Materials and the
Environment
Part 2 – World Raw Material
Consumption Trends and
Environmental Implications of
Increasing Consumption
(Most recent update April 1, 2013)
World Raw Material
Consumption Trends
Molybdenum mining in Colorado
World Raw Material Consumption
Trends
•
•
World and U.S. populations are growing.
World economic growth is much more
rapid than the rate of population growth
– as a result, per capita consumption of
goods of all kinds is rising globally.
World Demand for Selected Raw
Materials, 1961 – 2012
Materials Used in Greatest Quanity
(Million Metric Tons)
8000
7000
6000
Raw Steel
Ind. Wood
Fuel Wood
Cement
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
2012
2009
2006
2003
2000
1997
1994
1991
1988
1985
1982
1979
1976
1973
1970
1967
1964
1961
0
Source: U.S. Geological Survey, Commodity Summary Statistics (2013). Data
for wood from UN, FAOStat Forestry (2013).
World Demand for Selected Raw
Materials, 1961 – 2012
Important Metals
(Million Metric Tons)
90
80
Tin
Nickel
Lead
Zinc
Copper
Aluminum
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
2012
2009
2006
2003
2000
1997
1994
1991
1988
1985
1982
1979
1976
1973
1970
1967
1964
1961
0
Source: U.S. Geological Survey, Commodity Summary Statistics (2013).
World Growth in Consumption of
Principal Raw Materials, 1961-2012
(Population growth during this period: 2.28x)
Steel
Cement
4.26x
11.10x
Aluminum
Plastics
Wood
9.45x
48.33x
1.60x
Source: Data for wood from FAO (2013); for cement, steel, and aluminum
from the U.S. Geological Survey (2013); and for plastics from the
Association of Plastics Manufacturers in Europe (2013).
U.S. Demand for Selected Raw
Materials, 1961 – 2012
Materials Used in Greatest Quantity
Great recession
(Million Metric Tons)
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2012
2009
2006
2003
2000
1997
1994
1991
1988
1985
1982
1979
1976
1973
1970
1967
1964
1961
Tin
Nickel
Lead
Zinc
Copper
Aluminum
Raw Steel
Wood
Cement
Source: U.S. Geological Survey, Commodity Summary Statistics (2013). Data
for 2010-2011 wood consumption from UN, FAOStat Forestry (2013); 2012 est.
If a full array of raw materials, including
industrial minerals (limestone, clay, sand,
gravel), are added to a graphic of materials
consumption growth, the picture is even
more dramatic.
U.S. Raw Nonfuel Minerals Put into Use
Annually from 1900 through 2010
(materials embedded in imported goods not included)
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (2012).
U.S. Raw Raw Materials Put into Use
Annually from 1900 through 2010
(materials embedded in imported goods not included)
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (2012).
In the next slide, raw material
consumption growth is shown for two
time periods for the United States:
1961-2005 and 1961-2012.
Note the dramatically different numbers –
pre-great recession and with the recent
recession included within the time frame.
Consumption patterns are likely to soon
return to the 1961-2005 pattern.
U.S. Growth in Basic Raw
Materials Consumption,
1961-2005 and 1961-2012
Steel
Cement
Aluminum
Plastics
Wood
Population growth 1961-2005 – 1.61x
‘61-’05 1.68x
2.26x
3.48x
49.90x
2.37x
Population growth 1961-2012 – 1.71x
‘61-’12 1.51x
1.39x
2.63x
42.40x
1.57x
Source: Data for wood from USFS and estimates (2013); for cement, steel, and
aluminum from the U.S. Geological Survey (2013); and for plastics from the National
Commission on Materials Policy (1975) and the American Plastics Council (2013).
Principal raw materials globally
and in the United States are
cement, wood, and steel.
Annual World Consumption of
Various Raw Materials, 2011
Cement
Roundwood
Industrial roundwood*
Steel
Plastics
Aluminum
Billion
Metric tons
3.600
1.739
0.794
1.520
0.280
0.044
Billion m3
1.1
3.5
1.6
0.19
0.31
0.01
* The difference between roundwood and industrial roundwood is wood used
for fuel. Roundwood includes both fuelwood and wood used in construction,
and for making paper, furniture, and other wood products.
Source: Data for wood from FAO (2013); for cement, aluminum, and
steel from the U.S. Geological Survey (2013); and for plastics from the
Association of Plastics Manufacturers in Europe (2013).
Annual U.S. Consumption of
Various Raw Materials, 2011
Million
Metric tons
Roundwood*
145
Forest products (wood only) 128
Cement
72
Steel
90
Plastics
47.5
Aluminum
3.6
Million m3
341
300
23
12
53
1.3
* Roundwood is the volume of all wood harvested.
More wood is consumed every year in the United States than
all metals and all plastics combined.
Source: Data for wood from UNECE (2013); for cement, steel, and aluminum
from the U.S. Geological Survey (2013); and for plastics from the American
Plastics Council (2012).
In view of this high and continuing
rate of consumption, does this mean
that the world is likely to soon run
out of essential raw materials?
The good news is that the world is
unlikely to physically run out of most
types of raw materials anytime soon.
However, there are a number of
factors that may combine at some
point to limit availability of critical
resources.
These include rising competition
among nations and regions for
resources, social issues, and
environmental concerns.
Consider Mineral Resources
Mineral resources have become more
and more widely available despite
(and partly because of) growing
rates of consumption.
Ore quality is declining as
consumption of metals rises.
Highest Grades of Ore
(generally exploited first)
Lower Grades of Ore
Lowest Grades of Ore
High quality ore contains a high
percentage of metallic element in a
given amount of ore.
Low quality ore contains a low
percentage of metallic element in a
given amount of ore.
Note: products that originate from low grade
ore are not inferior in quality to products that
originate from high grade ore.
There is a strong tendency for
mineral resources to increase in
quantity as the quality that can be
economically exploited goes down.
There is a strong tendency for mineral
resources to increase in quantity as the
quality that can be economically exploited
goes down.
Highest Grades of Ore
(generally exploited first)
Decreasing
ore quality
Lower Grades of Ore
Lowest Grades of Ore
Increasing
ore
availability
Reserves of metals are typically
expressed in years . . . or
specifically as
World Reserves Indices
To calculate the World Reserves Index,
known reserves of a mineral that can be
• extracted economically
• at today’s prices
• using today’s technology
are divided by current annual
consumption of that mineral.
World Reserves of Selected Metals
(expressed in years of supply)
Metal
Reserves (years)
Iron Ore
178
Aluminum
Zinc
219
19
Manganese
Lead
43
20
Copper
35
Nickel
51
Uranium
65
Titanium
79
Source: Richards, J. 2009. Mining, Society, and a Sustainable World.
These numbers are sometimes
interpreted as indicating that the
world is about to run out of
minerals.
However, World Reserve Index
values tend to remain constant or
even rise over time.
Nothing said here should be
interpreted that all metals are
infinitely available.
Also, while long-term availability of
most metals is not an issue, the
environmental impacts of procuring
and processing ore, and especially
increasingly lower grades of ore,
present significant challenges.
Environmental concerns related
to mining and metals production
center on long-term impacts to
nearby populations, landscapes,
water supplies, and air quality
and large impacts of conversion
of ore to base metals and useful
products.
Consider Wood Resources
Wood is a renewable resource. It is
infinitely renewable as long as the
forests from which it is obtained are
managed sustainably.
There are about 4 billion hectares
(10 billion acres) of forests in the
world.
While forest area is
declining in some parts
of the world, it is stable
or increasing in others.
Decreasing
Stable or increasing
Similar trends can be
seen in forest carbon
stocks.
Source: United Nations, FAO, Global Forest Resources Assessment, 2010.
Planted forests now
make up about 7%
of the total forest
area globally – 264
million hectares
(652 million acres).
These supply about
one-quarter of the
annual harvest of
wood used for
forest products.
Deforestation is ongoing, but at a declining
rate worldwide. Losses are wholly within
tropical regions
Estimated Deforestation by Type of Forest
and largely
and Time Period
attributable to
conversion to
agriculture –
although other
factors, including
indiscriminate
logging, play a
Source: United Nations, FAO, State of the World’s Forests – 2012.
role.
In the United States, the World’s
Largest Producer and Consumer
of Wood Products:
•
Forest cover is within 1% of what it was
in the early 1900s (33% of the land area).
•
•
•
•
Net growth greatly exceeds removals.
Forest inventory is increasing.
Forest carbon stocks are increasing.
Ongoing technology improvements have
greatly increased the efficiency of wood
use – now 99%+ of each log harvested.
Trends in U.S. Forestland Area
1630-2009
1200
1045
Million Acres
1000
800
759 732 760 756 762 755 744 739 737 747 751
600
400
200
0
1630 1907 1920 1938 1953 1963 1970 1977 1987 1992 1997 2009
Source: USDA – Forest Service, 2009.
U.S. Timber Growth and
Removals, 1920 - 2006
30
Billions of cubic feet/ year
25
20
Net Growth
Removals
15
10
5
0
1920 1933 1952 1976 1986 1996 2006
Figures above only include growth on forest land where periodic harvesting is
allowed. Growth in reserves, parks, and wilderness areas is not included.
Source: USDA - Forest Service
Standing Timber Inventory – U.S.
1952-2007
Billion Cubic Feet
Hardwoods
Softwoods
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1952
1962
1970
1976
1986
1991
1997
2002
2007
Inventory only includes forest land where periodic harvesting is allowed. Timber
volumes in reserves, parks, and wilderness areas are not included.
Source: USDA-Forest Service, 2007.
Forest Soil Carbon Inventory,
U.S. 1990-2010
Soil Organic C
Litter
Dead Wood
Belowground Biomass
Billion Tons Carbon
Aboveground Biomass
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Source: USEPA (2012). Inventory of US Greenhouse Gas Emissions and
Sinks, 1990-2011, p. 7-15.
Percent of Log Volume
Entering Sawmill
A History of Wood Utilization
Efficiency in the U.S.
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1930
Energy Production
Other Products
Lumber
1970
1985
2005
Source: Bowyer (2012). Data for United States, 2005.
Uses of Material Processed at
U.S. Milling Sites - 2005
•
•
•
•
52% processed into lumber.
36% converted to paper, particleboard, fiberboard,
insulation board.
11-12% used to generate energy.
≤1% waste.
Source: Bowyer (2012). Data for United States, 2005.
Consider the following
illustration of the renewable
nature of forests – and of
the wood that they produce.
U.S. Population
Annual Wood
Harvest
stock
Between 1952
volume
and 2007, timberincreased by
harvests
over 50%!
increased by 3.8
billion cubic feet
1952
annually. So
2007
what happened
to the volume of
growing in U.S.
forests?
Billion ft3
Million m3
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Millions
U.S. Population, Wood Harvest, and
Net Forest Growing Stock Volume,
1952 and 2007
Growing
Net Growing
Stock Volume
Annual wood harvest expressed in m3 and growing stock in ft3 to fit to axes.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005; U.S. Forest Service, 2004.
Environmental concerns
linked to forest harvesting
center around fears of
deforestation and effects
on forest values other
than wood.
Summary
Summary
• Consumption of both renewable and non-
renewable raw materials is increasing.
• Ongoing improvements in technology and
informed management has allowed
resource availability to keep pace with
increasing consumption.
• The world will not “run out” of raw
materials anytime soon, though there are
concerns about future availability of
some key minerals.
Summary
• With sustainable management (such as
practiced in the United States), forests –
and the wood that they produce, will
never run out.
• Environmental concerns related to rising
resource use are increasing.