Photo: Riccardo Venturi
Tuberculosis demand forecast
2014-2016
Brussels, 10 April 2013
Dr Mario Raviglione
Director, Stop TB Department
World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
Funding required
Largest investment needed for DOTS
but, largest increase needed for: rapid diagnostics/labs and MDR-TB
4.7
5
4.9
4.9
US$ billions
TB/HIV excl. ART
4
Rapid diagnostics, related
laboratory strengthening
3
2.5
2
MDR-TB treatment
1
DOTS
0
Available
funds
Baseline
(2011)
(2011)
2014
2015
2016
Funding needs + gaps, by income group
1.0
37 low-income (LICs)
Big relative gap (~60%) in LICs
US$ billions
0.5
0.0
2014
LMICs assumed to increase domestic
funding. IF NOT much bigger gap
Gap 2014-16: $1.3 b
2015
2016
27 upper-middle income (UMICs)
2.5
2.0
Gap 2014-16: $1.4 b
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2014
2015
2016
Total funding gap 2014-16
US$ 4.3 billion
54 lower-middle income (LMICs)
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2014
Gap 2014-16: $1.6 b
2015
2016
Funding gaps, US$ billions by region
Rest of
the World
19%
Asia
22%
2.0
•
Biggest gaps in Africa: 59% of total gap, 2014-16
•
Gap in Asia could be bigger if domestic funding (in
India, Indonesia, Philippines etc.) does not grow at
projected level
•
Smaller gaps in Rest of World but critical to fill for
MDR response and quality TB care, esp. in Europe
Africa
59%
Asia
Africa
Rest of World
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
2014
2015
2016
2014
2015
2016
2014
2015
2016
Impact: numbers treated
Millions treated for TB
Number treated for MDR-TB
240,000
6
5.5
160,000
5
4.5
2014
2015
2016
80,000
2014
2015
 17 million people treated for TB, 2014-2016
 450,000 treated for MDR-TB, 2014-2016
2016
Impact: lives saved
Millions
6.0
Millions
0.25
Lives saved (TB)
Lives saved (MDR-TB)
0.20
5.6
1 million
5.2
0.15
4.8
0.10
4.4
0.05
4.0
0.00
Full funding
Flat lining
Status
Quo
0.2 million
Full funding
Status quo implies:  1.2 million lives lost
 Failure in MDR-response
 Failure to adopt rapid diagnostic tests
Flat lining
Status
Quo
Key messages
1) In the 118 countries eligible to apply for Global Fund financing,
US$14.5 billion is required for TB care and control 2014‒2016
2) There is potential to mobilize US$9.7 billion (67%) from domestic
sources and US$0.6 billion from non-GF donor sources
3) Therefore, the anticipated demand for Global Fund financing is at
least US$4.3 billion 2014–2016, or US$1.4 billion/year
4) MYTH TO DISPEL: «International funding not really needed for TB».
In reality, gaps remain huge especially in low-income countries and
Africa.