Headquarters U.S. Air Force
Technology Horizons:
Vision for Air Force Science & Technology
During 2010-2030
Dr. Werner J.A. Dahm
(Former) Chief Scientist of the U.S. Air Force
Air Force Pentagon (4E130)
Washington, D.C.
25 March 2011
ADRC Presentation
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1
Ten Technical Directorates Comprise
the Air Force Research Laboratory
Directed
Energy
Materials &
Manufacturing
AFOSR
Munitions
Space
Vehicles
Sensors
Human
Effectiveness
Air Vehicles
Information
Propulsion
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2
Distribution of Air Force S&T Funding
Among Technical Directorates
$1.9B Direct AFRL funds
+ $2.2B Customer funds
+ 324M Congress adds
$4.5B total AFRL
6.1, 6.2, 6.3
Amounts shown are
$2B/yr Air Force core
funds; does not include
$2B/yr customer funds
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3
U.S. Air Force “Technology Horizons”
SecAF / CSAF Tasking Letter
Terms of Reference (TOR)
4
Overview of Air Force S&T Visions
1
3
6
7
Toward New
Horizons
(1945)
Project
Forecast
(1964)
New World
Vistas
(1995)
Technology
Horizons
(2010)
High-impact studies
2
4
5
Woods Hole
Summer Study
(1958)
New
Horizons II
(1975)
Project
Forecast II
(1986)
Low-impact studies
1940s
1

1950s
2
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
3
4
5
6
2010+
2000s
7
“Technology Horizons” is the next in the succession of major S&T
vision studies conducted at the Headquarters Air Force level that
define key S&T investments over the next 10-20 years
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5
“Technology Horizons” Study Phases
Mar 09
Jun 09
Oct 09
Dec 09
Feb 2010
“Technology Horizons”
2010+
Planning
Phase 1
Working
Phase 2
Working
Phase 3
Working
Phase 4
Implementation
Phase 5
Objectives,
Tasking, and
Organization,
Air, Space, Cyber
Domain Working
Groups
Cross-Domain
Working
Group
Findings,
Conclusions &
Recommendations
Dissemination of
Results and
Implementation
Report and Outbrief
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6
10+10 Technology-to-Capability Process
Cross-Domain
STEP 2
STEP 1
10-Years-Forward
Science & Technology
Projection
Air
10-Years-Forward
Capabilities
Projection
Capabilities
Today
S&T
Advances
in 10 Years
Resulting
Capabilities
in 20 Years
(2010)
(2020)
(2030)
10-Years-Back
Science & Technology
Investment Need
10-Years-Back
Counter-Capability
Technology Need
STEP 4
STEP 3
Future U.S.
Capabilities
Space
Cyber
Potential
Adversary
Capabilities
Cyber
U.S.
CounterCapabilities
Space
Air
Cross-Domain
“10+10 Technology-to-Capability” process gives a deductive 20-year horizon view
7
Air Force S&T Vision for 2010-2030
from “Technology Horizons”
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8
Overarching Themes That Will Vector
Air Force S&T During 2010-2030
9
Potential Capability Areas (1/2)
PCA1:
Inherently Intrusion-Resilient Cyber Systems
PCA2:
Automated Cyber Vulnerability Assessments
PCA3:
Decision-Quality Prediction of Behavior
PCA4:
Augmentation of Human Performance
PCA5:
Constructive Environments for Discovery and Training
PCA6:
Adaptive Flexibly-Autonomous Systems
PCA7:
Frequency-Agile Spectrum Utilization
PCA8:
Dominant Spectrum Warfare Operations
PCA9:
Precision Navigation/Timing in GPS-Denied Environments
PCA10:
Next-Generation High-Bandwidth Secure Communications
PCA11:
Persistent Near-Space Communications Relays
PCA12:
Processing-Enabled Intelligent ISR Sensors
PCA13:
High-Altitude Long-Endurance ISR Airships
PCA14:
Prompt Theater-Range ISR/Strike Systems
PCA15:
Fractionated, Survivable, Remotely-Piloted Systems
Potential Capability Areas (2/2)
PCA16:
Direct Forward Air Delivery and Resupply
PCA17:
Energy-Efficient Partially Buoyant Cargo Airlifters
PCA18:
Fuel-Efficient Hybrid Wing-Body Aircraft
PCA19:
Next-Generation High-Efficiency Turbine Engines
PCA20:
Embedded Diagnostic/Prognostic Subsystems
PCA21:
Penetrating Persistent Long-Range Strike
PCA22:
High-Speed Penetrating Cruise Missile
PCA23:
Hyperprecision Low-Collateral Damage Munitions
PCA24:
Directed Energy for Tactical Strike/Defense
PCA25:
Enhanced Underground Strike with Conventional Munitions
PCA26:
Reusable Airbreathing Access-to-Space Launch
PCA27:
Rapidly Composable Small Satellites
PCA28:
Fractionated/Distributed Space Systems
PCA29:
Persistent Space Situational Awareness
PCA30:
Improved Orbital Conjunction Prediction
Mapping Potential Capability Areas to
Air Force Service Core Functions
Potential Capability Areas (PCA1-PCA30) span over all 12 Air Force Service Core Functions (SCFs)
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Technology Areas Identified for Each
Potential Capability Area (e.g., PCA1)

PCA1: Inherently Intrusion-Resilient Cyber Systems

Ad hoc networks

Autonomous systems

Virtual machine architectures

Autonomous reasoning

Agile hypervisors

Resilient autonomy

Polymorphic networks

Collaborative/cooperative control

Agile networks

Decision support tools

Pseudorandom network recomposition

Automated software generation

Laser communications

Distributed sensing networks

Secure RF links

Sensor data fusion

Frequency-agile RF systems

Signal identification and recognition

Spectral mutability

Cyber offense

Dynamic spectrum access

Cyber defense

Quantum key distribution

Cyber resilience

Complex adaptive distributed networks

Advanced computing architectures

Complex adaptive systems

Complex environment visualization

Complex system dynamics

Massive analytics

V&V for complex adaptive systems

Automated reasoning and learning
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Dramatically Increased Use of Highly
Adaptable Autonomous Systems

Capability increases, manpower efficiencies,
and cost reductions are possible through far
greater use of autonomous systems

Increase in degree of autonomy and range of
systems and processes where autonomous
reasoning and control can be applied

Adaptive autonomy can offer time-domain
operational advantages over adversaries
using human planning and decision loops

S&T to establish “certifiable” trust in highly
adaptible autonomous systems is a key to
enabling this transformation

Potential adversaries may gain benefits from
fielding such systems without any burden of
establishing certifiable “trust in autonomy”

As one of the greatest beneficiaries of such
autonomous systems, the Air Force must lead
in developing the underlying S&T basis
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14
High-Altitude Long-Endurance (HALE)
Unconventional Air Vehicle Systems

New unmanned aircraft systems (VULTURE)
and airships (ISIS) can remain aloft for years

Delicate lightweight structures can survive
low-altitude winds if launch can be chosen

Enabled by solar cells powering lightweight
batteries or regenerative fuel cell systems

Large airships containing football field size
radars give extreme resolution/persistence
DARPA VULTURE HALE Aircraft Concept
DARPA VULTURE HALE Aircraft Concept
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15
Augmentation of Human Performance
to Better Match Users With Technology

Natural human capacities are becoming
increasingly mismatched to data volumes,
processing capabilities, and decision speeds
that are offered or demanded by technology

S&T to augment human performance will be
needed to gain benefits of new technologies

May come from increased use of autonomous
systems, improved man-machine interfaces,
or direct augmentation of humans
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16
Technologies to Enable Freedom of
Operations in Contested Environments

S&T advances are needed in three key areas
to enable increased freedom of operations in
contested or denied environments

Basic and early applied research are needed
to support development of these capabilities

Technologies for increased cyber resilience


Technologies to augment or supplant PNT in
GPS-denied environments


e.g., massive virtualization, highly
polymorphic networks, agile hypervisors
e.g., cold-atom (Bose-Einstein condensate)
INS systems, chip-scale atomic clocks
Technologies to support dominance in
electromagnetic spectrum warfare

e.g., dynamic spectrum access, spectral
mutability, advanced RF apertures
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17
Processing-Enabled Intelligent Sensors
Fractionated Composable UAV Systems
Processing-Enabled Intelligent ISR Sensors

Current massive data flow from ISR platforms
is creating tremendous PED manpower need

Full-motion video (FMV) analysis is growing;
even more with Gorgon State and ARGUS-IS

Technologies needed to enable cueing-level
processing before data leaves the sensor

UAV system fractionation is a relatively new
architecture enabled by technology advances

Allows complete system to be separated into
functional elements cooperating as a system

Common platform having element-specific
payload enabled lower cost and attritability

Permits mission-specific composition of
systems from lower-cost common elements

Low levels of redundancy among elements
dramatically increases system survivability
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Other Top Potential Capability Areas
PCA19: Next-Generation High-Efficiency Turbine Engines
PCA24: Directed Energy for Tactical Strike/Defense
PCA27: Rapidly Composable Small Satellites
PCA30: Persistent Space Situational Awareness
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Closing Remarks & Implementation
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