Future:
How to be
prepared for
it?
Futurist Elina
Hiltunen
What’s Next
Consulting Oy
Elina Hiltunen, What’s Next Consulting Oy, www.whatsnext.fi, email: whatsnext@luukku.com
Elina, who?
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M.Sc in chemical engineering
Futurist
Ph.D. Student at HSE
Lecturer, consultant
Founder of What’s Next
Consulting Oy
Columnist at Talouselämä,
Wired UK, Talous Sanomat,
Jade, Future Takes (US)
Board member of European
Futurists Conference
Blogger:
www.future.vuodatus.net
What did not
happen in the
future:
1910 , France: Paleo future blogi
And what happened…
Harpleys Week,
1908
Source: paleofuture blog
Why to think about the future
when we cannot predict it?
• Be prepared for
various futures
(anticipation)
• Innovating the futures
and breaking our
mental models
• Communicating and
discussion about
futures with
shareholders
Anticipating
the futures
 Being
prepared for
various futures
Some concepts of the
future
Weak Signals
Fad
Trend
Megatrend
duration
Megatrendit
are big trends
that concern a
lot of people
Globalization
Source: http://www.cartoonweb.com/images/globalization/globalization1.gif
Networking
Source: http://www.cartoonweb.com/
Teknological development
Climate change
Increase of the
use of social
media
Increase of use
of alternative
energy sources
Increase of use
of mobile phones
Increase of
single
households
Increase of
distant working
Wild cards
• Fast changes
with huge
impacts
Kuvan lähde: http://www.israelnewsagency.com/cherney911terrorism.jpg
Weak signals
•
Signals of new emerging issues that can become big trends in
the future- or then not
A weak signal test
1. Makes your colleagues to
laugh
2. You collagues are opposing
it:no way, it will never
happen
3. Makes people to wonder
4. No one has heard about it
before
5. It is wanted that no-one
talks about it anymore (a
tabu)
1-5 ticks and it is a weak
signal!
Source: Perhe- lehti
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6z2DWXmRkg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UcKqyn-gUbY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yd99gyE4jCk
Philips Lumalive
Different kinds of weak signals
• Technological weak signals
 innovations
• Social weak signals 
something is done
differently, a change in
accustomed
Where Do I (as a weak signal enthusiast) find them?
• Surfing in the Internet
• Blogs, blogs and blogs
• Keeping my eyes and ears open, mobilephone with
camera in the other hand and a notebook in the
other
reporting about weak signals
How to use weak signals
TrendWiki
wnc.trendwiki.fi
a tool for organizations for collecting futures
information
TrendWiki
wnc.trendwiki.fi
Trendi
+ erilaiset
tilastolliset
Analyysit
 skenaariot
signaalit
Scenarios
Now
Scenarios
Trend
Trend
Trend
Trend
Trend
Trend
Megatrend
Megatrend
Megatrend
Testing the strategy
How will the strategy work in
different futures
-finding weak points of
strategy
-thinking of various
possibilities for action in
the future
Scenarios
Strategy
Innovating the futures
“Imagination is more important than
knowledge. ”
”For knowledge is limited to
all we now know and
understand, while imagination
embraces the entire world, and
all there ever will be to know
and understand.”
Breaking the mental models
Tools:
-Strategic serendipity
-Futures Window
Futures Window
References: VTT, UPM, Nokia, Welness fair 2008, YLE
Strategic Serendipity
Product/ service
Target group
A trend
theme
Comunnication and
discussion with the
community
Finnair Departure 2093
www.departure2093.com
Futures work of various
organizations
• Macroscenarios
(Shell, Nokia)
• Consumer scenarios
(Philips, Sony
Ericsson)
• Reports on various
topics (Siemens,
IBM)
• Futures
teasers(Philips
Design, VW)
Beware of these in you
organization’s futures
work
• Believing too much on your own
opinions about the future
• Consensus, group think
• Being prepared only for one, the
most wanted future
• Superficiality, too little
resources
Thank You!
More information: www.future.vuodatus.net and
www.whatsnext.fi