Features of the Current
Arrangements
Presentation to Post-Primary Review
Working Group – 19 June 2003
The Selective System
System of grammar and secondary schools
71 grammar schools (63,000 or 40% of pupils)
164 secondary schools (93,000 or 60% of pupils)
Differences within the selective system
Regional variations in access to places
The Selective System in
Practice
66% of P7 pupils sat the 2002/03 tests
Admission to grammar schools: 35.3%
(2002/03)
Over/under-subscription
Negligible movement between school types
until age 16
How does the NI system
perform compared to other
countries?
NI
England
20
01
/02
20
00
/01
19
99
/00
19
98
/99
19
97
/98
19
96
/97
19
95
/96
19
94
/95
19
93
/94
19
92
/93
% of Pupils
UK Comparisons: 2+ ‘A’ levels A-E
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
NI
England
Wales
Scotland
20
01
/0
20
00
/0
19
99
/0
19
98
/9
19
97
/9
19
96
/9
19
95
/9
19
94
/9
19
93
/9
19
92
/9
19
91
/9
2
1
0
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
% of Pupils
UK Comparisons: 5+ GCSEs A*-C
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
NI
England
Wales
20
01
/02
20
00
/01
19
99
/00
19
98
/99
19
97
/98
19
96
/97
19
95
/96
19
94
/95
19
93
/94
19
92
/93
19
91
/92
% of Pupils
UK Comparisons: 5+ GCSE A*-G
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
NI
England
Wales
20
01
/0 2
20
00
/0 1
19
99
/0 0
19
98
/9 9
19
97
/9 8
19
96
/9 7
19
95
/9 6
19
94
/9 5
19
93
/9 4
19
92
/9 3
19
91
/9 2
% of Pupils
UK Comparisons: No GCSEs
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Average GCSE Point Scores
Northern
Ireland
England
Male
Female
34.0
41.6
All
Pupils
37.7
37.4
42.9
40.1
UK Comparisons: Average GCSE Point Scores
60
Average Point Score
50
40
35.1
37
36.3
38.1
36.9
38.9
36.9
39.3
37.7
40.1
30
20
10
0
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
Year
Northern Ireland
England
2001/02
International Comparisons:
PISA and International Adult Literacy
Survey
Significantly better than OECD average.
Around 10th out of 32 in Reading, Maths and Science.
Performed similar to England (and Scotland).
One of the widest ranges of achievement.
24% of NI workforce at lowest literacy level.
How Does the NI System
perform for different groups?
% Grade A in Transfer Test by Free School
Meal Band 2001/02
60
% of Pupils
50
40
30
20
10
0
< 11%
11 - 20% 21 - 30% 31 - 40% 41 - 50%
FSM Band
51% +
Average GCSE Point Score by Free School
Meal Band (2001/02) for Secondary Schools
35
Average GCSE Point Score
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
<20
20-29
30-39
40-49
FSM Band
50-59
60+
% of Pupils entitled to Free School Meals
Grammar
Secondary
Catholic
Other
Managed Managed
11.7
3.7
37.0
22.3
Overall
7.3
29.4
5+ GCSEs A*-C for FSM and Non-FSM
School Leavers
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
Non-FSM
FSM
20
00
/0
1
19
99
/0
0
19
98
/9
9
19
97
/9
8
19
96
/9
7
19
95
/9
6
19
94
/9
5
10
5+ GCSEs A*-G by FSM and Non-FSM
School Leavers
100
90
80
70
60
50
Non-FSM
FSM
20
00
/01
19
99
/00
19
98
/99
19
97
/98
19
96
/97
19
95
/96
19
94
/95
40
No GCSEs by FSM and Non-FSM School
Leavers
30
25
20
15
10
5
Non-FSM
FSM
20
00
/01
19
99
/00
19
98
/99
19
97
/98
19
96
/97
19
95
/96
19
94
/95
0
How does performance in
Grammar and Secondary
schools compare?
.9
59
10 .9
-1
4
15 .9
-1
9
20 .9
-2
4
25 .9
-2
9
30 .9
-3
4
35 .9
-3
9
40 .9
-4
4
45 .9
-4
9
50 .9
-5
4
55 .9
-5
9
60 .9
-6
4
65 .9
-6
9
70 .9
-7
4
75 .9
-7
9
80 .9
-8
4
85 .9
-8
9.
9
04
% of Pupils
GCSE Point Scores for All Pupils
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Point Score
Grammar and Secondary
Comparisons
% achieving
Secondary Grammar
5 or more GCSEs A*-C
37
95
5 or more GCSEs A*-G
80
100
Average GCSE Point
Score
28
57
.9
59
10 .9
-1
4
15 .9
-1
9
20 .9
-2
4
25 .9
-2
9
30 .9
-3
4
35 .9
-3
9
40 .9
-4
4
45 .9
-4
50 9.9
-5
4
55 .9
-5
9
60 .9
-6
4
65 .9
70 69.9
-7
4.
75 9 9
-7
9
80 .9
-8
4
85 .9
-8
90 9.9
-9
4.
9
04
% of Pupils
GCSE Point Scores for Secondary
and Grammar Pupils
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Point Score
Secondary
Grammar
Comparison of top achieving secondary
school pupils with grammar pupils
Top 25% of Secondary
School Leavers
%
All Grammar
School Leavers
%
5+ GCSE’s
A*-C
100
96
5+ GCSE’s
A*-G
100
99
Variation in School Performance
2001/02
Grammar Schools
Top 10%
Bottom 10%
3+ A Levels A-C
78%
46%
7+ GCSEs A*-C
99%
74%
Secondary Schools
Top 10%
Bottom 10%
5+GCSEs A*-C
63%
12%
5+GCSEs A*-G
98%
53%
How Does the NI system
perform at post-16?
Post-16 Participation Rates
Northern
Ireland
England*
Schools
FE
Overall
44.7
27.7
72.4
31.3
33.5
64.9
•2001 Provisional figures for England
•Sixth Form Colleges included in FE figure for
England
Post-16 Provision in
Secondary Schools
Schools
% of
cohort
% of Yr12
secondary
pupils
No
%
No 6th Form
52
22
17
27
Limited provision (<80
pupils)
75
32
25
39
Of which
Repeaters only
15
6
3
5
127
54
42
66
No or limited provision
Access To Higher Education
From social classes III, IV,V
UK
27%
Scotland
27%
NI
31%
Routes to Higher Education
•55% from grammar schools
•45% from secondary schools, FE Colleges and
other sources
•Majority of working class entrants to HE come
through non-grammar routes
Demography
What impact will demography have on
post-primary education?
Demography
Population projections
Impact on post-primary population
Impact on secondary schools
Impact on grammar schools
Population Projections
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
Age 11-18
20
40
20
25
20
20
20
15
20
10
20
05
20
01
0
Population Projections
11-18
population
%
decrease
2001
2010
2020
2040
212,541
195,086
172,868
158,058
0
8
19
26
Post-Primary Age Population to
decline by a quarter by 2040
How will this affect post-primary
schools?
School Population Projections
19
97
/9
19 8
98
/9
19 9
99
/0
20 0
00
/0
20 1
01
/0
20 2
02
/0
20 3
03
/0
20 4
04
/0
20 5
05
/0
20 6
06
/0
20 7
07
/0
20 8
08
/0
9
180,000
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
Grammar
Secondary
All Schools
Secondary:Grammar Ratios
%
Secondary
%
Grammar
2002 2010 2015 2020 2025
59
56
51
50
49
41
44
49
50
51
By 2020 grammar and secondary ration
will be 50:50
Impact on Secondary Schools
By 2010 - reduction of 12,000 pupils in
secondary schools which equates to 21
secondary schools (based on average size of 560)
By 2020 - 31,000 pupils (55 schools)
Surplus Places
13,000 surplus places in post-primary
schools (8%)
Almost 70% (113) secondary schools have
surplus places
Nearly half (76) have 10% or more surplus
places
Impact on Secondary Schools
Viability of some schools – closures,
amalgamations
Ability mix within schools
Impact will be greater in particular areas
Impact on Grammar Schools
Ability mix within schools
- 8% of admissions to grammar schools are
Cs or Ds at present
- 21 grammar schools with 10%
admissions with Cs and Ds in Transfer
Test
- 10 schools with 20% or more Cs and Ds
admitted
Demography: Key Points
Population to fall by a quarter by 2040
Full impact on secondary sector
Implications for rationalisation
Implications for ability mix in secondary
and grammar schools
Forces For Change
Dissatisfaction with Transfer Test
Weaknesses in post-16 provision
Curricular change
Falling post-primary demography
Changing social profile of intakes to
HE
Forces for Change (Cont)
Equality/human rights/inclusion
agenda
Social cohesion
Globalisation/economic development
Local Assembly
Discussion
What issues have been
raised by this presentation?