• PRESCRIBED SUBJECT
Route 2:
• Prescribed Subject 3:
Communism in Crisis
• The Fall of Communism: The
USSR and Eastern Europe
• Area #1
– Domestic and Foreign Problems
of the Brezhnev Era: Economic
and Political Stagnation;
Afghanistan
• Khrushchev Legacy
Problems Inherited by – Seizes power from Malenkov/Bulganin
Brezhnev
after brief power struggle
– Still repressive state but…
• Fewer imprisoned
• Less violence and few killed
– Begins De-Stalinization
• Secret Speech
– CPSU, February 25, 1956
– Khrushchev shocked his listeners by
denouncing Stalin's dictatorial rule and
cult of personality
– also attacked the crimes committed by
associates of Lavrentiy Beria.
• end to the role of large-scale forced labor
• Freeing Gulag prisoners
• Khrushchev as reformer
Problems Inherited by – Limits to critique of Stalin
Brezhnev
• Collectivization, anti religion (Churches
closed)
• Economic reforms but still a Command
Economy
– Modest industrial authority to local
officials
– Virgin Lands scheme
» Grow crops on marginal lands like
Siberia
– Reforms lead to 6% growth 1955-60
– Other reforms
• Term limits for Bureaucrats (HATE IT!!)
• Khrushchev as reformer (2)
Problems Inherited by
Brezhnev
• Invests in Space Race
– Sputnik is first satellite 1957
– Yuri Gagarin first man in space 1961
• Foreign Policy
– Secret Speech creates hope for reform in
satellite states
– The “Thaw” follows with the West
• Peaceful Coexistence
– USSR can compete without violence
– Triumph over capitalism by example not force
– Fails
» Hungarian reforms crushed 1956
» H-Bomb developed and build 1st ICBM
(Missle)
» Also Berlin Crisis 1958-61, Cuba 1962
• Leonid Brezhnev
– Khrushchev protégé whon heads Central
Brezhnev Domestic Policy Committee
– Conspires with N. Podgorny, A. Kosygin and
M. Suslov to oust Khrushchev 1964
– “B” becomes General Secretary of Party, “P”,
head of State, “Ko” gets SOVNARKOM
– Not very bright, very vain (awards self 60
medals), is a classic Soviet Bureaucrat
– Collective rule as he is a good organizer but
not bright
– Rules to 1982 as others gradually pushed
aside
• Ill by 1973, not in charge after 1976 (Senile) but
kept on as figurehead
• Leadership is very elderly doesn’t want power
struggle
• Leonid Brezhnev
• Reverses Khrushchev reforms
Brezhnev Domestic Policy
– Term limits abolished
– Central Planning resumes
– Kosygin tries to a modest reform by using
sales and profits not quotas for production
targets
– Proposes local control and computers and
automation to expand
– Tech. trade as well
– Brezhnev undermines reforms
• Conservative by nature and won’t abandon price
and wage controls
• Reforms can’t work if this stays in place
• Problems
– “Partocracy”
Brezhnev Problems
• Ensures political stability and Party
power/privileges at all costs
• Party grows 20% 1971-81
– Harder to discipline/more diverse
• 1977 Constitution reaffirms Party
dominance
– Socialism now mature (implies no changes)
– Gerontocracy
• Focus on “stability of cadres
• Stay in office til death so CPSU ages (average age
P-buro rises 55 to 68 from 1966-81)
• Central Committee only 44% turnover same period
• Problems (con’t)
– Corruption
Brezhnev Problems
• 750,000 Party and State officials and managers
(Nomenklatura)
• Great security of position, privileges and perks
– Special stores, medical, housing, income
– Ex. Brezhnev has luxury Limos
– Key function seems to be to preserve their
status not to promote communism
– Most don’t work hard, stagnation
– Cynicism
• Few citizens believe in communism, the Party or
the system
• Contempt for corruption “They pretend to pay us,
we pretend to work”.
• "Leonid Ilyich is in surgery.""Heart again?""No,
chest expansion surgery: to fit one more Gold Star
medal."
• Bright Spots under Brezhnev?
Brezhnev Problems
– Living standards up modestly
– State Security, KGB, MVD etc. is 700,000 and
prevents active dissent
– State has full and active control of the media
to stifle dissent
– Party is quite large (10% of total population)
and the privileged are unlikely to revolt
– State propaganda trumpets Soviet sports
success, particularly Olympics
– Widespread cheating and drugs but athletes
are national heroes
– Problem is none of this gets active support
for the regime they just endure it
• Dissent never a serious threat
– Do not overstate this
– Mostly urban intellectuals, numbers small
– Most of Khrushchev’s religious persecution
ended
Brezhnev Problems
• Dissent never a serious threat (con’t)
• Still controls on Catholics and Uniates
• Do take tough line on vocal dissenters
– Y. Daniel, A. Sinayavsky get hard labor for
smuggling out works (published abroad)
– Poet Iosif Broadsky exiled 1972
– Solzhenitsyn, Nobel Prize The Gulag
Archipelago and also writes about internal
exile (Exiled 1974 after years in jail)
– A. Sakharov, physicist internal exile 1980
(Soviet H-Bomb inventor)
• Two strands of dissent
– Human Rights/anti-authoritarians
» Samizdat: self published photocopies
(4000 in1979)
» Magnitizdat magnetic tape publishing
• Dissent (con’t)
Brezhnev Problems
– Growing national unrest not dangerous yet but
potentially huge threat
– Multinational USSR (Russians only 52% and
birth rate declining
– Baltics, Islamic regions all potentially
explosive
– Jewish “refusenniks” demand to be allowed to
leave
» Few are permitted, causes tension with
the west (Why? Other groups might
follow)
– Why the growth of dissent 1970’s -80’s?
• De-stalinization discredits Communist Party
• Repression remains but Stalin successors reluctant to
use extreme violence/terror (so more speak out)
• Society more urban/educated undermines control
• Aware of West culture/wealth (TV/Radio jamming
doesn’t always work)
• West pressures USSR to Keep human rights
agreements like Helsinki Accords (1975)
• Economic Stagnation
Brezhnev Problems
– Slowdown of Econ. Worsens under Brezhnev
• Stagnation here as well
• At first failures masked by high oil/gold prices
of which USSR has huge reserves
– Can pay for tech. imports and grain
• Some successes 1966-76
–
–
–
–
Agri grows 21% 1966-70 (Private plots expanded)
Oil production up 50% 1972-80
Siberian RR construction
Living Standards ( 86% have Fridge, 74% have
TV’s
» Modest wage increase for urban and rural
workers (up to 90% of industrial wage)
» Basic commodities like bread, potatoes,
clothes, rent, kept low by the state
» Problem is state can’t afford the subsidies they
pay to keep prices low
• Economic Stagnation
– Failures under Brezhnev (con’t)
Brezhnev Problems
• Steady decline of Industrial growth
• 5% 1960-65, 2% by 1979-82
• Tech. gap widens as computer age begins (no
innovation/risk taking like Bill Gates or Steve Jobs)
• Agri. growth 1% per year 1981-85 despite investing
27% of gov’t budget on agriculture (ex. US gov’t
4% in agriculture at same time)
– Subsidies 20% of Budge, can’t invest elsewhere
• USSR can’t feed itself 40% of Gov’t earnings spent
on grain imports
• Over-dependent on foreign loans owe Fr., FRG,
Br., US 50 Billion
– Have to do joint ventures (ex. Natural Gas Pipeline 1980’s)
• Dependence on oil and gold exports leads to
disaster when oil prices collapse 1980’s
– No currency for food or investment
• Economic Stagnation
– Failures under Brezhnev (con’t)
Brezhnev Problems
• Indicators of failure
– Living standards still behind the West
– Even behind some Satellite states like GDR
» GDR 40% with car, USSR 6%
– Black Market 10% of economy
» Tolkachi: set up fake factories and sell raw
materials from gov’t to real factories
» Deals, bribes, patronage to get access to
scarce goods/services
– Alcoholism rampant
» 11% arrested for drunkeness 1979
» 50,000/year die from alcohol related
issues 1980
– Infant mortality 23/1000 1971 to 32/1000 1976
– Life expectancy down 4 years for men 2 years
for women 1966-81
• Why Does the Economy Stagnate??
– Command economy won’t work (supply, demand
Brezhnev Problems ignored. no innovation/risks)
– No incentives Sovkhozes, Kolkhozes (agri.) or in
industry
• Ex. US miner 14 tons of coal/day USSR 2.1 tons with similar
technology (paid anyway (poorly) why work hard?)
– Arms Race chews up resources (11-25%)
– Central planning prevents manager
experiments/innovations
– 5YP’s quantitative not qualitative
– Overemphasis on heavy industry = scarce consumer
goods “Que up!”
– Limited arable land vulnerable to bad weather
– Agri. production fails to keep up with population
• Private plots (1% of land) produce 28% of food (no incentives
on state owned land)
– Roads, RR’s limited, few refigerated RR Cars equals
rot, Farm equipment poor quality/not maintained
• Was Brezhnev truly at
Brezhnev Problems
fault???
• Did he represent what the
Party wanted?
• Do the Brezhnev
Historiography Activity
• Foreign Policy Under Brezhnev
Brezhnev Foreign
Policy
– Initially poor relations with the west
– Prague Spring 1968 Opens Communist Party to
criticism in Czech. (A. Dubcek wants more open
Party)
• Brezhnev leads Warsaw pact invasion, crushes Czechs puts
hardliner in charge
• Brezhnev Doctrine states will intervene if Socialism is
threatened in a socialist state
– Relations improve in 1970’s with Détente
• Means relaxation of tension (mostly with US)
• Still try to expand but step back from the edge of war
– Why Détente (USSR)?
•
•
•
•
Fear of nuclear war
Costs of arms race
USSR needs western tech.
USSR has caught up to US (ICBMs) militarily and
welcomes a pause
• Fear US/China cooperation
• Foreign Policy Under Brezhnev
Brezhnev Foreign
Policy
– Why Détente (US)?
• President Nixon wants USSR/PRC aid to get a
settlement on Vietnam War
• Arms costs hurt US economy that is in recession
• Yom Kippur war leads to massive oil price increase
• US GDP delines from 38% of World to 25%
• Kissinger US Sec of State accepts balance
• Foreign Policy Under Brezhnev
Brezhnev Foreign
Policy
– Successes
• 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
– Don’t transfer nuke tech. to other countries
• 1971 Nuclear Accidents Treaty
– Notify each other concerning accidents
• Salt 1 Treaty 1972
–
–
–
–
Limit launchers
5 year ICBM/SLBM freeze
ABM Treaty: 2 ABM sites each (200 total launchers)
Bombers, MIRV’s not touched
• US/USSR Trade Agreement 1972
– High Tech. exports allowed but Senate cancels it
unless Jews can emigrate
• Foreign Policy Under Brezhnev
Brezhnev Foreign
Policy
– 1972 Basic Pricnciple of Relations
• Formalize Peaceful Co-existence
– 1973 Prevention of Nuclear War Agreement
• Consult during Crises
– 1975 Helsinki Accords
•
•
•
•
Respect sovereignty
Renounce Force
Respect Human rights
Respect borders
– Ostpolitik
• West Germnay refused to deal with any state that
acknowledged East Germany from 1949-1963
• Willy Brandt of SPD Chancellor in 1969
• Moscow Treaty formally ends WWII with USSR
• 1971 two Berlins formally recognized
• 1972 the two “Germanies” recognize each other
• Makes US nervous, Brandt looking East?
• Foreign Policy Under Brezhnev
Brezhnev Foreign
Policy
• SALT II 1979
–
–
–
–
–
2400 Bomber/missile limit reduce to 2250 1985
1200 MIRV launchers
Limit # of MIRVs per missile
Commit to negotiate SALT III
Never Ratified
» Issues of verification
» USSR Brigade of troops discovered in
Cuba (violates agreement that ended
Missile Crisis 1962)
» Soviet Afghan invasion
» Both sides follow SALT II provisions even
though it is never ratified by US Senate
– Late 1970’s Détente under attack in US
and USSR
• Achievements were always modest any many
politicians US/USSR become hostile to it
• Foreign Policy Under Brezhnev
Brezhnev Foreign
Policy
– Challenges to Détente USSR
• USSR resents linkage of negotiations to human
rights
– Carter links Détente to Soviet moral behavior
• USSR anger at Camp David Egyptian/Israeli Peace
Deal
– USSR had been promised a seat at the
negotiations but was cut out
– Challenges to Détente US
• USSR seeks to gain advantage in 3rd World late 70’s
• Carter Admin split, Brzezinski (Nat’l Security
Adviser) sees it as one way street (USSR gets all the
advantages) Vance Sec. of State wants to continue
• US “New Right”
– Increase defense spending, deter Soviets, end
recession
– Agree with one way street argument
– Revolutions in Iran, Nicaragua, Grenada viewed as
examples of cynical Soviet Exploitation
• Foreign Policy Under Brezhnev
Brezhnev Foreign
Policy
– Challenges to Détente US (con’t)
• US “New Right” (con’t)
• Reagan wins in 1980 and shifts policy
– Middle East Background
• Eisenhower Doctrine
• Soviet Mediterranean Fleet Formed 1964
• Massive Soviet aid to Egypt after 6 Day War 1966
– Détente then calms things after 1968
• USSR/US to work for peace in the region
– Challenges illustrated
• Yom Kippur War 1973
– USSR knew of Egypt/Syria attack on Israel in
advance and said nothing
– Then threatened to send troops to separate
warring states when Israel got the upper hand
– Forced to back down when US went on
worldwide alert (Fiasco for USSR)
Brezhnev Foreign
Policy
• USSR intervention in developing world
– Want a say in 3rd world countries, access to
naval bases etc…
– Angola
» Battle between MPLA and FNLA-UNITA
when Portuguese leave 1975
» FNLA-UNITA get help from South-Africa,
MPLA gets USSR aid
» Cuba sends in17,000 troops and
MPLA controls most of country
» US fears Soviet influence
– Ethiopia/Somalia
» USSR helps Ethiopia v. Somalia
» 17,000 More Cubans sent in
» USSR gets port rights right on oil export
routes from Persian Gulf
» USSR reacting(?) or aggressive
expansionists(?) US thinks it is the latter
• Foreign Policy Under Brezhnev
Brezhnev Foreign
Policy
– Challenges illustrated
• Deployment of SS-20s and Pershing II/Cruise
Missiles
– 1977 USSR installs mobile SS20 IRBM MIRV
missiles targeted on Western Europe and China
– US counters with Pershing II and Cruise
Missiles (Possible first strike as they fly low
avoid radar)
» USSR alarmed when after fierce political
battle NATO accepts 108 (P) 464 (C)
» USSR sees this as first strike, US points out
USSR was trying to intimidate Europe
– Would US fire its weapons if USSR shoots only
at Europe?? (Pershing/CM deployment solves
this)
• Poland:
– Solidarity Union crushed by Polish Military
Coup after Brezhnev threats to invade
• Foreign Policy Under Brezhnev
Brezhnev Foreign
Policy
– Collapse of Détente
• Afghan Invasion
– KILLS DÉTENTE
– USSR invades to keep a left wing gov’t PDPA in
power
– PDPA tries limit Islamic influence, emancipate
women etc.. and civil war breaks out
– Iran, Pakistan and probably CIA support
Muslim rebels
– PDPA President Taraki fails to defeat rebels
and is assassinated by H. Amin (USSR help)
– Amin fails and USSR sends in 85,000 troops
1979
– Carter responds
» SALT II ratification efforts ended,
embargo grain, Boycott Moscow Olympics,
increase defense spending
• Foreign Policy Under Brezhnev
Brezhnev Foreign
Policy
– Poland 1981
• Solidarity Union movement threatens Polish
Communist Party
• USSR threatens invasion if Poles don’t act
• Debt crisis forces wage cuts, price increases that
leads to massive strikes 1980
• Polish Pope John Paul II elected and visits 1979
spurring nationalism
• 1980 General Jaruzelski takes over and declares
martial law (Ends 1983) and USSR relieved
• West split
– Europe trade sanctions v. Poland ignores USSR
– Reagan embargoes high-tech to USSR too and
stalls gas pipeline
– Europeans furious and US eventually gives up
• Foreign Policy Under Brezhnev
Brezhnev Foreign
Policy
• The Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) or “Star
Wars”
– “Evil Empire” speech 1983 and second speech
unveils space based defense nickname Star
Wars
– Soviets fear tech edge (Never deployed)
• Reagan v. Andropov
– KAL Airline 007 flight shot down when it strays
over USSR territory 269 killed, False Missile
launch warning by USSR radar system
– Able Archer War Scare 1983
» 10 day command post exercise to simulate
buildup to nuclear exchange
» USSR thinks it is real
» Reagan election, fierce anti-Soviet rhetoric,
probing of Soviet defenses (sea and air) KAL
have relations at all-time low
» War scare as Soviets think exercise is real
» Some argue we are close to war