FY 2015 & FY 2016
Revenue Projections
Presented by
Chris Nida
NCLM Director of Research & Policy Analysis
Revenue Projections
Revenue Source
Projected,
FY2014 to
FY2015
Projected,
FY2015 to
FY2016
+7.5%
+4%
N/A
<-1%
Electricity Sales Tax
+30%
+2%
Telecommunications Sales Tax
-1.5%
-3%
Piped Natural Gas Sales Tax
-35%
-2%
Solid Waste Disposal Tax
+5.5%
+2.5%
Local Video Programming Revenues
+1.5%
-2%
+5%
+3%
Local Sales Tax
Powell Bill
Beer & Wine Taxes
Caveats
• Projections are rough estimates
• Not assuming ANY Legislative changes to
current revenue structure
• Keep up with weekly Legislative Updates
Sales Tax
• Significant growth statewide
• FY 2016 payments: 10/15/15 to 9/15/16
• Utilize calculation spreadsheet
– Download from email or NCLM.org
– Incorporate county growth rate, and
distribution share
• Change in County distribution?
Powell Bill
• SB 20 reduced motor fuel tax rate from
37.5 cents/gallon to 36 cents/gallon on 4/1
• FY 2016 PB Estimate
– $146.1 Million
– Less than 1% less than FY 2015
• Projected Distributions
– $20.39 per capita
– $1,629.43 per street mile
Electricity/Natural Gas Taxes
• Started FY 2015
• Electricity +17% in Q1, +58% in Q2
(compared to FY2014 Franchise Tax)
• Project +30% for FY 2015, -35% for Gas
• No law change predicted
• Project +2% for FY 2016, -2% for Gas
Other Taxes
• Continued downward trend for Telecomm
• Construction activity increasing solid
waste disposal
• Video upward, contrary to industry trends
• Increased beer & wine sales projections
• Don’t forget to report boundary changes!
Questions?
NCLGBA Summer Conference
July 8th-10th, Shell Island, Wrightsville Beach
$175 for NCLGBA Members, $235 for Non-members
$75 Students & First-Timers
Hotel Rooms $189/night (+Tax)
Speakers
Dr. Jim Johnson
Lee Roberts, NC Budget Office Director
To learn more, visit www.nclgba.org