The Future of Warfare:
Where Do We Stand?
William Reno
Northwestern University
reno@northwestern.edu, www.willreno.org
Studying change in warfare: Focus
on components or logics?
1.
2.
3.
4.
Actors
Goals
Methods
Resources
What changes the logics of violence and what
are the consequences of these changes for the
components of warfare?
Past Futures of Warfare: Dar es Salaam, 1965: Why
these particular actors, goals, methods, resources?
US activist Cora Weiss with African liberation movement leaders. Back from
left: Pascoal Mocumbi, Frente de Libertação de Moçambique [FRELIMO];
Eduardo Mondlane, President of FRELIMO; Weiss; Amilcar Cabral, President of
the Partido Africano da Independência da Guiné e Cabo Verde [PAICG].
[African activist archive, MSU]
Past Futures of Warfare
Narratives of conflict [Solidarity Poster of Africa’s Future, c.1970, from
Inkworks Press, Berkeley, CA]
Present futures of warfare – What
has changed?
• Networks: New or just more intense versions
of old ones?
• Cultural narratives: These have always played
roles in conflicts, but more now?
• Communication: A qualitative or a
quantitative change?
• Internal character of state authority:
Present Futures of Warfare: Incorporating more
networks, such as cocaine trafficking
[From David Blair, “Special Report: West Africa welcomes Latin America’s
drug barons,” Telegraph, 3 Dec 2008.]
Present futures: Shifts in global narratives, new
ways of expressing identities
Freetown, Sierra Leone street scene: West Side Boys & Tupac imagery
Telecommunications:
Mobile phone service reaches everywhere (Batkano, Sierra Leone in the
2000s.)
State authority & symmetrical
irregular warfare
Sierra Leone highway in 1990
Sierra Leone highway in 2013
STATUS – OTHER ARMED GROUPS – SOUTH SUDAN
AKOKA
FORCE
MABAN
FORCES
ALLAK DENG
FACTION
James Othow
500 (2116)
Thon Amum
100 (410)
Musa Birima
50 (250)
14
15
THE UNITED
FACTION
SOBAT
FORCE
MELUT
PEACE FORCE
SABRI ACHOL
FORCES
Allak Deng
500 (150)
ABOY
GROUP
Paul Aboy
100 (300)
Simon Yei
300 (500)
William deng
2000 (300)
Sabin Achol
100 (445)
27
8
19
26
16
29
MUSA DOULA
FACTION
Musa Doula
500 (300)
RENK
PEACE FORCE
CHOL LEWIS
FACTION
Chol Al Ahmar
100 (400)
28
Chol Lewis
200 (1227)
24
25
ADONG
FORCE
SSDF – ABYEY
Thomas Thiel
50 (600)
John Mankoer
100 (413)
6
17
PARIANG
FORCES
MOBILE
FORCES
Samuel Mayiek
300 (1500)
Vincent Kuany
500 (866)
4
10
DINNI
FORCES
SSUM/A
Paulino Matiep
500 (2500)
Hassan Doyak
200 (500)
1
32
SSIM/A
CHAYOT
FACTION
Peter Dor
400 (1900)
Saddam Chayot
400 (950)
(K-7)
3
21/22
BALKOK
POP. DEF.
AWEIL
GROUP
Hassan Doyak
200 (500)
Abdel Bagi
200 (1500)
30
37/38
KALTOK
FORCES
GADET’S
FORCES
Peter Gadet
100 (350)
5
FANGAK
FORCES
Gabriel Mding Fon
50 (250)
LEGEND
The locations/areas on this map are approximate. Names, sectors, locations,
alignements, affiliation are to be verified.
31
CHOL GAGA
GROUP
Aligned with SPLA.
Aligned with SAF.
Mainly aligned with SAF. Some sub-units aligned with SPLA.
Reportedly aligned with SPLA. To be verified.
Part of SSDF (prior to the Juba declaration).
Associated, but not officially an integrated part of SSDF.
Sometimes referredto as Central Equatoria Defence Forces.
SSDF originators (Khartoum Peace Agreement).
Originated from Anyanya 2
Gabriel Tang
500 (3350)
11
NATIONAL
PEACE FORCE
El Tom El Nur
100 (3000)
36
DOLEIB
FORCES
Thomas Mabor
100 (1127)
Hassan Doyak
100 (500)
23
NASIR
POP. DEF.
John Jok
100 (300)
20
NASIR
GROUP
Gordon Kong
400 (3500)
Originated from SPLA
Mainly emerged after the Juba declaration. Splinter groups/re-hatted PDF.
9
JEBEL
FORCES II
7
AKOBO
FORCES
SAF garrisons/locations. SAF/OAG/PDF/MI-elements often co-located.
SPLA deployment areas/locations.
John Both Tap
500 (1350)
Timothy Juoc
300 (650)
34
12
W. EQUATORIA
DEF. FORCE
xxx
50 (150)
50
MUNDARI
FORCES
W. EQUATORIA
POP. DEF.
Clement Wani
400 (4900)
Steward Soroba
50 (100)
39
49
BAR EL JEBEL
FORCES
Paulino Lonyombe
500 (950)
45
TOPOSA
FORCES
Chief Lokipapa
50 (600)
44
EDF-SSDF
(EDF II)
Fabiano Odongi
500 (2850)
43
BOYA/DIDINGA
FORCES
Mahamed Losek
50 (180)
47
LAFON
FORCES
Kamal R. Beligo
50 (100)
48
BOR
GROUP
Kelia Deng Kelly
100 (230)
46
PIBOR
DEF. FORCE
SIMON
GATWICH
Ismael Konyi
1000 (4000)
Simon Gatwich
150 (2000)
40/41
35
SSLM/A
Gabriel Yoal Doc
500 (700)
33
What is a “network” in the context of a state that has very weak
bureaucracies? [And what is on Riek Machar’s reading table?]
The uses of an AK-47 in the mind of the artist
The puzzle of why narratives in really awful places remain so parochial:
[The wall of a medical clinic, Lofa County, Liberia during the LURD
offensive, 2003]
New social structures of Violence: Slightly demobilized
RUF, Sierra Leone
Observe the attire: Distinguishing units and commander position and
associations by footwear, 1999
As go states, so goes the future of Warfare.
Think of wars & states: Where one finds ‘Conventional’ states, one tends
to find armed groups with bureaucratic hierarchies. Where modernist
visions of states fail, so goes the vision of unified armed groups.
The End: ECOMOG position, Monrovia
Sometime back in the ‘90s