THE FUTURE AND SAFETY:
NO EASY ROAD
ASSE Symposium
Energize Your Safety Management Program
Frank White
President
ORCHSE Strategies, LLC
Denver, Colorado
October 23-24, 2014
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Introduction: Extraordinary Global Challenges
The Global Landscape of Workplace Injury and Illness
The Workforce of the Future
The Jobs of the Future
The Work Relationships of the Future
Stressed Out At Work?
Six Future Focus Issues From the EU
The Professional Resources of the Future
Future U.S. Safety and Health Policy: Leader or
Laggard?
• The Tools of the Future
• Systems Questions For Your Consideration
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2014
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Threat of New and Reemerging Diseases
Sustainable Development and Climate Change
Ethical Market Economies
Clean Water
INTRODUCTION:
EXTRAORDINARY
Rich-Poor Gap
GLOBAL
Peace and Conflict
CHALLENGES
Changing Status of Women
Global Convergence of IT
Growing Energy Demands
Population Growth and Resources
www.milleniumproject.org
October 23,
2014
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Challenges in a “VUCA World”
• Volatility
– The challenge is unexpected or unstable
and may be of unknown duration
• Uncertainty
– Unpredictability of issues and events
with info about past and present less useful
• Complexity
– Multiple, interconnected parts and variables, difficult to sort
• Ambiguity
– Lack of precedents; causal relationships unclear
• For military, business and other leaders, the doctrine underscores
the importance of strategic decision-making, readiness planning,
risk management, and situational problem-solving.
Courtesy of John Howard; Forbes 10/8/13
October 23,
2014
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The Ebola Crisis
• Current outbreak in west Africa (first cases notified in
March 2014) is the largest and most complex Ebola
outbreak since the Ebola virus was first discovered in
1976.
• There have been more cases (8399) and deaths (4033)
in this outbreak than all others combined (as of 10/12).
• Starting in Guinea then spreading across land borders
to Sierra Leone and Liberia, by air to Nigeria, and by
land to Senegal.
• Now 2 in the U.S, with a strong likelihood of future
cases in U.K., France, Spain, Belgium, etc.
WHO; CDC October 2014
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Ebola’s Unprecedented Rise
• If conditions continue without scale-up of interventions,
cases will continue to double approximately every 20
days, and the number of cases in West Africa will
rapidly reach extraordinary levels (potentially 1.4
million by end of January)
• “For the medium term, at least, we must face the
possibility that [Ebola] will become endemic among the
human population of West Africa, a prospect that has
never previously been contemplated”
MMWR; New England Journal of Medicine - September 2014
October 23,
2014
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Global Worker Deaths and Diseases
• World Safety Congress, August 26, 2014:
– “Work claims more victims around the globe than does war:
an estimated 2.3 million workers die every year from
occupational accidents and diseases,” said ILO DirectorGeneral Guy Ryder
– 350,000 are fatal incidents and close to 2 million are workrelated diseases.
– In addition, a conservative estimate of 300 million serious
(4 days away from work) work-related injuries a year
– “Ebola and the tragedies it is causing are in the daily
headlines – which is right. But work-related deaths are not.
So, the task ahead is to establish a permanent culture of
consciousness”
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2014
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An Elusive Challenge
• For 40 years, many of us in the US have asked ourselves:
– “Why doesn’t the toll of workplace injuries, illnesses
and fatalities in the U.S. and many countries abroad
resonate with the general public and spur action in
the same way that other public health and
environmental issues do?”
• Many socio-cultural, economic and political reasons too
lengthy and complex to discuss today
• But, despite the considerable barriers, the safety and
health professions should not shrink from taking up
the ILO Director-General’s challenge to find ways to
establish that permanent culture of public
consciousness about workplace injury and illness
around the globe
October 23,
2014
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THE GLOBAL LANDSCAPE
OF WORKPLACE INJURY
AND ILLNESS
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2014
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Global Estimates of Fatal Incidents
Region
Fatal Incidents
High Income Nations (US, Can,
11 396
Western EU, Aust, NZ, Japan, S Korea)
Africa
Americas
Eastern Mediterranean
Eastern Europe
Southeast Asia
Western Pacific
TOTAL
59 301
18 433
19 229
14 609
114 732
115 069
352 769
ILO – 2013; WHO Regions; World Bank Income Categories
October 23,
2014
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Major Global Fatal Incidents
Some major factory fires and explosions, 2011–2013
Date
Location
Industry
Incident type
Number of
deaths
13 Apr. 2013
Texas, USA
Fertilizers
Explosion
15 (160 injured)
24 Nov. 2012
Dhaka,
Bangladesh
Garment making
Fire
112
11 Sep. 2012
Karachi, Pakistan
Garment making
Fire
289
11 Sep. 2012
Yegoryevsk,
Russia
Garment making
Fire
14
11 Sep. 2012
Lahore, Pakistan
Shoe making
Fire
25
5 Sep. 2012
Sivakasi, India
Firework
Explosion
37
(60 injured)
25 Aug. 2012
Paraguaná,
Venezuela
Refinery
Explosion
48 (151 injured)
6 May 2012
Rayong, Thailand
Synthetic rubber
Explosion
12 (100 injured)
20 Nov. 2011
Shandong, China
Chemicals
Explosion
14
17 Oct. 2011
Raidighi, India
Firework
Fire
42
(11 injured)
ILO – 2014
October 23,
2014
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A Modern Tragedy
Rana Plaza – Greater Dhaka, Bangladesh – April 2013
1129 Deaths; 2500 Injured
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2014
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Efforts at Reform
• 3 separate initiatives
– The Accord, which involves more than 150 largely European
brands;
– The Alliance, set up by US brands; and
– A joint effort by the UN and the Bangladesh government
• All three are meant to bring all the Bangladesh factories into a
system of auditing and inspection to enforce agreed standards.
• Many brands have refused to become involved and the initiatives
collectively have many flaws.
• Nonetheless, international trade unionists say, taken together
the package represents "an unprecedented chance to put all this
right.”
NYT April 2014; The Guardian April 2014; ILO August 2014
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2014
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Death in the Mines – An Ongoing Struggle
• China leads the world in coal-mining fatalities.
– The government said 1,049 people were killed or missing in
coal-mining accidents in 2013
– In comparison, 52 people were killed over the last decade
in U.S. coal-mining disasters
– Accidents at China's coal mines have caused more than
33,000 deaths in the last decade, according to data from
the State Administration of Coal Mine Safety
• Yet, heightened official attention to safety regulations
and efforts to consolidate smaller coal mines under
state-owned operations have cut the death toll each
year since 2000
WSJ 4/18/14; NYT 9/3/12
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2014
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Global Estimates of Fatal Occupational Disease
High
Income
Communi
cable
Diseases
Americas
Eastern
Med
Eastern
Europe
SE Asia
Western
Pac
WORLD
85 740
6 972
19 964
4 542
85 743
16 525
230 517
Noncommunic
able
Diseases
376 451 100 809
85 729
104 777
205 674
408 731
466 574
1 748 745
Malignant
neoplasms
211 890
30 078
43 931
24 734
56 527
94 834
204 215
666 210
Neuropsychiatric
conditions
22 565
3 533
2 945
2 496
1 009
6 505
3 933
42 986
Circulatory
diseases
110 399
54 188
46 232
46 563
139 181
223 872
207 025
827 460
Respirator
y diseases
24 964
7 128
7 649
9 444
5 364
68 419
46 688
169 657
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2014
11 031
Africa
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Often-Hidden Toll of Disease
• Even though fatal diseases are estimated to account
for about 85 per cent of all work-related fatalities,
more than half of all countries do not provide official
statistics for occupational diseases.
• In terms of concerted government and stakeholder
action, occupational disease remains largely invisible
compared to fatal incidents.
• Woeful lack of credible data makes occupational
diseases present a particular challenge
• Even in the U.S., there is much doubt about the
validity of the estimates of work-related disease
• Public ignorance, low prioritization and the underreporting beget a “cycle of neglect”
ILO 2013
October 23,
2014
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THE WORKFORCE OF
THE FUTURE
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2014
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Growth in the Working-Age Population
1970-2010
200%
2010-2050
150%
100%
50%
0%
-50%
Mexico Brazil India
China South Australia Canada
US Netherlands
Spain France UK Russia Italy
Japan Germany
Korea
Deloitte Research/UN Population Division (http://esa.un.org/unpp/)
October 23,
2014
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Job Growth Patterns by Age
Percent Growth in U.S. Workforce by Age:
2000-2020
80%
73%
60%
54%
40%
20%
7%
8%
7%
3%
0%
-10%
-20%
under 14
15-24
1. Few younger
workers entering
U.S. Census Bureau
October 23,
2014
25-34
35-44
45-55
Age of Workers
2. Declining number of
mid-career workers
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55-64
65+
3. Rapid growth of
over-55 workers
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All Hail the “Chronologically Gifted”
John Howard
• By 2020, workers age 55+ will account for 25% of the
U.S. labor force
– Up from just 13% in 2000
• Number of workers 55+ is projected to grow 5.5 times
the rate of growth in the overall labor force
• BLS projects that by 2020:
– 28% of women age 65-74 will be working, up from 15% in
2000, and
– 35% of men age 65-74 will be working, up from 25% in 2000.
Stanford Center on Longevity – July 2013
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2014
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Sectors With Oldest and Youngest Workers
Industry
Median Age
Rank
Median Age
% Workers 45+
Funeral Homes,
Crematories
1
52
66
Metalworking
machinery mfg
17
48.9
59.4
Aircraft and parts mfg
22
27
48.3
48
60.5
59.3
Iron and steel mills
and steel product mfg
70
45.3
47.9
Radio, TV, and
computer stores
220
34
26.6
Restaurants and other
food services
226
28.6
20.2
Pulp, paper mills
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey 2012
October 23,
2014
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Aging Workforce: Bad News/Good News
• Possible Limitations
– Cognitive Limitations
– Chronic Medical Conditions
– Diminishing Physical Capacity
• Compensating Factors
–
–
–
–
NIOSH
Even Attitude
Experience and Judgment
Flexibility
Interest in Learning
Hispanic Population Growth
• The US civilian population of Hispanics:
– 23.9 million in 2000
– 46 million in 2020
• The Hispanic share of the total civilian population will
have increased from:
– 11.3 percent in 2000 to
– 17.5 percent in 2020 to
– 30 percent in 2050
• In 2013, 49.7% of the more than 22 million employed
Hispanics were immigrants, down sharply from the
pre-recession peak of 56.1% in 2007
BLS; Pew Research – 2014; BLS Monthly Labor Review January 2012
October 23,
2014
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Hispanic Share of Workforce Growth
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THE JOBS OF THE
FUTURE
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2014
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Where US Jobs Will Be
• The health care and social assistance sector will
account for almost one-third of the projected job
growth from 2012 to 2022.
• Employment in the construction sector is expected to
see a large increase, while still not reaching
prerecession levels.
• Manufacturing is projected to experience a slight
decline in employment over the projection period.
BLS, Monthly Labor Review December 2013
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2014
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Future Job Growth Occupations
• Occupations with the highest projected numeric change in
employment – 2012-22 (BLS 1/9/14)
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
October 23,
2014
Personal care aides
580,800
Registered nurses
526,800
Retail salespersons
434,700
Home health aides
424,200
Combined food preparation and serving workers,
including fast food
421,900
Nursing assistants
312,200
Secretaries and administrative assistants,
except legal, medical, and executive
307,800
Customer service representatives
298,700
Janitors and cleaners, except maids
and housekeeping cleaners
280,000
Construction laborers
259,800
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Job Replacement Needs
• Between 2010-2020, an anticipated 33.7 million job
replacement needs – 77% in the following sectors:
•
SECTOR
PROJECTED JOBS
Service*
7.7 million
Office and Admin Support
4.9 million
Sales and Related
4.6 million
Education, Legal, Community Service,
Arts, Media
3.4 million
Management, Business, Financial
3.2 million
Transportation & Material Moving
2.3 million
Production Occupations projected to replace 1.7 million jobs
*Service includes healthcare support occupations, protective service workers,
food preparation and related occupations, cleaning and maintenance
occupations, and personal care occupations. BLS
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2014
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THE WORK
RELATIONSHIPS
OF THE FUTURE
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2014
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Growth of
Contingent/Temporary/Contract Jobs
• The use of “contingent workers”, as defined by BLS, by
US employers has soared over the past two decades
– In 1990, there were about 1.1 million such workers;
– As of August 2012, the number was 2.54 million, down
slightly from pre-recession levels, but climbing.
– That’s roughly 2% of the U.S. workforce; but could be up to
4%, according to BLS
• BLS defines contingent employees as "those who do not have an
implicit or explicit contract for ongoing employment.”
BLS
October 23,
2014
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Definitional Uncertainties
• BLS defines 4 other categories of “alternative work
arrangements,” including:
–
–
–
–
10.3 million independent contractors (7.4% of total employment)
2.5 million on-call workers (1.8 %)
1.2 million temporary help agency workers (0.9%)
800,000 workers provided by contract firms (0.6%)
• Estimates of the total number of US “contingent workers”
range widely, depending on how they are defined.
• Recent data suggest that roughly 20-30 percent, and
perhaps up to 40 percent, of American workers are in
“freelance, temporary, contract, part-time, or other nonstandard” jobs.
BLS – 2005; WSJ; CBS Moneywatch
October 23,
2014
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A Global Perspective
• The Manpower Group’s Contingent Workforce Index (CWI)
measures the relative ease of sourcing, hiring and retaining a
contingent workforce in competing labor markets around the
world
• The CWI compiles over 50 key data points around the availability,
cost, regulation and productivity of each country’s contingent
workforce
• Hong Kong is the highest ranked for contingent workforce
engagement, followed closely by the United States and China
• The United States stands out for having a substantially large
contingent workforce, at more than 9 million workers, minimal
regulatory impact, and high productivity.
Manpower Group - 2014
October 23,
2014
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A Fundamental Shift?
• "What's changed in the last 20 years is that there's been:
– an unraveling of job security in the labor market,
– a diminishment of benefit packages and
– a deterioration of stable, reliable wages and promotion
pathways," said Katherine Stone, a law professor and labor
specialist at UCLA
• "There's been a really fundamental shift in the nature of
employment -- it's a sea change”
• “Whether you're talking about the expanded use of shortterm employees, temporary workers, project workers,
contractors or on-call workers, the use of workers who don't
have regular jobs has increased a lot”
CBS MONEYWATCH, March 7, 2013
October 23,
2014
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A Strategic Business Fit
• Over the last decade, companies have changed how
they tap into the “extended workforce”
• Initially, a tactical response to an immediate need
• But then they began making this workforce a key
component of corporate strategy
• This shift has enabled organizations to achieve two of
the most sought-after competitive capabilities:
– Agility in the face of a highly turbulent business
environment, and
– Access to high-performing, highly skilled talent
Accenture Institute for High Performance 2013
October 23,
2014
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Specialization and Mobility
• Increased specialization in the workplace and heavy
reliance on project work in knowledge-based
organizations mean that:
– Highly-educated specialists and professionals are serving as
contingent workers
– E.g., engineer, information technologist, healthcare worker and
accounting professional
• Almost a third of contingent workers are in managerial
and supervisory roles
• The new extended workforce is also increasingly mobile,
global and borderless, thanks to technology
advancements
Accenture Institute for High Performance 2013; Randstad Workforce360 Study, 2012
October 23,
2014
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A New Business Model
• The new forms of work organization that have emerged in the shift
from an industrial mass production to a knowledgeintensive/service-based society include:
– Move away from the single enterprise with full-time employees
and a recognizable, enduring hierarchy
– An increase in decentralization in organizations with a low
‘human factor orientation’ such as in lean production
– An increase in network-based organizations - companies have
retreated to their core competencies and outsourced other
functions and formed chains of suppliers and subcontractors
– Companies will increasingly be comprised of formal employees
and an ever-shifting global network of contractors, temporary
staff, business partners, outsourcing providers
Vulnerable Workers – Health, Safety and Well-being, Sargeant, Giovannone, 2011; EU
Agency for Safety and Health at Work 2002; The Rise of the Extended Workforce,
Accenture, 2013
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2014
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Contingent Work – Safety Vulnerabilities
• Studies reveal 3 sets of factors appearing to link
“precarious employment” with increased safety risks:
– First, economic and reward systems result in greater economic
pressure in terms of competition for jobs as well as pressure to
retain a job; more likely to ignore and less likely to report risks
– Secondly, workers are liable to be less experienced and
performing unfamiliar tasks; similarly, they are likely to be less
familiar with OSH rules
– Thirdly, there is an increased likelihood of regulatory failure OSH regulatory regimes are designed to address full-time and
secure workers in large workplaces; enforcement processes
encounter hurdles such as identifying those with legal
responsibility in multiemployer worksites.
Quinlan, M., Mayhew, C. and Bohle, P. (2000); Quinlan and Bohle (2004)
October 23,
2014
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STRESSED OUT AT WORK?
NEED A VACATION?
FUGETABOUTIT!
October 23,
2014
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The American Way
• Richard Branson, CEO of Branson's Virgin Group, just announced
that employees can take unlimited vacation if they work at one of
the main offices
– "Treat people as human beings, give them that flexibility and I
don't think they'll abuse it. And they'll get the job done,"
Branson told CNN
– "The amount of holidays people are given in the States is
dreadful. How can you find time to get to know your children
if you're working with very very little holiday time?”
• The sum of the average paid vacation and paid holidays provided
to workers in the US private sector ― 16 in total ― would not
meet even the minimum required by law in 19 other rich
countries
• On average, U.S. employees with paid time off left 3.2 days of
unused time on the table in 2013
October 23,
2014
Center for Economic and Policy Research 2013; US Travel Association; Oxford
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Economics
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Work Stress High and On the Rise
• The 2013 annual Work Stress Survey, conducted by Harris
Interactive on behalf of Everest College, polled 1,019 employed
Americans.
• The results showed a marked increase in stress from the 2012
survey, which found that 73 percent of Americans were stressed at
work. In 2013, that number jumped to 83 percent.
• Poor compensation and an unreasonable workload were tied as
the No. 1 stressors, with 14 percent of workers reporting low
paychecks as their main source of work-related stress. 14 percent
also ranked a heavy workload as the top stressor -- up from 9
percent last year.
• In terms of age, the Baby Boomer generation and older Americans
were the least likely to be affected by work stress, with 38 percent
of American workers age 65 or older reporting that nothing about
their job stresses them out
October 23,
2014
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Increased Risks
• Work stress has been identified as a risk factor for
hypertension, diabetes, upper extremity musculoskeletal back
problems, and cardiovascular disease
• High demands and low decision control have predicted heart disease in
white collar workers (Kuper & Marmot, 2003)
• Job strain has been shown to increase blood pressure in men of low
socioeconomic status (Landsbergis, Schnall, Pickering, Warren, &
Schwartz, 2003)
• Exposure to cumulative job strain in white collar workers revealed modest
increases in systolic blood pressure (Guimont, 2006)
• Fatigue and sleep deprivation are correlated to mandatory and voluntary
overtime and are also associated with work-related accidents in blue
collar workers (Cochrane, 2001; Barger et al., 2005)
American Psychological Ass’n
October 23,
2014
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The Top Workforce Risk
A 2013/2014 Towers Watson Staying@Work Survey was completed by
892 employers in North America, Latin America, Europe and Asia:
October 23,
2014
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The EU Takes Action
• 2014 EU Campaign:
– Healthy Workplaces Manage Stress: Managing
Stress and Psychosocial Risks at Work
– Over half of European workers report that stress is
common in their workplace.
– Stress is thought to contribute to about half of all
lost working days, along with other psychosocial
risks.
– Around 4 in 10 workers think that stress is not
handled well in their workplace.
October 23,
2014
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Total Worker HealthTM
Comprehensive organizational
strategy that:
Integrates occupational health
protection with wellness promotion
To advance worker well-being in life
and work.
Total Worker Health
• Today, emerging evidence recognizes that both work-related
factors and health factors beyond the workplace jointly
contribute to many safety and health problems that confront
today’s workers and their families.
– Health protection programs have focused squarely on work,
reducing worker exposures to risk factors arising in the work
environment itself.
– And most workplace health promotion programs have
focused exclusively on lifestyle factors off-the-job that place
workers at risk.
– A growing body of science supports the effectiveness of
combining these efforts through workplace interventions
that integrate health protection and health promotion
programs
CDC; NIOSH
October 23,
2014
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SIX FUTURE FOCUS ISSUES
FROM THE EU
October 23,
2014
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EU Study Identifies Key OSH Focus Areas
• New EU scoping study on “new and emerging OSH risks
and challenges” identifies 6 key areas of focus:
1) Impact of financial crisis on the nature of work and OSH
• Changes in the nature of work and structure within existing firms,
2) Potential impact of information technology on work and OSH
• how technology enables organizations to structure themselves and to
organize work
3) Impact of globalization on work and OSH
• Work pressures are greater than they were 10-15 years ago due to
organizations adopting strategies to achieve better, faster, cheaper and
more efficient production
European Agency for Safety and Health at Work, Risk Observatory - 9/11/14
October 23,
2014
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EU Scoping Study (con’d)
4) Impact of changing locations of work on OSH
• Rise of telework and remote working, where public spaces, homes,
and temporary office environments are used as work environments
5) Trends in Human Resource practices affecting how workers
are managed affecting worker well-being
• Trend towards developing leaner, flatter management structures
affecting the organization of work and the design of jobs, giving
individual workers greater autonomy and responsibility, but also
added work pressures
• Rise in non-standard employment contracts, outsourced or
subcontracted services, and home/remote working arrangements
6) Service sector growth
• OSH impacts on low-skilled, low-waged occupations made up of
workers who deliver operational and process transactional aspects
of such services
October 23,
2014
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THE PROFESSIONAL
RESOURCES OF THE
FUTURE
October 23,
2014
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Health and Safety Specialist Job Outlook
• Employment of occupational health and safety specialists is
projected to grow 7 percent from 2012 to 2022, slower than the
average for all occupations (11 percent) and than for “Other
healthcare practitioners and technical occupations” (13 percent)
Employment 2012
62,900
Projected 2022
67,100
Change
Percent
Numeric
7
4,200
• “Despite slower than average employment growth, job
opportunities for individuals with advanced degrees are expected
to be good. Candidates with certification may enjoy more job
opportunities. In addition, a large number of currently practicing
occupational health and safety specialists are expected to retire
over the coming decade, creating opportunities for new
specialists.” BLS – January, 2014
October 23,
2014
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A Closer Look at Prospects
• 2012 BLS safety and health specialist job projections
in 2022 by industry
Industry Sector
Percent of
Occupation
2012
Construction
5.6
30
Manufacturing
16.6
- 6.4
Wholesale Trade
1.5
10
.2
9.3
Transportation, Warehousing
3.7
3.7
Educational (State, Local, Private)
5.1
11.8
Health Care, Social Assistance
5.5
21.5
Government
32
-2.7
Retail Trade
October 23,
2014
Projected
Percent
Change 2022
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53
FUTURE U.S. SAFETY AND
HEALTH POLICY:
LEADER OR LAGGARD?
October 23,
2014
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The US Congress
Ted Kennedy, Robert Byrd, Jim Jeffords, Lynn
Woolsey, Mike Enzi
Lions of the
Senate and
House
Tom Harkin – Retiring
2014
George Miller – Retiring
2014
For 30+ years, fierce crusaders for workers and worker safety
Where are the future congressional safety leaders?
October 23,
2014
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The Essential Safety Advocate
• Organized Labor – The one relentless, effective
“stakeholder”-champion for worker safety and health
in Congress, OSHA, NIOSH, the States over the last 50
years
– Seminario, Frumin, Wright, Mirer, Nowell, Borwegan and
their predecessors
• In the face of waning membership and resources, can
the next generation of labor leaders sustain their
historical level of influence?
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2014
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Alt Labor:
The Non-Union Workers Movement
• With unions in decline, new kinds of worker collectives
springing up to fight for better pay and conditions
• Growth of community-based worker organizing
projects, particularly in immigrant communities:
– 1992—5
– 2003—137
– 2012—214
John Howard
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2014
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OSHA’s Prospects
• OSHA – Can the agency any longer able to translate
Bold Ideas and Innovative Approaches into regulatory,
enforcement or other action?
– 14 Carcinogens, Lead, Cotton Dust, Hearing Conservation,
Hazard Communication, Voluntary Protection Program,
Egregious Penalty Policy, Process Safety Management
– Even the bold failures had an impact – Cancer Policy, PELs,
Ergonomics, Cooperative Compliance Program (Maine 200)
• Or does the political environment of increasing
partisanship and stalemate forebode a future where
guidelines, advisories and limited enforcement
initiatives constitute the best policy outcomes OSHA
can muster?
October 23,
2014
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OSHA’s Prospects (con’d)
• Not just that the regulatory process is broken; we are
(and have been for a decade) living in a post-regulatory
political environment; no signs of change
• True in much of EU as well
• OSHA can still be effective – strategic, targeted nonregulatory initiatives can have an impact
– More risk-based targeting
– Updated Safety and Health Program Guidelines
– Re-institute a (legal) Cooperative Compliance Program based
on management system incentives
– A multi-pronged OEL initiative
October 23,
2014
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“Doing OSHA”
• So what? Does OSHA really matter? Aren’t we as safety
professional at the point where we should be “doing safety” instead
of “doing OSHA” anyway?
• Ignores or disregards the positive impact of public policy actions on
worker safety by the agencies charged with contributing to the
prevention of injuries and illnesses
• My almost unfailing observation over 35+ years of working with and
in industry is that a major factor in corporate leadership’s attention
to, decision-making about, and allocation of sources to, safety
(especially in challenging economic times) is often the perceived
vigor with which the federal and state regulators are taking action
to address serious safety and health issues
• True with enterprises of all sizes
• WE ALL HAVE A STAKE IN AN PROACTIVE, EFFECTIVE OSHA
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2014
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THE TOOLS OF THE
FUTURE
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2014
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Do We Have the Tools?
• The historical underpinnings
– Heinrich and the Hierarchy – batting .500 or .333?
• The importance of the Hierarchy of Controls is, if
anything, becoming more firmly rooted
• Heinrich is, of course, 2-pronged: 2/10/88 and 1/29/300
– The former, with its causation focus on “unsafe acts of
persons” is being widely deconstructed, denigrated and
debunked
– The Pyramid, with its undifferentiated focus on all unsafe
acts/near-misses, is today being refined to focus more
squarely on the risks that represent “precursers” for
potentially serious/fatal incidents
October 23,
2014
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PROMISING NEWER APPROACHES TO
MANAGING RISK/SAFETY
• If Plan-Do-Check-Act Management Systems have
become the underpinning for managing safety, several
interrelated supplementary or complementary
approaches will help refine and improve performance:
– James Reason’s “swiss cheese” model – multiple defensive
layers to reduce the likelihood of an incident
– Applying “Just Culture” principles to safety management and
incident reviews – Sydney Dekker
– Applying Human and Organizational Performance techniques
and “learning teams” in risk reduction efforts – Todd Conklin
– Emulating characteristics of High Reliability Organizations –
Earl Carnes, Karl Weick, Kathleen Sutcliffe
October 23,
2014
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FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION:
WILL OUR OHS MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS
BE ADAPTABLE TO AND EFFECTIVE FOR THE
WORKFORCE, WORKPLACES, WORK
ORGANIZATIONS AND SAFETY CHALLENGES
OF THE FUTURE?
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2014
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• What can/must we do to best assure that OHSMSs:
– Will be “VUCA-ready” to meet the unexpected and unpredictable
risks of the future?
– Will be effective in identifying and addressing the often-hidden,
ignored and misunderstood risks of occupational illness?
– Will be effective in protecting an increasingly “mature” and
diverse workforce?
– Will be embraced by and effectively applied in the rising service
sectors of the economy not traditionally safety-focused and that
have not traditionally relied on safety professionals?
– Will recognize the important role that often hidden factors such
as stress play in contributing to risk
– Will be effectively applied to the increasing numbers of workers
only loosely or temporarily tied to the organization?
• How can we help OSHA be an effective advocate for
OHSMSs and risk-based compliance efforts?
October 23,
2014
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THANK YOU!
ORCHSE STRATEGIES, LLC
THE PREMIER GLOBAL FAMILY OF
HEALTH, SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL NETWORKS
FOR INDUSTRY LEADERS
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2014
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