Climate change, agriculture and food security: proven approaches and new investments, Policy Briefing 29, Brussels, 27 September 2012 Smallholder agriculture under climate change: challenges and outlook Sonja Vermeulen, Head of Research CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security Impacts 4 degrees by 2100 is likely Impacts 1: Long-term trends in temperature and rainfall Length of growing period (%) To 2090, taking 14 climate models Four degree rise Thornton et al. 2010 >20% loss 5-20% loss No change 5-20% gain >20% gain Impacts 2: Increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events Pulwaty 2010 Impacts 3: Major transitions in ecosystems and livelihoods 2050 compared with 2005 in A1B scenario Cheung et al 2010 Impacts 4: Poorest at risk By 2050, severe childhood stunting up by 23% in central Africa and 62% in South Asia (uses IFPRI IMPACT model + socioeconomic models) Lloyd et al. 2011 Environmental Health Perspectives Becoming “climate smart” Food security GHG CO2-eq tonne per capita 25 20 15 10 5 0 US Adaptation Malawi Ecological footprint “Climate-smart agriculture” means building resilience, balancing trade-offs, suiting the context Adaptation Adaptive capacity Technology Income & assets Governance & institutions Infrastructure Knowledge & skills Social capital Access to information Key adaptation strategies Incremental adaptation to progressive climate change • Closing yield gaps (i.e. sustainable intensification) • Raising the bar – technologies & policies for 2030s Climate risk management • Technologies (e.g. flood control) • Institutions (e.g. index-based insurance) • Climate information systems (e.g. seasonal forecasts) Transformative adaptation • Changing production systems • Changing livelihood portfolios • Example: Climate analogue tool • Identifies the range of places whose current climates correspond to the future of a chosen locality • These sites are used for cross-site farmer visits, & participatory crop & livestock trials Adapting to long-term climate trends Example: Climate services • Met services produce forecast information downscaled in space & time • Farmers & met services work together to ensure forecasts meet local needs Adapting to greater climate variability To transformational adaptation? • • • • Relocation of growing areas & processing facilities Agricultural diversification, or shifts Livelihood diversification, or shifts Migration Summary points Climate change impacts on smallholder agriculture: • Are more complex than often assumed – and happening faster than often assumed • Are unevenly distributed geographically • Depend on household and national capacities and contexts as well as on exposure to climate threats • Pose major threats to nutrition, welfare, incomes and health among poorer households Responding with climate-smart agriculture: • Is foremost about development – addressing smallholder concerns, building assets & resilience • Adds new actions on climate to sustainable development • Deals with trade-offs, not only “win-win-wins” • Must be “landscape-smart” too • Will not solve future food security on its own (need actions on distribution, diets, waste) www.ccafs.cgiar.org sign up for news on agriculture & climate change follow us on twitter @cgiarclimate