Forces of nature
Climate data information
UCAR
External Forces
Or
Internal Forces
Warming
(Greenhouse effect)
Cooling
(Reflecting sunlight)
Climate Change
Global Warming
1. Natural
1. U.V. Radiation
2. Natural Cycles
1. Milankivitch
2. Solar spots
3. GHG
1. CO2, H2O, CH4, 03, N2O
2. Anthropogenic
1. Increase in GHG
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Proxy evidence:
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Early atmosphere :CH4, N2O, CO2
Increase in plants decreased CO2 levels planet
cooled off
Yet warm enough to have palm trees at the
poles
Vostok Ice core: Supports Milankovitch
cycles, gradual change
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Also showed rapid change, why?
GOCB
 Cold Salty water is more dense, Fresh water
freezes faster, would stop GOCB,
Entered ocean from melting ice
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Change in CO2 levels has not been explained,
just correlation
Past 150 years
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19 of the 20 warmest years on record occurred
since 1980
If fresh water is added to the marine water it
becomes less dense and will not sink
The combo water stalls the GOCB
Places like Ireland will become much colder
Milankovitch cycles
Eccentricity : Earth gets closer and farther away from the
sun on 100,000 year intervals
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1895 Svante Arrhenius: predicted CO2 from
coal combustion would increase global
temps
Keeling curve
 Global surface temperatures don’t match
atmosphere increases
 POD: Cooling of Ocean temperatures
 Increased volcanic action
 Reduction in O3
A series of small volcanoes since 2000 that
have spewed sunlight-blocking ash skyward
The natural 11-year solar cycle, whose
declining phase lasted longer than usual:
from 2000 to 2009
Variations in the exchange of heat between
the ocean and atmosphere
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Oceans have been
absorbing energy
POD event 10 yr cycle
Since 2000 more volcanic
activity
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Aerosols Sulfates
Sun spots solar flares
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Less Energy from sun
Urban heat islands cause _________ which can lead to______
Increased energy consumption:
high peak demand and increased chance of blackouts or brownouts.
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Increased demand in energy;
greater greenhouse gas emissions;
higher temperatures.
Increased demand in energy;
greater emission in pollutants from power plants.;
formation of ground-level ozone.
Increased demand in energy ,
greater emission in pollutants from power plants;
Compromised human health and comfort: Warmer days and nights, along with
higher air pollution levels, can contribute to general discomfort, respiratory
difficulties, heat cramps and exhaustion, non-fatal heat stroke, and heatrelated mortality.
Hot pavement and rooftop surfaces; the transfer their excess heat to
stormwater, which then drains into storm sewers and raises water
temperatures as it is released into streams, rivers, ponds, and lakes. Rapid
temperature changes can be stressful to aquatic ecosystems. Impaired water
quality:
Planetary Albedo
1. Natural
a. Volcanoes
b. Snow/Ice
c. Clouds
2. Anthropogenic
a. Aerosols
i. dust
ii. soot
POSITIVE FEEDBACK
LOOP
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GOCB will stall and lower global temperature
Sea levels will rise and flood coastal areas
Climates change
Arctic: permafrost is melting buildings and
infrastructures are changing
 Local cultures face extinction
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Seasons lengths will change
Summers longer increase in insect populations that carry
disease
 Cause a change in migration patterns,
 Change in growing patterns, animals will migrate farter
north
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Increase of
temperature 2.5-10°F
by 2100 (IPCC)
Less snowpack in
western U.S.
Increase in rain fed
crop yield 5-20%,
More frequent and
intense heat waves in
cites that currently
have them
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Reduced energy use:
Reduced air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions:
Improved human health and comfort:
Enhanced stormwater management and water quality:
Improved quality of life:
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Kyoto protocol
Cap and Trade
Voluntary limits