General Aviation
Myths & Realities:
Preparing Your Airport for What’s
Ahead
April 20,2010
SEC-AAAE Annual Conference
Next Year Will Arrive in 2011-ish
"Forecasting future events is often like searching for a
black cat in an unlit room, that may not even be
there. "
--Steve Davidson in The Crystal Ball.
"If you can look into the seeds of time, and say which
grain will grow and which will not, speak then unto
me. "
--William Shakespeare
"It is far better to foresee even without certainty than
not to foresee at all. "
--Henri Poincare in The Foundations of Science
Forecasting is the art of saying what will happen, and
then explaining why it didn't! “
--Anon.
Historical Impact Factors
 Economic Cycles
 Fuel Shocks
 Transitory Events
 Product/Manufacturer Liability
 Tax Incentives
250,000
50,000
Bonus
Depreciation
40,000
150,000
30,000
100,000
20,000
50,000
10,000
Oil
Spike
Oil Spike
Oil Spike
Recessions
Active Aircraft
2009E
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
0
1981
0
1980
Active Aircraft
200,000
Hours Flown
Source: FAA, L&B
Hours Flown (in thousands)
General
Aviation
Revitalization
Act
GA Fleet & Primary Use
 Small piston aircraft dominate the U.S. general aviation
fleet. Business jet and turboprop aircraft still have
relatively small share of the market
 Almost two thirds of U.S. general aviation is for business
or commercial purposes
 Piston aircraft are deployed in more discretionary uses
than turboprop and jet aircraft
# of Aircraft % of Total
Personal
Business
163,013
89%
8,906
5%
12%
88%
11,042
6%
15%
85%
182,961
100%
47%
53%
Piston
Turboprop
Business Jet
37%
63%
Source: FAA, L&B
Segmentation tells a story…
 Prolonged decline in single engine piston use masks
growth in business jet and turboprop segments
 Business jet aircraft utilization increased threefold
between 1994 and 2006. Segment most effected by
recent recession
 Turboprop utilization has more than doubled
Index of Hours Flown by Aircraft Type:
350
Total Hours Flown
Jet
300
Piston
200
150
100
50
2009E
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
0
1994
Index (1990=100)
Turboprop
250
Source: FAA, L&B
Business GA Market Drivers…
 Economic Growth
 Fractional Ownership
 Corporate Profits
 Value of Time
 Public Perception
 Metro Airport Congestion
 Commercial Airline Product  Security (TSA)
Percent Change in Real U.S. GDP
5.0%
Historical
4.0%
Forecast
4.0%
4.0%
Annual Percent Change
3.0%
2.0%
3.2%
1.0%
Long Term
2.7% AAG
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-2.4%
-3.0%
-4.0%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve.
Private GA Market Drivers…
 Cost of Fuel!
 Cost of Fuel!!
 Personal Liability
 Socio-Economic Factors
 Aviation Career Opportunities
Crude Oil Prices Per Barrel (In 2008$)
$120
Actual
Forecast
$111
$87
$80
$60
$40
$20
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
$0
1990
Crude Oil ($ per Barrel)
$98
$100
$100
$104
Source: EIA
Green Shoots or Yellow Weeds…
Bombardier Business Jet Fleet Forecast :
2009-2018
FAA Forecast 2009-2030:
CAGR
Active Aircraft:
Piston
Turboprop
Jet
Total
Hours Flown:
Piston
Turboprop
Jet
Total
0.1%
1.4%
4.2%
0.5%
1.0%
1.7%
6.1%
2.3%
World Wide Delivery Units
Worldwide CAGR
North America Delivery Units
North America CAGR
11,500
6.0%
5,400
4.0%
Rolls Royce Market Outlook:
2009-2028
VLJ's
Small Business Jets
Medium Business Jets
Large Business Jets
Busines Jet Total
Honeywell Business Aviation Outlook
2009-2019
Business Jet Delivery Units
Long Range
Large
Medium
Light
Very Light
Personal Jets
11,000
1,500
1,000
2,400
2,400
2,800
1,000
CAGR
14.7%
1.8%
3.3%
7.9%
4.4%
Is Airport Closure an Option…
“The FAA has only rarely granted a sponsor a release from its Federal
obligations sufficient to allow for the closure of an airport, and then only in
very unusual circumstances. A request for airport closure from a sponsor
requires a demonstration that closure results in a net benefit to aviation.
Because of the important role that this Airport plays, the FAA does not
anticipate granting any request for release to allow closure of the Airport. The
Airport is and will continue to be too valuable for that to occur.”
 The majority of U.S. airports are federally obligated
 Grant assurances that obligate the airport sponsor
will require the facility to be operated for a set
amount of time (normally 20 years)
 There is no limit to the duration of obligations for
airport property acquired with federal monies
 Private airports for public and private use have and
will fail
Demand or supply…what’s the
hurdle?
Airport
Competition
Catchment
Area
Profile
Monitor
Activity
Trends
Market
Capture
Facility
Benchmarking
Facility
Inventory
Local &
Itinerant
User Survey
Market
Potential
Local
Business
Survey
Financial
Position/
Funding
Tenant
Aircraft
Purchase
Plans
Runway Requirements…
 Define Critical Aircraft
 Part 91, Part 91K, Part 135 operations
 Minimum Standards/Insurance
Long Range
Jet
Gulfstream 500
Global Express
Gulfstream 450
Large Jet
Falcon 2000EX/LX
Hawker 4000
Citation X
Midsize Jet
Gulfstream 150
Hawker 900
Hawker 750
Learjet 35
Light Jet
Citation Encore
Hawker 400
Phenom 100
VLJ
Citation Mustang
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Runway Length
4,000
5,000
6,000
Note: Assumes MTOW, ISA, Sea Level
Impact on Airside Planning Standards…
 Re-visit Airport Role in State System Plan & NPIAS
 Community Implications
 On-Airport Land Use (Non-precision approaches)
 Financial & Funding Considerations
A-I
Cessna
172
B-I
Phenom
100
B-II
Cessna
Citation II
B-II
Cessna
Citation II
C-III
Gulfstream
V
1,632’
3,400’
3,360’
3,360’
5,930’
Approach Minimum
(statute miles)
>= ¾
Small Only
<¾
>= ¾
<¾
<¾
Runway Safety
Area (RSA) - Width
120’
300’
150’
300’
500’
RSA – Length
Beyond R/W End
240’
600’
300’
600’
1,000’
Object Free Area
(OFA) – Width
250’
800’
500’
800’
800’
OFA – Length
Beyond R/W End
240’
600’
300’
600’
1,000’
150’ Small
Only
250’
240’
300’
400’
Standard
Minimum Runway
Length
Runway to
Taxiway C/L
Separation
Case Study 1 (Dayton Wright Bros)…
 Benefit Cost Analysis
 Removal of 590 ft. displaced threshold allowing for
full use of 5,000 foot Runway 20
 Full ILS for Runway 20
 Primary beneficiaries B-II design category jets
Displaced Threshold
Relocate Austin Road
Relocate utility corridor along Austin Road modifications
Relocate airport security fence
New airport service roadway
New runway blast pad
New PAPI system (remove VASI-4)
Eliminate current 590-foot displaced threshold
Installation of MALSR approach light system (remove existing MALS)
Upgrade the existing Runway 20 localizer unit
Add runway 20 glide slope, RVR (2), outer marker
Runway marking, lighting and signage
Property Acquisition and Land Swap within the Runway 20 approach area
Future aviation easements within the Runway 20 approach area
Re-grading of the runway safety area
Runway obstruction mitigation
Relocate Miami Township Maintenance Facility
1" = 300'
150
0
Graphic Scale in Feet
N
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
300
DRAFT
RSA STUDY
ALT-1 R/W 20
F ile: W :\DW B\RSA ST UDY\RSA Sutdy ALT-1 (Future ALP).dwg
| Layout: RW 20
Exhibit
2
Case Study 2 (Gnoss Field)…
 The current runway length of 3,300 feet limits the
ability of current Airport tenants to operate aircraft
at optimum weight for maximum efficiency
 The Airport needs to comply with current FAA
standards for Runway Safety Areas (RSAs)
4,400 feet
Critical Aircraft: Citation 525
1,100-foot runway/
taxiway extension
Runway Approach Lighting…
 Business and
corporate operators
want ability to
operate at night
under instrument
conditions
 Land availability
considerations
 MALSR gives CAT I
type capability
 MALSF option based
on land availability,
could affect
minimums
Navigational Aids…
 Precision Approaches
• ILS- (Glide Slope, Localiser-DME, Marker
Beacons)
• GPS – Global Position System
• RNP – Required Navigation Performance
 Non-Precision Approaches
• VOR – Very High Frequency Omni-range
• RNAV - Area Navigation (GPS-LNAV, VNAV,
LPV)
 LAAS (Local Area Augmentation System)
 WAAS (Wide Area Augmentation System)
 Radar Approaches
• PAR – Precision Approach Radar
• ASR – Airport Surveillance Radar
The fuel dichotomy…
 Jet aircraft account for 17 percent of general
aviation hours flown but almost 75 percent of total
fuel consumed
 Greater emphasis on JetA and full service fueling
 Should airport allow non FBO tenants to establish
self fueling capabilities?
 Price of fuel should reflect level of service
Total Fuel Consumption
(2008, in gallons)
14 gph
Piston
13%
13%
94 gph
Turboprop
365 gph
74%
Business Jet
Source: FAA
A more demanding customer base…
Hangars
(Long Term/
Overnight)
Oxygen/
Nitrogen
Service
Towing
Equipment
Jet
Aircraft
Maintenance
Aircraft
De-Icing
Courtesy
Transportation/
Ground Access
Fuel Tanks
Extended
Hours
of Operation
Services/
Facilities
Business
Center/
Wifi
Weather/
Flight
Planning
Facility
Customer
Check In
Counter/
Lounge Area
Pilot/Crew
Lounge
THANK YOU!!!!
Contact:
Dil Gruffydd
[email protected]
513-305-2264 (cell)
513-530-1226 (office)
Contact:
Monica Geygan
[email protected]
513-319-8299 (cell)
513-530-1207 (office)
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General Aviation Myths & Realities