Joint Strategic Needs
Assessment
2011-12
Barrow in Furness Locality
Stakeholder Panel
Wednesday 16th November
Content
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Introduction to the JSNA
Background & context
Demand on health and social care system
Long-term conditions
Mental health & well-being
Living conditions & health inequalities
Lifestyle & behaviours
Summary
Welcome
• Welcome to the JSNA locality stakeholder panel
• Purpose – to begin the process of developing an
enhanced JSNA for Cumbria
• This is the responsibility of the Health and Wellbeing
Board
• Plan to have this in place by April 2012
• Feeds in to the Joint Health and Wellbeing Strategy
(June 2012)
What is a JSNA?
• Describes health and wellbeing in Cumbria
• Describes strategic direction of services
• Based on wide range of current information
and evidence
• JSNA products, county and locality
narratives, online information
Who is involved?
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Cumbria County Council
NHS Cumbria
Cumbria Intelligence Observatory
District Councils
Third Sector
LINKs
Probation, police and other partners
Why do we need a JSNA?
• Current JSNA needs to be updated
• Important role in the Health and Social Care Bill
• HWWB role in Joint Health and Wellbeing Strategy
and JSNA
• JSNA supports the Joint Health and Wellbeing
Strategy (JHWBS)
• Commissioning Plans 2013 need to take account of
JHWBS
What are the challenges?
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Ageing Population
Mental health and alcohol issues
Health of children and young people
Health inequalities
What do we want from you?
• Your ideas and feedback on the information
presented
• Views on local needs and priorities
• Information on local strengths and assets
• Help to develop a local narrative for JSNA
Overall Deprivation Score
Dalton North
Hawcoat
Hindpool
Central
Barrow Island
Roosecote
Source: Indices of Deprivation 2010
Health Deprivation Score
Source: Indices of Deprivation 2010
Life Expectancy
Life Expectancy
Source: Office for National Statistics
Healthy Life Expectancy
Rurality
England
Cumbria
Urban > 10K - Less Sparse
Urban > 10K - Sparse
Tow n and Fringe - Less Sparse
Tow n and Fringe - Sparse
Source: Office for National
Statistics, 2010
Village, Hamlet & Isolated Dw ellings - Less Sparse
Village, Hamlet & Isolated Dw ellings - Sparse
Barrow in Furness
Rurality Aged 65+
England
Cumbria
Urban > 10K - Less Sparse
Urban > 10K - Sparse
Tow n and Fringe - Less Sparse
Tow n and Fringe - Sparse
Source: Office for National
Statistics, 2010
Village, Hamlet & Isolated Dw ellings - Less Sparse
Village, Hamlet & Isolated Dw ellings - Sparse
Barrow in Furness
Barriers to Services & Housing
Ormsgill
Roosecote
Source: Indices of Deprivation, 2010
Context – Barrow in Furness Population
0-14
80
15-64
65+
“Known”
Forecasted
Population (000s)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
Source: Office for National Statistics
2001
2005
2009
Year
2013
2017
2021
2025
2029
2033
Median Household Income (£)
Source: CACI Paycheck, 2011
People and Communities
STRENGTHS
WEAKNESSES
Barrow is the second largest urban
settlement in Cumbria
The Borough has experienced overall loss
of population since 1991
Recorded unemployment is low
Levels of worklessness are amongst the
highest in the UK
Employment in the town has grown in the
period 2003-2008
There are concentrations of deprivation in
the town centre wards
Some parts of the Borough achieve very
high levels of attainment in education
Educational attainment is generally below
Cumbrian and regional averages
Skill levels in the working population
compare well with Cumbrian Averages
Recent surveys indicate skills gaps in high
level occupations
Business and Enterprise
STRENGTHS
WEAKNESSES
The shipyard has recently expanded its
workforce to 5,200
The town is increasingly dependent upon
BAe Systems and submarine manufacture
Barrow hosts several large industrial
employers including BAe Systems
Several major industrial employers have
announced recent redundancies
There has also been growth in the service
sector up to 2008
Some of the service sector growth has
involved public sector services
Tourism numbers and spend has been
increasing from a relatively low base
Rates of new business formation compare
well with Cumbrian averages
Infrastructure & Environment
STRENGTHS
WEAKNESSES
Barrow has a distinctive urban form arising
from its industrial heritage
Barrow also has historic tourism assets
and an attractive coast and rural areas
Barrow is a self-contained housing market
area and there is sufficient supply of
housing
Around half of the stock of housing predates 1919 and some is in very poor
condition
Barrow has a substantial supply of
avaliable employment land
Despite recent improvements, transport
links are disadvantageous
Community Safety
• Levels of crime are falling (5.1% since last year)
• Yet Barrow in Furness has the second highest rate of crime in
the county
• Levels of burglary at a dwelling, theft from a motor vehicle, theft
of a motor vehicle and domestic violence are rising
• Rates of alcohol specific mortality and hospital admissions
attributable to alcohol are rising. Barrow in Furness is in the
bottom 10% nationally in these measures
• The typical offender in Barrow in Furness is likely to be aged
18-30 years and male
• There is a clear correlation between levels of crime and
deprivation with crime and disorder most prevalent in Central
and Hindpool wards in Barrow
Housing
• The mean average house price in Barrow in
Furness is £111,852, over £55,000 less than
the county average of £167,455
• The mean housing affordability ratio for the
district is 3.9, compared to 5.2 for Cumbria
• 20.7% of households in Barrow in Furness
are fuel poor, less than the county average of
24.1%
Demand on the Health and
Social Care System
Per 1000 the population
Health Demand
Actual
Barrow in
Furness
Cumbria
Barrow in
Furness
Calls to Cumbria Health on Call
13,870
192
250
Less calls than
Cumbria
Admissions to hospital
10,047
139
115
More admissions
than Cumbria
Calls to the Ambulance Service
8,700
120
108
More calls than
Cumbria
Demand on the health and
Social Care System
Adults
• 2832 adult social care service users accessing 9821
services
• 1955 new referrals to adult social care services, with
847 resulting in a full assessment
Children
• 112 looked after children
• 263 core assessments completed
Demand on the Health and Social Care System
Adult Social Care
Barrow in Furness service users and services
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
no of service users
Learning Disabailities
Mental health
Physical Disabilities
Other
Number of Services
• 70% (1,977) of the adult service users are aged 65 and over
• Over 1,100 safeguarding alerts come into adult social care every year
Demand on the Health and Social Care System
Housing need (Adults)
Service Users
Take-up of long-term residential care places for the LA-supported population,
assuming projected falls in take-up of residential care
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Need for increase in alternative provision
(other than long-term residential care)
Future take-up of LA-funded long-term
residential care places (based on service
trends)
Total need for support currently met by LAfunded residential care
2009
Source: Planning 4 Care
2014
2019
2029
Demand on the Health and Social Care System
– Learning Disabilities
Allerdale
Barrow -in-Furness
Carlisle
Copeland
Eden
South Lakeland
12,000
10,000
2,002
2,048
2,094
2,132
1,958
994
1,015
1,031
1,049
972
6,000
1,316
1,348
1,374
1,398
1,420
4,000
2,029
2,098
2,156
2,208
2,276
1,306
1,319
1,322
1,325
1,335
1,762
1,790
1,807
1,834
1,862
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Number
8,000
2,000
0
2010-30 People aged 18 and over predicted to have a learning disability (Source: PANSI
and POPPI based on Emerson and Hatton)
Demand on the Health and Social Care System
– Dementia
Allerdale
Barrow-in-Furness
Carlisle
Copeland
Eden
South Lakeland
14,000
12,000
3,337
10,000
2,814
Number
1,506
2,371
8,000
1,269
2,076
6,000
1,058
1,823
893
739
4,000
859
1,395
2,000
1,388
1,140
989
1,628
2,430
2,074
1,804
1,582
1,300
1,517
1,129
923
989
1,506
1,740
2,107
2,396
1,336
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
0
Figure 14: 2010-2030 The number of people aged over 65 years predicted
to have dementia (Source: POPPI)
Long-term Conditions, Chronic Illness and Disabilities
Years of life lost from Cancer
Cumbria
North West
England
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Allerdale
Barrow
Carlisle
Copeland
Eden
South
Lakeland
Source: National Centre for Health Outcomes Development, 2007-2009
Long-term Conditions, Chronic Illness and Disabilities
Years of life lost from Circulatory Disease
Cumbria
North West
England
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Allerdale
Barrow
Carlisle
Copeland
Eden
Source: National Centre for Health Outcomes Development, 2007-2009
South
Lakeland
Long-term Conditions, Chronic Illness and Disabilities
% of working age population with a disability
Cumbria
North West
England
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Allerdale
Barrow
Carlisle
Source: Annual Population Survey, 2011
Copeland
Eden
South
Lakeland
Long-term Conditions, Chronic Illness and Disabilities
% of children (0-16years) entitled to Disability Living Allowance
Cumbria
North West
England
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
Allerdale
Barrow
Source: Annual Population Survey, 2011
Carlisle
Copeland
Eden
South
Lakeland
Mental Health and Well Being
% happy or very happy with life
Cumbria
North West
England
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Allerdale Barrow Carlisle Copeland Eden
Source: Quality of Life Survey, 2006
South
Lakeland
Mental Health and Well Being
% satisfied with local area
Cumbria
North West
England
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Allerdale Barrow Carlisle Copeland Eden
Source: Place Survey Tracker 2009
South
Lakeland
Mental Health and Well Being
Estimated neurotic disorder per 1000
Cumbria
North West
England
250
200
150
100
50
0
Allerdale Barrow Carlisle Copeland Eden
Source: North East Public Health Observatory, 2008
South
Lakeland
Mental Health and Well Being
Admissions for deliberate self harm per 100,000
Cumbria
North West
England
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Allerdale Barrow Carlisle Copeland Eden
Source: North West Public Health Observatory, 2009-10
South
Lakeland
Mental Health and Well Being
Years of life lost from suicide
Rate
Cumbria
North West
England
40
30
20
10
0
Allerdale Barrow Carlisle Copeland Eden
Source: National Centre for Health Outcomes Development, 2009-10
South
Lakeland
Living Conditions and Health Inequalities
Infant mortality per 1000 births
Rate
Cumbria
North West
England
Carlisle Copeland
Eden
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Allerdale Barrow
Source: National Centre for Health Outcomes Development, 2009
South
Lakeland
Living Conditions and Health Inequalities
% born with low birth weight (<2.5kg)
Cumbria
North West
England
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Allerdale Barrow
Carlisle Copeland
Eden
Source: National Centre for Health Outcomes Development, 2009
South
Lakeland
Living Conditions and Health Inequalities
Teenage pregnancy rate
Rate per 1000
Cumbria
North West
England
60
40
20
0
Allerdale Barrow CarlisleCopeland Eden
Source: Office for National Statistics, 2007-2009
South
Lakeland
Living Conditions and Health Inequalities
% children living in poverty
Cumbria
North West
England
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Allerdale Barrow
Source: HMRC, 2009
Carlisle Copeland
Eden
South
Lakeland
Living Conditions and Health Inequalities
Claimant to vacancy ratio
Rate
Cumbria
Great Britain
England
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Allerdale Barrow Carlisle Copeland Eden
Source: Office for National Statistics, 2011
South
Lakeland
Living Conditions and Health Inequalities
% working age adults with level 4 or greater education
Cumbria
North West
England
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Allerdale Barrow
Carlisle Copeland
Source: Annual Population Survey, 2010
Eden
South
Lakeland
Living conditions and Health Inequalities
% working age adults with disabilities in employment
Cumbria
North West
England
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Allerdale Barrow Carlisle Copeland Eden
Source: Annual Population Survey, 2010
South
Lakeland
Living conditions and Health Inequalities
Excess winter deaths
Cumbria
North West
England
30
20
%
10
0
Allerdale Barrow Carlisle Copeland Eden
Source: North West Public Health Observatory, 2006-2009
South
Lakeland
Living Conditions and Health Inequalities
% of people who agree they can influence decisions in their area
Cumbria
North West
England
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Allerdale Barrow
Source: Place Survey Tracker, 2009
Carlisle Copeland
Eden
South
Lakeland
Lifestyle and Behaviours
Estimated smoking prevalence
Cumbria
North West
England
35
30
25
20
%
15
10
5
0
Allerdale
Barrow
Carlisle
Copeland
Source: North West Public Health Observatory, 2009-2010
Eden
South
Lakeland
Lifestyle and Behaviours
Smoking during pregnancy per 100 maternities
Cumbria
North West
England
20
15
10
5
0
Allerdale
Barrow
Carlisle Copeland
Source: North West Public Health Observatory, 2009-2010
Eden
South
Lakeland
Lifestyle and Behaviours
Hospital admissions due to alcohol
Cumbria
North West
England
Rate per 100,000
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Allerdale
Barrow
Carlisle
Copeland
Source: Local Alcohol Profiles for England, 2009-2010
Eden
South
Lakeland
Lifestyle and Behaviours
% reporting drunk and rowdy behaviour as a problem
Cumbria
North West
England
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Allerdale
Barrow
Source: Place Survey, 2008
Carlisle
Copeland
Eden
South
Lakeland
Lifestyle and Behaviours
Estimated prevalence of drug misuse (crack and opiates) per 1,000
people
Cumbria
North West
England
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Allerdale
Barrow
Carlisle
Copeland
Source: North West Public Health Observatory, 2008-2009
Eden
South
Lakeland
Lifestyle and Behaviours
% of people engaging in moderate intensity sport and recreation
Cumbria
North West
England
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Allerdale
Barrow
Carlisle
Copeland
Source: North West Public Health Observatory, 2009-2010
Eden
South
Lakeland
Lifestyle and Behaviours
Healthy eating among adults
Cumbria
North West
England
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Allerdale
Barrow
Carlisle
Copeland
Source: North West Public Health Observatory, 2006-2008
Eden
South
Lakeland
Lifestyle and Behaviours
% of children participating in PE
Cumbria
North West
England
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Allerdale
Barrow
Carlisle
Copeland
Source: North West Public Health Observatory, 2009-2010
Eden
South
Lakeland
Lifestyle and Behaviours
% of year six children obese
Cumbria
North West
England
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Allerdale
Barrow
Carlisle
Copeland
Source: National Child Measurement Programme, 2009-2010
Eden
South
Lakeland