National Institute
for Environmental
Studies, Japan
32ND USAEE/IAEE NORTH AMERICAN CONFERENCE
JULY 28-31 · ANCHORAGE AK, USA
Xuanming Su, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Weisheng Zhou
July 30, 2013
1
1.
Introduction
2.
Methodologies
3.
Results and Discussion
4.
Conclusions
References
2

China’s five-year plans are a series of social and economic development
initiatives.

SO2 reduction targets and results in the previous five-year plans.
10th (2001-2005)
11th (2006-2010)
SO2 reduction targets
10% below 2000 levels
10% below 2005 levels
SO2 reduction results
Industrial emissions meeting
discharge standards
27.8% above 2000 levels
14.3% below 2005 levels
Industrial desulfurization rate
79.4%
97.9%
33.5%
66.0%
Source: NBS & MEP, China statistical yearbook on environment (2000-2012)
3
Industrial desulfurization rate
60.0
Industrial SO₂ removed
Household SO₂ emissions
Industrial SO₂ emissions
50.0
SO₂ emissions (Mt)
40.0
66.0%
33.5%
30.0
↑27.8%
↓14.3%
20.0
10.0
0.0
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
SO2 emissions of China (1992-2010)
Source: NBS, China statistical yearbook (1990-2012),
NBS & MEP, China statistical yearbook on environment (1998-2012)
4
5
SO₂ emissions removed (left)
SO₂ emissions (left)
Desulfurization rate (right)
100%
Mean desulfurization rate (right)
Above mean desulfurization rate
90%
77.2%
4
SO₂ emissions and removed (Mt)
76.9%
68.3%
69.6%
63.2%
3
63.2%
77.6%
69.5%
66%
61.5%
59.5%
61.2%
60.1%
57.3%
55.2%
50.9%
2
70%
67.9%
66.5%
62.9%
80%
79.3%
77.1%
75.7%
62.7%
65.4%
60.4%
60%
53.7%
50%
48.1%
40.3%
40%
30%
25.7%
1
20.9%
17.3%
20%
10%
0
0.0%
0%
SO2 emissions and desulfurization rates by provinces of China in 2010
Source: NBS, China statistical yearbook (2011)
5
Mining & Quarrying
2.0%
Other Industries
0.1%
Household
15.8%
Food, Beverage &
Leather, Furs &
Tobacco
Down Papermaking &
Textile
2.0%
0.3% Paper Products
1.2%
2.5%
Printing & Record
Medium
0.0%
Petroleum, Coking &
Nuclear Fuel
Chemical Materials 3.1%
& Products
5.1%
Medical &
Pharmaceutical
0.4%
Rubber Chemical
Fiber
0.2%
0.5%
Plastic
Nonmetal Mineral
8.3%
0.1%
Ferrous Metals
8.7%
Electric & Heat Power
44.5%
Nonferrous Metals
4.0%
Metal Products
0.2%
Machine & Electronic
Equipment
0.8%
SO2 emissions by sectors of China in 2010
Source: NBS, China statistical yearbook (2011)
6
Above mean desulfurization rate
100%
89.9%
Mean desulfurization rate
79.0%
80%
63.9%
68.3%
66.0%
61.8%
60%
54.2%
48.3%
40%
20%
31.4%
28.7%
31.3%
18.1%
15.0%
34.9%
47.5%
31.7%
34.3%
31.9%
19.4%
23.5%
0%
Industrial desulfurization rates by sectors of China in 2010
Source: NBS, China statistical yearbook (2011)
7
•
•
SO2 emissions limit in 2015: 20.9 Mt,
8% below 2010 levels.
0.2 Mt is reserved for SO2 emission
trading pilot projects among regions
and enterprises.
3 provinces are
allowed to increase
SO2 emissions.
China’s SO2 emission reduction target in the 12th Five-Year Plan
Source: State Council of China, The Comprehensive Work Plan for Energy Conservation
and Emission Reduction During the 12th Five-Year Plan Period
8
Two-level CES
production function
1 Macroeconomic constraints
K: Capital
stock
Y: Production
output
2 Energy balance
Expansion
factor
prv: Reserve
ratio
E: Electricity
PE: Electricity supply
RSV: Proved
reserves
N: Non electricity
PN: Non-electricity
supply
ENTRD: Energy
import/export
L: Labor
YN = F(KN, LN, EN,
NN)
EMF: Emission
factor
Learning rate
INV:
Investment
NENC: Nonenergy carbon
Y = CON + INV + EC
CON:
Consumption
EC: Energy cost
Carbon Emission
CARLIM:
Carbon limits
UDF: Utilility
disounted factor
UTIL: Discounted
utility
maximize
Technological
learning
CTAX:
Carbon tax
CARTRD: Carbon
import/export
3 Emission evaluation
Integrated assessment model framework
9

SO2 emission calculation
SO2r   2Qrse Sre re (1   re )
s
e
◦ SO2r: SO2 emissions in specific region.
◦ Qrse: Energy thermal consumptions in specific region, sector and energy source.
◦ Sre: Sulfur content in specific region and energy source.
◦ αre: SO2 emission factor in specific region and energy source.
◦ δre: Desulfurization rate in specific region and energy source.

Objective function
5
t 1
UTIL    5   j  0 (1  udrj , r )  log(Ct , r ) 

r 1 t 1 
R
T
◦ UTIL: Discounted consumption.
◦ C: Annual consumption.
◦ udr: Utility discount rate.
10

Four GDP growth scenarios
◦ planned growth 12th Five-Year Plan: 7%
◦ GDP growth scenarios: 5%, 7%, 9% and 11%

Five possible desulfurization rates
◦ desulfurization rate in 2010: 66.0%
◦ desulfurization rate scenarios: 50%, 60% 70%, 80% and 90%
◦ given exogenously due to the uncertainty of the popularizing rates of
desulfurization equipment

All the scenarios are simulated:
◦ in view of China’s current economic development and energy consumption
◦ considering relevant environmental protection and greenhouse gas emission
reduction
11
SO2 emission scenarios of China in 2015
GDP growth
Scenarios
5%
(%)
Primary energy
consumption
2673
(Mtoe)
Electricity
generation
5306
(TWh)
Gross SO2
emissions
60.6
7%
2818
5893
65.0
9%
3001
6434
69.0
11%
3405
8193
80.7

(Mt)
Household SO2
emissions
(Mt)
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.3
7% growth scenario reduces 14.0% of energy consumption per unit of GDP, slightly lower
than the target of 16% set in the 12th Five-Year Plan.

The household SO2 emissions show little change due to the single emission source, namely
the direct use of coal.

SO2 emitted by household use of petroleum gas/natural gas is ignored in this study.
12
40
5% growth
30
SO₂ emissions (Mt)
SO₂ emissions (Mt)
30
20
10
20
10
0
0
2010
SO₂ emissions
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2010
Scenarios with different industrial desulfurization rate
50%
SO₂ emissions
60%
9% growth
SO₂ emissions (Mt)
20
10
80%
90%
11% growth
40
30
70%
Scenarios with different industrial desulfurization rate
50
40
SO₂ emissions (Mt)
7% growth
40
30
20
10
0
0
2010
SO₂ emissions
50%
60%
70%
80%
Scenarios with different industrial desulfurization rate
90%
2010
50%
SO₂ emissions
60%
70%
80%
90%
Scenarios with different industrial desulfurization rate
SO2 emission reduction scenarios
13

Industrial desulfurization rate needed for
12th 5-year plan targets (%)
100%
80%

Desulfurization rates should be raised above 70% due to the
uncertainty of GDP growth.
The popularization of wet-type SO2 scrubbers and improvement of
the environmental emission standards play an important role in the
achievement of SO2 control target by 2015
77.8%
73.8%
72.1%
69.9%
63.9%
60%
40%
33.5%
20%
0%
2005
2010
5%
7%
9%
11%
GDP growth scenarios
Industrial desulfurization rate needed for 12th 5-year plan targets
14
Emissions by other sectors (Left)
SO₂ emissions by power generation
4
Emission intensity of power generation (Right)
40
SO₂ emissions (Mt)
3
30
2
20
1
10
0
SO₂ emission intensity of power generation (g/kWh)
50
0
2010 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
GDP growth 5%
GDP growth 7%
GDP growth 9%
GDP growth 11%
SO2 emissions by power generation and other sectors,
and SO2 emissions intensity of power generation
15
This study makes a comprehensive assessment of energy related SO2 emissions control in
China’s 12th Five-Year Plan based on a large scale non-linear integrated assessment model.
1. There is a relative large potential for China to reduce SO2 emissions technologically and the
popularization of wet-type SO2 scrubbers and improvement of the environmental emission
standards play an important role in the achievement of SO2 control target by 2015.
2. The improvement in energy consumption structure contributes to SO2 and other energy
related emission controls effectively, as well as the sustainable development of energy.
3. The thresholds of desulfurization for different growth scenarios, namely 5%, 7%, 9% and 11%
scenarios, to achieve the SO2 emission control target are presented in this study, as 69.9%,
72.1%, 73.8% and 77.8, respectively.
4. Future environmental policy should concentrate on the provinces which emit SO2 seriously,
like Shandong, Inner Mongolia and Henan, or relevant industrial sectors such as electric &
heat power, ferrous metals and nonmetal mineral sectors.
16
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