = [(15.9 -9.3) /10 = 0.66% growth per year Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 20 Rate of Natural Increase Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 21 Infant Mortality Rate IM number of newborns dying under 0ne year of age = 25 divided by the number of live births during same year = 3,180 Times 1,000 IM = (25/3,180) x 1,000 IM = 7.9 deaths per 1,000 births Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 22 Doubling Time Rate of Nat. Increase Doubling Time 1% 70yrs 2% 35yrs 3% 24yrs USA 0.545 % 128yrs http://www.metamorphosisalpha.com/ias /population.php Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 23 Infant Mortality Rate Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 24 Fertility Rate Average Number of child births Per woman Since a couple is 2 people, need a little more than 2 births to replace the parents 2.1 is considered a stable growth fertility rate in the USA or a Developed Country Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 25 Fertility Rate Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 26 Types of Diagrams Demographic Transition Model Population Pyramid Trend Diagrams – Temporal (over time) – Spatial (over space Survivorship Diagram Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 27 2.DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 28 Birth rate Natural increase Death rate Time Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths. Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 29 Another way of displaying rate of natural increase Curve for changing Rate of Natural Increase during the Demographic Transition Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 30 What is the Demographic Transition Model? The "Demographic Transition" is a model that describes population change over time. – Our main concern has been growth – Now in Industrial Countries it is in decline Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 31 What is the Demographic Transition Model? It is based on an interpretation begun in 1929 by the American demographer Warren Thompson, of the observed changes, or transitions, in birth and death rates in industrialized societies over the past two hundred years or so. Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 32 What is the Demographic Transition Model? The "Demographic Transition" is a model/ a scientific hypothesis – Until the 1990s it seemed to work well with Developed Countries – It worked pretty well with Less Developed Countries Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 33 What is the Demographic Transition Model? The "Demographic Transition" is based on the Scientific Method, – so we are continually “experimenting” with it and improving it Here we will critique it with Italy & Japan Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 34 Impacts and Consequences The next several sets of tables summarizes the measures of impacts of the Transition Four Stages Impacts 1. Very Low Growth 2. High Growth 3. High but Slowing Growth 4. Low Growth Some now see a fifth stage 5. ??? Decline sets in ???? Which is the case in Europe and Japan Factors That Change over the Stages Family Size Infant Mortality & Fertility Rates Family Economics Status of Kids Gender Roles Health Conditions Child Deaths Population Size Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 35 Demographic Transition Model Stage 1 : Pre industrializat ion: Stable population growth Stage 2: Rapid population growth Stage 3: Continued and decreasing population growth Stage 4: Stable low population growth High Birth rates High Birth rates Falling Birth rates Low Birth rates Family Size -- planned Family Planning -The general plan is to have many kids Family Planning -- The general plan is to have many kids Family Planning -The plan is to have fewer kids Trends stabilize with 2 kid families or less Infant Mortality Rate/ Fertility Rate Many children because few survive-- high fertility rate Still many kids because expect few to survive -- high fertility Lower infant mortality rates -less pressure to have children, fertility declines Small family size low fertility rate Children are still useful for work Increased mechanization and industrialization means less need for labor/kids Women are working in great numbers CBR Family Economics Many children are needed to work the land Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 36 Demographic Transition Model Stage 1 : Pre industrializati on: Stable population growth Stage 2: Rapid population growth Stage 3: Continued and decreasing population growth Stage 4: Stable low population growth High Birth rates High Birth rates Falling Birth rates Low Birth rates Status of Kids Children are a sign of virility & status and old age insurance Children are a sign of virility & status and old age insurance Increased desire for material possessions and less desire for large families Kids are an expense & “bling” Gender roles Strong sex roles Strong sex roles Emancipation of women Emancipation of women CBR Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 37 Stage 1 : Pre industrializ ation: Stable population growth Stage 2: Rapid population growth Stage 3: Continued and decreasing population growth Stage 4: Stable low population growth CDR High Death Rates Falling Death Death rates Rates Low Death rates Low Health Conditi ons Poor Diet & Sanitation, Famine and Disease Improved diet, sanitation & medical care Child Deaths High child mortality before age 5 A decrease in Child child mortality mortality very low Slight No change improvement Stable After Copper, Models of Demography, http://www.bized.ac.uk/virtual/dc/copper/theory/th10.htm Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 38 Stage 1 : Pre industrializ ation: Stable population growth Stage 2: Rapid population growth Rate Natural Increase Very Low Growth High Growth Slowing Growth Population Size Small Population Bigger Stage 3: Continued and decreasing population growth Bigger Stage 4: Stable low population growth Low Growth Biggest After Copper, Models of Demography, http://www.bized.ac.uk/virtual/dc/copper/theory/th10.htm Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 39 In Class Exercise Divide into groups of 2 or 3 For the next two diagrams determine the years for the start of Stage 2, 3 and 4 as appropriate Sources http://www.marathon.uwc.edu/geography/demotrans/demtran.htm Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 40 Developed Country Example: Sweden Note that reality is a bit messier than theory. Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 41 Developing Country Example: Mexico This looks more like what we are expecting Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 42 Combination emphasizing changes over time, Sweden takes longer and Sweden starts from lower CBR and CDR Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 43 3. TYPES OF DIAGRAMS Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 44 More Types of Diagrams These diagrams help us to understand the mechanism causing the Demographic Transition Model to operate and its impact – Survivorship Diagram – Stabilization Ratio Diagram – Population Pyramids – Temporal Trends – Spatial Trends Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 45 Survivorship Diagram: Emphasis on longer life expectancy as CDR drops Now 90% live past 55yrs old Less then 10% reached 25yrs old Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 46 Public Health: One of the many past causes of high child mortality rates Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 47 Recent Exponential Growth of World’s Population as countries enter Stage 2 and Stage 3 of the Demographic Transition HIGHLIGHTS IN WORLD POPULATION GROWTH 1 billion in 1804 2 billi on in 1927 (123 years later) 3 billion in 1960 (33 years later) 4 billion in 1974 (14 years later) 5 billion in 1987 (13 years later) Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 7.1 billion in 2013 (23 years later) 48 Total Population of the World by Decade, 1950–2050 http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0762181.html Total world population (mid-year figures) Ten-year growth rate (%) 1950 2,556,000,053 18.9% 1960 3,039,451,023 22.0 1970 3,706,618,163 20.2 1980 4,453,831,714 18.5 1990 5,278,639,789 15.2 2000 6,082,966,429 12.6 6,848,932,929 10.7 7,584,821,144 8.7 8,246,619,341 7.3 8,850,045,889 5.6 9,346,399,468 — Year (historical and projected) The good news – Growth rate is in decline The bad news – we will try to add another 2.5 bill. 2010 2020 Mainly another Billion people in Africa 2030 2040 2050 1 1 1 1 1 Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 49 Stabilization of World’s population is still over a generation away Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 50 Guatemala Stage 2 Population Pyramids • Demonstrate where the population is by age cohort • Also can see Demographic Stage Mexico is going into Stage 3 Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 51 USA – what Stage would you say this is??? Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 52 Stage 4: Sweden Demographic Indicators Birth Rate: 12 per thousand Total fertility rate: 1.8 births Natural increase: 0.1% per year 1990-2000 Age structure: 18% under 15 yrs.age Italy with declining population. Will there be a Stage 5??? Demographic Indicators Birth Rate: 9 per thousand Total fertility rate: 1.2 births Natural increase: -0.1% per year 1990-2000 Age structure: 14% under 15 yrs.age Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 53 Japan, an upside down pyramid in the making? Population collapse??? Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 54 Example of how families adjust to lower infant mortality rates with lower fertility rates. Infant Mortality Rate per 1,000 Result is a decline in CBR This is a temporal trend diagram. Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 55 Spatial Trend Diagram: Countries with higher IM have higher Fertility Rates. Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 56 Comparative Temporal and Spatial Data Diagram What is occuring here? Speculate why. Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 57 Comparison of Development and Wealth to Population Growth Rates across Countries Births are solid line, deaths dashed Note little difference in death rate, large difference in birth rate Result poorer countries grow faster, rich ones little to none, today even declines Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 58 Additional Details on Mexico If you want more information on Mexico click below http://www.un.org/esa/population/me etings/EGMPopAge/Partida_Figures.p df Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 59 Where is the World’s Population Growing? Declining? Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 60 ONE LAST CONCEPT Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 61 Dependency Ratio Ratio of non-working population to working age population Non-Workers are the young and aged retirees – young are usually 15 yrs old and below – retirees are usually 64 yrs old and above Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 62 Dependency Ratio Cape Verde: Mostly Kids Chile: Kids still dominate Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 Denmark: Split between kids & elderly 63 Pakistan’s High Dependency Ratio now and in the future based on lots of kids but few elderly. However note how the young population is expected to stabilize and elderly grow. Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 64 Dependency Ratio Woes A © Copyright 2006, From The Wilderness Publications, www.fromthewilderness.com. All Rights Reserved. This story may NOT be posted on any Internet web site without express written permission. Contact admin@copvcia.com. May be circulated, distributed or transmitted for nonprofit purposes only. rising dependency ratio is also a concern in many countries that are facing aging populations, since it becomes difficult for pension and social security systems to provide to retirees. Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 65 More on Dependency Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 66 Japan showing its high number of dependants to working age population •lots of elderly (nearly black color) • Working age population (purple color) •few kids (dark purple color) Result is high Dependency Ratio Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 67 Malthus – And the Doomsdayers vs. Cornicopians Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 68 Pop. Growth Food Growth Pop. Growth Food Growth Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 69 Click page to load Lester Brown Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 70 Sections 2.9 and 2.10 I will leave these for you to read and reflect on by yourself If you have questions raise them in class or at the voluntary tutorial session Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 71 Declining Birth Rate 1975-2005 Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 72 % Women Using Family Planning Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 73 Type of Family Planning Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 74 Dr. Snow’s study: On which water pump did he remove the handle??? Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 75 Global Aids pattern, note the region with no data 76 Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 – what might this inform us about culture? Diffusion of Aids • Besides contagious diffusion what other type(s) of diffusion are present on this map? Diffusion types a. relocation b. expansion c. hierarchical d. contagious e. stimulus Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 77 VIDEOS TO LOOK AT Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 78 Interesting Videos Hans Rosling on global population growth – TED Lecture http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/hans_rosling_ on_global_population_growth.html Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 79 Interesting Videos Population divide – around the world http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LygyRoxRzyE&feature=rel ated Right leaning Heritage Foundation -- Decline of Europe based on Demographic Collapse (go to minute 8:00) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xlkEYoKCkA&feature=related An Egyptian take: Muslim majority in Europe in 20 years (in Arabic) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CSWLLc6uikE&feature=fv w A historical take: Demographic Transition in Europe; Mortality Decline – Yale University standard lectures http://academicearth.org/lectures/mortality-decline-in-europe Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 80 Let’s Play with the Data Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 http://www.gapminder.org / 81 A FEW STUDY QUESTIONS Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 82 Study Questions: Population The following questions are to help you with the current notes and all the readings in this component of the course 1. a. b. c. d. e. Explain what is meant by each of the following terms: crude birth rate infant mortality rate dependency ratio Crude death rate Rate of Natural Increase 2. Name a country where the death rate has fallen rapidly since WWII. (i) For that country give reasons why the death rate has fallen. (ii) How has this change in death rate affected life expectancy? After: http://www.getthatgrade.co.uk/issue_02/test.htm Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 83 3. The diagram below shows a simplified version of the demographic transition model. (I) What was happening to the population total in Stage 2? (ii) What was happening to the population total in Stage 3? (iii) Name a country which has developed a policy to reduce its birth rate. (iv) Why was this policy needed? (v) Describe the policy. (vi) How successful has the policy been? Mention any problems that the policy has caused, as well as its successes. Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 84 4. Should we be worried about private pensions in the future? What if a growing stock market is tied to a growing population and population declines? Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 85