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Evaluating Brazil’s
Bolsa Família Program:
Do Local Governments Matter?
Pui Shen Yoong
International Politics & Economics Honors Thesis
April 20, 2012
Presentation Outline
 Context: Brazil & the Bolsa Família Program
 Research Question
 Methodology
 Quantitative Findings
 Qualitative Findings
 Conclusion
Brazil – A Country of Contrasts
Mean per capita income (PPP US$ of 2005)
Source: World Bank.
The Bolsa Família Program
• Conditional cash transfer program
• Cash in exchange for schooling/nutrition ‘conditionalities’:
• Pregnant women
: pre-natal care
• Children aged 0 – 6
: vaccination, monitoring
• Children aged 6 – 15 : minimum attendance 85 %
• Teenagers aged 16 – 17: minimum attendance 75 %
• Families who earn <140 reais per capita (80 USD) a month
• Allowances from 32 to 306 reais (20 – 180 USD) a month
Decentralized Management
Research Question
 “How does local
government capacity
affect the program’s
ability to improve
beneficiaries’ health
& education across
municipalities?”
Methodology: Regression Analysis
853 municipalities in Minas Gerais state
Municipal fixed-effects model (i=municipality, t=year)
INDEPENDENT VARIABLE
DEPENDENT VARIABLE
Administrative Capacity
Effect on health/education
% of beneficiaries monitored for
compliance with
health/education requirements
-- % of beneficiaries
complying with
health/education
requirements
Methodology: Case Studies
Araçuaí
Capelinha
Belo
Horizonte
Contagem
Human Development Index by
Municipality, Minas Gerais, 2000
Quantitative Results
• Monitoring rates have significant and positive effect on
compliance rates, both for health & education.
• Population size, degree of urbanization, program coverage
rates, log of tax revenue – no significant effect. Neither do
supply-side factors (health teams, social assistance centers)
• But why/how do monitoring rates affect compliance rates?
Qualitative Results
 Cross-sector collaboration – health, education,
social assistance departments
 Administrative Structure
 Financial capacity does not explain differences in
compliance rates
Conclusion
Local government capacity matters!
 Investment in building monitoring capacity (MDS
& municipalities)
 Incentives for horizontal collaboration among
local-level agents
THANK YOU!
Pui Shen Yoong
psyoong@gmail.com
Questions? Comments?
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