Introduction
• I have been following Hulbert for 15 yrs
• I have used Hulbert Financial Digest
To select Stock…But not for timing
• Hulbert Newsletters with the highest
return which often have high Beta’s
• My objective is not to buy & hold
Hulbert
• Hulbert says easiest way to loss money, follow Last
Year’s hottest NL.
• Best results – NL’s with good 10–15 yr returns
• Hulbert says that a NL’s can be a good
stock pickers or good timers but not both
• Timing - Pat Finnegan's Stock Chart timing signal
Using signals for Stock Entry and Exsist
Studying News Letters
• Hulbert has been publishing for 33 yrs
• Looking for NL to help select stocks
• Hulbert Financial Digest tracks 189 NL
Out Line of Presentation
• A Newletters can contain one Portfolio or
as many as 9 portfolios
• Hulbert data base:
NL’s monthly return (1 - 9 Portfolios)
Every Portfolio’s (inside NL) monthly return
• Hulbert is reporting monthly on 541
Portfolio’s at this time. NL-P
Hulbert
• Goal is find Newsletters that have
good performance over 15, 10, 5 years
• Some of these top Portfolios suffer major
declines during Financial Crisis & early 2000. It
appears that Portfolio’s with high returns also
have a very high Beta.
• (When the market is going down these Portfolios
go down fast, you lose more than the market
averages).
Raw Return NL-P
• First slide covers YTD July 2013
1/13 - 07/13
• Second slide covers 2012 12 months
1/12 - 12/12
• Third slide reviews last three years
1/10 - 12/12
• Fourth slide will review last five years
1/08 - 12/12
• Fifth slide looks at the last ten years
1/03 – 12/12
• Fifth slide looks at the last ten years
1/98 – 12/12
July YTD 2013 Performance
• Investment Reporter-Higher Risk Stks
26%
• Medical Technology Stk- Trader Portfolio 106%
• Buyback Letter – Health & Bio Tech
39%
• Turnaround Letter – Small-Cap >1B
21%
• Linde Equity Report
39%
1P
ONE YR PERFORMANCE as of 12/2012
by NL-P Annualize
• Investment Reporter-Higher Risk Stks
210%
• Medical Technology Stk- Trader Portfolio
74%
• Buyback Letter – Health & Bio Tech
50%
• Turnaround Letter – Small-Cap >1B
45%
• Linde Equity Report
23%
1P
Three Yr Performance as of 12/12
by NL-P Annualized
• Investment Reporter-Higher Risk Stk
73%
• Medical Technology–Traders Portfolio
21%
• Buyback Letter – Health & Bio – Tech
24%
• Turnaround Letter – Small Cap >$1B
22%
• Linde Equity Report
11%
1P
Five YR as of 12/2012
by NL-P Annualized
Beg 1/08
• Investment Reporter- Higher Risk Stks
17%
• Medical Technology Stk – Trader P
-14%
• Buyback Letter – Health & Bio Tech
•
• Turnaround Letter – Small Cap >1B
8%
• Linde Equity Report
6%
1P
0%
Ten YR as of 12/12
by NL-P Annualized
Beg 1/03
• The Investment Reporter - Higher risk
20%
• Medical Technology- Trader P
20%
• Buyback Letter – Health & Bio
17%
• Turnaround Letter – Small Cap >1B
13%
• Linde Equity Report
9%
1P
Fifteen YRs Jan 1998 - Dec 2012
• The Investment Reporter - Higher risk
8%
• Medical Technology- Trader P
XX
• Buyback Letter – Health & Bio
XX
• Turnaround Letter – Small Cap >1B
10%
• Linde Equity Report
XX
1P
Investment Reporter
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Cost per year
$337 p/yr
Number of Portfolios 13
started 1941
Frequency
Weekly
Best Portfolio 10yrs
P - Higher Risk 20%
P – Conservative stk - 18%
Strategy – Fundamental + L/T view
Average Holding Period
5 years
Number of Securites P-High Risk - 2
Volatility vs Wilshire
11% higher
75% Canadian, 25% US stock
Buyback Letter
•
•
•
•
•
Cost per year
$195 p/yr
Number of Portfolios 9 started 1997
Frequency
Monthly
Portfolios
5P Best Health & Bio Tech
Strategy – Efficient market over looks stk
buyback
• Average Holding Period
11 Months
• Volatility vs Wilshire
5% less
Turnaround Letter
•
•
•
•
•
•
Cost per year
$ 195p/yr
No. of Portfolio
3
started 1987
Strategy– Stk to recover from previous period
Number of Securites –
19
Average Holding period 863 days
Volatility vs Wilshire
70% more
Forbes Special Situation
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Cost per year
$295 p/yr
Number of Portfolios
one
started 2001
Strategy –
Fundamental
Frequency once a month with 1 stk p/mo
Number of Securites –
13
Average Holding period 231 days
Volatility vs Wilshire
70% higher
Linde
•
•
•
•
•
•
Cost per year
$149 p/yr started 2001
Frequency
Monthly with one stk
Strategy–
Stk with high equity returns
Number of Securites
13
Average Holding period 572 days
Volatility vs Wilshire
89% more
NL-P Draw Down
annz 14 Jan 08 thru Feb 09
• Investment Reporter- High Risk
-63%
• Medical Tech – Trader Portfolio
-67%
• Buyback Letter- Health & Bio
-38%
• Turnaround Letter- Small Cap >1B
-72%
• Linde Equity
-53%
• Forbes Special Situation
-25%
Conclusion
• Best performers have high Beta to the market
• Need to have a exit plan for Bear Mkt
• Should consider the Investment Reporter
Published since 1941
• Negative – 75% of allocation Canadian Stocks
• Some Canadian Stocks thinly traded