Potential
impacts of
climate change
on fisheries
trade
Graeme Macfadyen
Impact pathways of climate change
Global
Warming
Physical Changes in oceans,
lakes and rivers,
including…
Impacts varying by region/location
Heat
content and
temperature
Salinity and
stratificatio
n
Ocean
circulation
and
upwelling
Impacts varying by region and adaptive capacity of
fish and ecosystems to respond to the physical
changes above
Physiological,
spawning &
recruitment
processes of
fish
Primary
production
(diatoms and
phytoplankton)
Secondary
production
e.g.
zooplankton
Acidificati
on &
chemical
changes
Sea level rise
& change in
lake levels &
river flows
Sediment
levels
Frequency
and
severity of
extreme
events
Low
frequency
climate
variability
e.g. ENSO
Species
invasion
and
disease
Food web
impacts
Impacts on fish and
ecosystems, including…
Distribution
of fish
(permanent
&
migrations)
Abundanc
e of fish
Phenology
e.g. timing
of natural
phenomen
a
Effects on fishers, livelihoods,
trade, and wider
economy/society
2
Climate change implications for fishers
Direct biophysical changes
• Catch/production volumes and mix
Direct extreme events impacts
• Days at sea lost to poor weather
•Safety
• Loss/damage to assets (vessels, gear, cages)
Indirect impacts; changes in…
• Fishing and aquaculture strategies (location, target species, seasonality, fishing gears,
genetic modification)
• Value-added and profits
• Employment
• Fish as food (availability, stability, access, utilisation of different species)
• Ability of fisheries to act as livelihoods safety net
• Balance of fish/fish farming income compared to income from other sources in households
i.e. fish as a part of rural livelihoods
• Costs required for adaptation
3
Climate change implications for
national economies
Direct impacts; changes in…
•Volume and species mix available
•Damage to onshore coastal fisheries infrastructure
•Coral reef cover
Indirect impacts; changes in…
•Rent generation/extraction by government from sector
•Fish sector exports (balance of payments, forex earnings, competitiveness)
•Fish prices
•Balance of benefits from fishing vs. aquaculture, marine vs. freshwater, and
fisheries sector vs. other sectors
•Fish as food
•Balance of fish for domestic and export trade
•Multiplier effects of fishing and aquaculture
•Displacement and conflict
•Sector investment
•Costs of adaptation
4
Impacts of
climate change
specifically on
fish trade
Impacts of climate change specifically on
trade include:
• Increasing severity of extreme events, sea level rise and
changes in flood regimes
– Variability of supplies due to increasing seasonal and
annual variations in catches
– Major discontinuities in supply due to damage to
infrastructure
• Physical impacts on biomass and location of fish
available for catching and then trade
• Adaptive measures affecting marketing chain (i.e. switch
to different species, to aquaculture)
6
These impacts in turn likely to affect
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Trade volumes and values
Domestic vs export trade
Traded vs subsistence
Balance of marine/inland, wild/farmed
Contribution of fish to total exports
Balance of trade and forex earnings
Value-added and profits from trade
Ability to sell licences to foreign vessels
7
Impacts of climate change on trade:
important caveats
• Climate change just one of many factors affecting
fisheries and related trade.
• Time-scales
• Uncertainties in climate change models, and a lack of
resolution in estimations at country level
• Quantitative projections not possible, but can
describe types of changes and pathways
8
Vulnerability to climate change
Exposure: The nature and
degree to which fisheries
production systems are
exposed to climate change
Sensitivity: Degree to which
national economies are
dependent on fisheries and
therefore sensitive to any
change in the sector
Potential impact: All impacts
that may occur without taking
into account planned
adaptation
Adaptive capacity: Ability or
capacity of a system to
modify or change to cope
with changes in actual or
expected climate stress
= Vulnerability
9
Climate change impacts on fisheries are
particularly important for developing
nations
• The world’s poorest countries are most vulnerable to
climate change
• Poorer countries tend to be more nutritionally and
economically dependent on fish than wealthier
countries
10
Case Studies:
- Kenya
- Maldives
- Solomons
Case studies: What we did
• Presented baseline indicators of dependency,
exposure and adaptive capacity;
• Provided information on current trade; and
• Outlined possible climate change impacts and
consider how the baseline figures, the status quo,
and current trade might be affected by climate
change
12
Trade status in case study countries
presented in terms of:
• Volume and value of
exports
• Main markets
• Main product forms
• Main competitors
• Main stakeholders
• Value-added and
profitability
• Foreign licences
• Trends in above
13
Some key findings
• Trade dependency on fisheries is lower in Kenya than
in Maldives and the Solomon Islands
• High dependencies on fish for both food security and
employment in all 3 countries in specific locations
• Declining reef fisheries important, esp in Maldives
and Sol Is because of importance for food security.
• Critical issue of bait fishery in Maldives on which
whole tuna fishery is based
• Changes to tuna migrations could result in additional
threats to canning operations in Maldives and Sol Is
14
Some key findings, cont’d.
• Any changes to the balance of species in Lake
Victoria would have huge impacts in Kenya
• None of 3 countries in very high risk tropical storm
areas (except South of Sol Is)
• The indicators of adaptive capacity for both Kenya
and the Solomon Islands provide considerable cause
for alarm . Maldives, despite its greater dependency
on fisheries, may not necessarily be more vulnerable
given its greater ability for adaptation
15
What can
countries do?
What can countries do to maintain trade
competitiveness
• Adapt
• Mitigate
both can
– ensure that production levels are maintained or increased
on a sustainable basis for trade, and to assist with
safeguarding of private sector profits; and
– include policy options that are very specifically traderelated, and which provide opportunities that could result
in competitive advantages being gained by countries
implementing them
17
Adaptation at fisher/community level
Impact of climate
change on fisheries
Reactive/
anticipatory
Potential adaptation measures
Access higher value markets/shifting targeted species
Increase effort or fishing power
Reduced yields
Reduce costs to increase efficiency
Diversify livelihoods
Exit the fishery
Diversify livelihood portfolio
Increased variability of fisheries
Engage with insurance schemes
Migration
of
fishing
effort/strategies
and
Change in distribution of fisheries processing/distribution facilities
Exit the fishery, or focus on other ways to maintain
Reduced profitability
profits
Add new or improved physical flood and coastal
defences
Vulnerability of infrastructure Managed retreat/accommodation
and communities to flooding, sea
Rehabilitate infrastructure, design disaster response
level rise and storm surges
Set up early warning systems, education
Increased dangers of fishing
Invest in improved
communications
vessel
stability,
Either
Either
Either
Either
Either
Either
Anticipatory
Either
Either
Anticipatory
Either
Anticipatory
Anticipatory
safety
and
Anticipatory 18
Adaption at national level
• Fisheries management frameworks supportive of
sustainability
• Strategies for infrastructure (ensuring there are safe
havens, and climate proofing developments)
• Disaster preparedness
• Ensuring an enabling business environment
• Support for technological developments facilitating
adaptive measures
19
Adaption at national level, cont’d.
• Manage declining incomes if fish catches fall, and
efforts aimed at diversification
• Aquaculture development
• Ecosystem adaptation (e.g. support for wetlands,
coral reefs, mangroves: provide protection and
breeding/nursery areas)
• Ensure policy coherence
20
Mitigation
• Technical innovations to reduce fuel usage and emissions in
fishing vessel engines
• Promotion of fuel-efficient fishing methods (e.g. static
methods rather than trawling), through differential licensing
conditions and/or decommissioning support;
• Research into support for low impact aquaculture e.g.
herbivorous aquaculture species
• Improvements in building design and handling practices e.g.
through better insulation in ice plants, freezing plants;
• 'Environmentally-friendly' technologies; and
• Mangrove protection/replanting, due to its role in carbon
sequestration
21
Thank you!
Following slides not part of
presentation but held in reserve
for questions
But they can be included in any
hand-outs
Baseline indicators for fisheries &
ecosystems
Country Kenya
Indicator
Aquaculture production, tonnes (2005 1,047
Kenya, 2001 Solomons)
Inland capture fisheries production, 193,600 /
tonnes / $million (2007)
67
Maldives Solomons
0
15
0/
0
0/
0
Domestic marine capture fisheries 6,399
production, tonnes (2007)
Foreign catches in EEZ, tonnes (2002)
n/a
143,597
31,290
n/a
80,123
Marine production as % of total
production
Ratio of aquaculture to capture fisheries
production (%)
Territorial sea area, km2
EEZ area (part comprising continental
shelf waters), km2
Number of marine protected areas (2006)
3.3
100
100
0.5
0
0.1
12,382
116,942
(11,073)
12
125,858
923,322
(34,538)
25
212,294
1,589,477
(36,282)
24
Area of MPAs, km2
Coral reefs (% of global)
2,858
0.19
n/a
2.86
926
1.99
Primary production (mgC·m-²·day -1 )
572
387
267
Relevance/type of
indicator
Dependency
on
production for trade,
incomes
and
livelihoods
Dependency on foreign
licence revenues
Dependency
and
balance of sectors
Dependency
and
balance of species-type
Adaptive capacity
Exposure, dependency
and adaptive capacity
Exposure
through
relationship with fish
production
24
Baseline indicators, for communities
Country Kenya
Maldives
Solomons
Relevance/type of
indicator
Mobile phone subscribers per 1000 134.6
people (2005)
345.3
12.6
Adaptive capacity
and
response
preparedness
to
extreme
weather
events
Fish protein as % of total protein 21.0
supply (2002)
54.8
23.1
Annual food supply per capita from 4.4
fish and fish products, kg (2002)
185.9
39.2
People employed in fisheries and 59,565
aquaculture (2000)
19,108
11,000
13.55%
4.35%
Indicator
Fisheries
and
aquaculture
employment as % of total (2000)
0.35%
Dependency (food
and
employment/incom
es)
25
Baseline indicators for nations
Country
Indicator
Quantity of fish exports, tonnes
(2006)
Quantity of fish exports, $’000s
(2006)
Government revenue from sector, $
millions
(foreign
sources
in
brackets)
Population within 100km from
coast, thousands (2000)
Coastline length, km
Total population in low elevation
coastal zone (and %) (2000)
Highest point above sea level
Secondary school net enrollment
ratio %, (2006)
International tourism receipts $
millions (2006)
www.doingbusiness.org ranking of
181 countries (2009)
Literacy rate, all adults, % (2007)
Kenya
Maldives
Solomons
15,532
113,276
18,201
55,798
133,591
25,661
Relevance/type
indicator
of
Dependency (trade)
1.5-2.0
(0.5-0.6)
n/a
(n/a)
1.5-2.0
(12.0)
7.7
81.1
100.0
1,586
280,327
(1%)
5,199m
43
2,001
290,923
(100%)
2.4m
67
9,880
87,075
(19%)
2,447m
27
1,182
434
8
82
69
89
73.6
97
n/a
Exposure to possible
sea level rise
Adaptive capacity &
potential
employment in other
sectors
26
Baseline indicators for nations, cont’d
Country
Indicator
GDP current in $, per capita /
total (millions) (2006)
Debt as a % of GNI (2006)
% Population living on less or
equal to $1/day
Aid as % of government
expenditure (2006)
Global competitive index
Control of corruption index (-2.5
worst governance, 0 average, 2.5
best governance), (2007)
Government effectiveness index
(-2.5 worst, 0 average, 2.5 best)
Country has a PRSP
Country has a
Fisheries
management
effectiveness
Fisheries mentioned in PRSP
Fisheries mentioned in
Kenya
Maldives Solomons
623 /
22,779
25.7
22.8
3,090 /
927
49.6
n/a
695 /
336
43.4
n/a
22.5
7.5
n/a
93 of 134 n/a
-0.94
-0.78
n/a
-0.63
-0.59
-0.19
-0.82
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
No
No
Red
?
n/a
Yes
Yes
n/a
n/a
Relevance/type of
indicator
Adaptive capacity
(not-fisheries
specific)
Adaptive capacity
(fisheries specific)
27
Policy linkages: climate change and trade
competitiveness
•
•
•
•
Domestic consumption or international trade
‘Food miles’ debate
Trade in ecosystem –based services
UNFCCC and WTO prevent climate change measures
being used as a TBT
• Subsidies and domestic support mechanisms for
adaptation
• CITES listing may result from climate change
• EPAs (GSP, GSP+ or full)
28
Coherence between various fora and
policies
• WTO negotiators need to be aware that the use of
subsidies may be appropriate / necessary
• Those preparing NAPAs and PRSPs must be made
aware of the importance of fisheries
• Eco-labeling and branding to generate benefits to pay
for adaptation
• Sustainability important for adaptation, but also for
new EU IUU regulation
29
Coherence between various fora and
policies, cont’d.
• Negotiators of fisheries access agreements must
ensure they are compatible with sustainability, and
address domestic needs in face of climate change
impacts
• Govs should push at FAO COFI for normative and
field-based initiatives aimed at adaptation
• EPA financing support used for adaptation
• Ensure that CITES listings don’t compromise trade,
while reflecting sustainability needs
30
Funding for climate change adaptation
• Inclusion of fisheries in both NAPAs and PRSPs can
help to ensure fisheries-sector funding
• The GEF operates three funds for UNFCCC: the GEF
Trust Fund; the Least Developed Countries Fund
(LDCF); and the Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF)
• The international carbon market which has emerged
as a result of the Clean Development Mechanism
(CDM)
31
Funding for climate change adaptation
•
•
•
•
•
The Adaption Fund under the Kyoto protocol
Multilateral Environmental Agreements (MEAs)
Multinational and bilateral donors
Foundations and NGOs/INGOs
Private sector:
– Rent collection from industry
– Private sector retailers and consumers in
developed countries
– The insurance market to enhance financial
resilience
32