Addressing HFC Consumption
Under the Montreal Protocol
Dr. John E. Thompson
Deputy Director
Office of Environmental Policy
U.S. Department of State
1
Scope of Presentation
• Rationale for Action
• Linkages between ODS and HFCs
• 2010 North American Amendment Proposal Overview
• Environmental Benefits
2
Projected HFC Growth:
PNAS, 2009, Velders, et al
U.S. EPA, 2009
Historical & Projected HFC Consumption
5,000
A5
Non-A5
World
Consumption (MMTCO2eq)
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
HFC growth linked to ODS phaseout,
expanding availability of air
conditioning & refrigeration
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Taking Action for Sound ODS Phaseout
• HFC Growth is direct result of ODS phaseout
• Montreal Protocol experience and success on HFC-sectors
–
–
–
–
–
–
Refrigeration
Air Conditioning
Foams
Aerosols
Solvents
Fire Suppression
• Montreal Protocol Heavily Involved in addressing HFCs
– Phaseout of HCFCs currently being implemented
– Multilateral Fund incentivizes transition to climate-friendly alternatives
4
Many Substitutes Available
and More on the Way
• “The ultimate choice of technology to phase-out HCFCs will be based
on ozone depletion and also climate impact, health, safety,
affordability and availability, as Decision XIX/6 requires”
May 2010 TEAP XXI/9 Task Force Report
Assessment Of HCFCs and Environmentally Sound Alternatives
• 2010 TEAP Progress Report
– Substitutes for many sectors and sub-sectors available
– Additional substitutes under development
– Global acceptance for alternatives strengthening
2010 North American Proposal
•
•
•
•
Control HFC production and consumption
Control by-product emissions of HFC-23
Covers 20 HFCs, including 2 HFOs
Phasedown, not Phaseout of HFCs
– Baseline is combination of HCFC and HFC consumption (allows some growth)
– Alternatives already available or in pipeline in some sectors (MVAC, domestic
refrigeration, foams)
– Alternatives unavailable in a few sectors (MDIs)
– Caps initiate in 2014 and 2017
– Plateau 15% of Baseline, GWP-weighted (2033 and 2043)
• Ways to Achieve Phasedown
– Transition out of HFCs
– Smaller Charge Sizes
– Move from High to Low GWP HFCs
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Trilateral Proposal Phasedown Schedule
100%
90%
90%
Non-A5 Reduction Steps
80%
80%
Cap - Percent of Baseline
90%
80%
A5 Reduction Steps
70%
70%
70%
60%
50%
50%
50%
40%
30%
30%
30%
20%
15%
15%
10%
0%
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Years
2035
2040
2045
2050
7
2010 Trilateral Amendment Proposal
• HFC-23 Byproduct Control
– From HCFC-22 Production
– Significant HFC-23 Emissions Uncontrolled
– By-product emissions subject to control
• Obligation eligible for Multilateral Fund assistance
– Additional benefits of 6,000 MtCO2eq by 2050
• Technical and Financial Support – MLF
– Incremental cost model – has worked in these sectors
– Bigger problem if we wait
• Complements but leaves unchanged UNFCCC obligations
– Supports global efforts to reduce GHGs
– Leave HFCs in UNFCCC basket – accounting and reporting
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Substantial Climate Benefits Possible
• Trilateral Proposal global cumulative benefits:
– ~3,000 MtCO2eq* through 2020
• Developed country Parties = 3,000 MtCO2eq
• Developing country Parties = 150 MtCO2eq
– ~88,000 MtCO2eq through 2050
• Developed country 5 Parties = 43,000 MtCO2eq
• Developing country Parties = 45,000 MtCO2eq
• EPA’s Analysis of HFC Production and Consumption Controls:
www.epa.gov/ozone/downloads/Analysis_of_HFC_Production_and_Consumption_Co
ntrols.pdf
*MtCO2eq is the same as MMTCO2eq
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North American Proposal Benefits
consumption
reductions
emission reductions
emissions
100,000
90,000
MMTCO2eq
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
North American
Micronesia
Montreal
Proposal (2014- Proposal (2013- Protocol (19902050)
2050)
2010)
Accelerated
HCFC Phaseout
(2010-2039)
Kyoto Protocol
(2008-2012)
Copenhagen
Accord (20122020)
Annex I
Emissions in
2007
Final Thoughts
• Montreal Protocol appropriate vehicle
–
–
–
–
HFCs use tied to ODS phaseout
Successful global agreement
Effective financial mechanism
Sector expertise
• Known alternatives, technologies, and better
handling can reduce HFC consumption
• Developed countries start transition
• Significant near-term climate benefits
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